Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp $32.06, price $33.73, upside -5.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.15 – $41.23 · fair‑value band $19.52 – $58.50 · the $33.73 price screens above the $32.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States.
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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) currently trades at $33.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.06, implying the stock looks roughly 5.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $50.73 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $33.73 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.41, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $19.52 (bear) to $58.50 (bull), the price of $33.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp reported revenue of $396M in FY2025 versus $150M in FY2021, a compound +27.3%/yr. Reported net income was $244M in FY2025, compounding +52.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.9B · P/E ratio 22.6 · P/S ratio 14.0 · EPS (TTM) $1.49 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 61.7% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −5%, TFPM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $19.52Fair Value $32.06Bull $58.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9343 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.8%
’17
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’19
’20
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 59%
2025 sits 347% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.5% a year for the price and +15.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−53% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)69% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)67% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth79% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TFPM
Frequently asked questions
Is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.06 versus a price of $33.73, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TFPM?
Our model-based fair value for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is $32.06 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.73.
What is the quality score of TFPM?
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.06 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.52, optimistic scenario $58.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.06, about −5% upside versus a price of $33.73 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $19.52, optimistic scenario $58.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $453M (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
Does Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp pay a dividend?
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +30.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.6 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TFPM use?
Our models discount Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp that is +30.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp grew +28.6 % a year. The price currently implies +30.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (+30.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.35 %: that much free cash flow Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp it is $32.06 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of $33.73. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, TFPM trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.73, fair value $32.06, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TFPM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.06). For Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp the two are $1.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp worth?
The market values Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is $33.73; our models calculate a fair value of $32.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TFPM?
Our models span a range for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp: cautious scenario $19.52, base $32.06, optimistic $58.50 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price $33.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TFPM?
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.6 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 12.8, EV/EBITDA 16.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TFPM from its 52-week high?
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp trades at $33.73, about 19% below its 52-week high of $41.62 and 50% above the low of $22.44 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price $33.73, calculated fair value $32.06 (−5%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TFPM calculated?
We run Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $33.73. Our model-based fair value is $32.06, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($19.52 to $58.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
The market capitalisation of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is 14.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
Earnings per share at Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp are $1.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
The dividend yield of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is 0.7% (payout 15.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
The net margin of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is 61.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
The operating margin of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is 66.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
Revenue at Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is growing +78.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM)?
Earnings per share at Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp are growing +147% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) hold?
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp holds more cash than debt, $26.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 19, 2026