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China Gold International Resources Corp (2099) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$54.1B (≈ $6.9B) · ISIN CA16890P1036

What is China Gold International Resources Corp really worth?

CG China Gold International Resources Corp 2099 · HK
PriceHK$259.60
Fair ValueHK$147.41
Upside−43.2%
Quality89/100

A strong business, but trading 76% above our fair value of HK$147.41.

Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 41.3% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 97/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.7 %/yr)
!The models disagree: range HK$110.46 to HK$304.02

For context

·0.13% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$110.46 – HK$304.02

Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 12 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 24, 2026, revised from HK$18.48 to HK$147.41 (+697.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +26.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 89/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$110.46 to HK$304.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$273.40 HK$15.68 Fair Value HK$147.41 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$15.68 – HK$273.40 · fair‑value band HK$110.46 – HK$304.02 · the HK$259.60 price screens above the HK$147.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

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Analysis

China Gold International Resources Corp (2099) currently trades at HK$259.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$147.41, implying the stock looks roughly 76.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 89/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$35.29 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$259.60 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$16.02, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Gold International Resources Corp generated revenue of HK$1.5B at a net margin of 41.3%. Revenue grew 66.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.2%. Net debt stands at HK$148M. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$110.46 (bear case) to HK$304.02 (bull case); at HK$259.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 305% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −43%, 2099 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$4.85 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$1.29 to HK$55.86). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$26.05 HK$42.97 HK$92.53 75
EPV HK$12.14 HK$14.12 HK$15.85 74
Growth DCF HK$24.78 HK$47.75 HK$92.12 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$26.05 HK$42.97 HK$92.53 75
Owner Earnings HK$22.54 HK$50.93 HK$110.53 70
5Y Revenue Exit HK$10.10 HK$14.71 HK$23.21 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$17.52 HK$30.63 HK$54.57 72
5Y P/E Exit HK$18.14 HK$35.29 HK$57.17 68
10Y Revenue Exit HK$14.58 HK$22.96 HK$30.22 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.97 HK$37.23 HK$67.84 65
10Y P/E Exit HK$20.42 HK$38.43 HK$68.83 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$8.01 HK$55.86 HK$78.39 63
Lynch FV HK$17.11 HK$24.44 HK$31.78 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$17.11 HK$24.44 HK$31.78 57
EPV HK$12.14 HK$14.12 HK$15.85 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.7300 HK$1.53 HK$2.42 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.7300 HK$1.29 HK$1.60 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$15.02 HK$20.03 HK$25.03 63
P/S Multiple HK$3.72 HK$4.96 HK$6.20 58
P/B Multiple HK$13.11 HK$17.48 HK$21.84 55
EV/EBIT HK$15.68 HK$20.82 HK$25.95 66
EV/EBITDA HK$14.42 HK$19.14 HK$23.85 67
EV/Revenue HK$3.75 HK$5.24 HK$6.73 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.91 HK$3.90 HK$5.83 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$24.78 HK$47.75 HK$92.12 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.10 HK$16.02 HK$24.64 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$8.05 HK$11.39 HK$64.05 64
ROIC Compounder HK$15.20 HK$22.27 HK$31.88 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$21.28 HK$30.40 HK$39.52 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$35.29) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.29). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 11.2 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 3.99 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$7.52 price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 4.7%
Net margin 35.6% FY2025
Return on equity 29.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 59.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$1.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +66.0% 3y avg +5.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +175%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$639M FY2025
Net debt HK$148M FY2025 · ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 89/100

Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 6
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 94
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd., a gold and base metal mining company, acquires, explores, develops, and mines mineral resources in the People's Republic of China and Canada.

Full company description

China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd., a gold and base metal mining company, acquires, explores, develops, and mines mineral resources in the People's Republic of China and Canada. It holds 96.5% interest in the Chang Shan Hao gold mine (CSH mine) located in Inner Mongolia, China; and holds 100% interest in the Jiama copper-gold polymetallic mine that hosts copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, lead, and zinc metals located in Tibet, China. The company also engages in logistics and transport-related businesses, and investment holding activity, as well as operates an issuer of bonds. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Gold International Resources Corp reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $467M in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.3B
Latest YoY
+73.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (24Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+39.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+19.8% (19.7 + 0.1)
Revenue +3.6%/yr
FY21 $1.1B
FY22 $1.1B
FY23 $459M
FY24 $757M
FY25 $1.3B
Net income +15.0%/yr
FY21 $267M
FY22 $223M
FY23 −$25.5M
FY24 $62.7M
FY25 $467M

2099 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →

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China Gold International Resources Corp · Fair Value
HK$147.41 −76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Gold International Resources Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2099

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Gold International Resources Corp (2099) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$147.41 versus a price of HK$259.60, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2099?
Our model-based fair value for China Gold International Resources Corp is HK$147.41 (as of Aug 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$259.60.
What is the quality score of 2099?
China Gold International Resources Corp has a Quality Score of 89/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Gold International Resources Corp (2099)?
China Gold International Resources Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2099?
The net profit margin of China Gold International Resources Corp is about 41.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 41.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Gold International Resources Corp pay a dividend?
China Gold International Resources Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.13% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 24, 2026).
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