Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $5.8B
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp
TFPM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +17.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($10.40 to $30.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $8.15 – $41.23 · fair‑value band $10.40 – $30.21 · the $32.62 price screens above the $16.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) currently trades at $32.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.03, implying the stock looks roughly 50.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp generated revenue of $453M at a net margin of 68.7%. Revenue grew 78.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $26.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.40 (bear case) to $30.21 (bull case); at $32.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -51%, TFPM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($50.73) versus Dividend Discount ($3.41). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States.
Full company description
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure to copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, lithium, and zinc. The company was founded in 2016 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp reported revenue of $396M in FY2025 versus $150M in FY2021, a compound +27.3%/yr. Reported net income was $244M in FY2025, compounding +52.2%/yr from FY2021.
TFPM screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Fresnillo plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSX:TFPM) Is Up 8.9% After Q2 Earnings Jump And Higher Dividend - Has The Bull Case Changed?
- Triple Flag Announces Strong Q2 2026 Results and Increases Quarterly Dividend for the 5th Consecutive Year
- Triple Flag Increases Quarterly Dividend for the 5th Consecutive Year
- Will Triple Flag (TFPM) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?
Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresnillo plc FRES | 579.75 MXN | 558.30 MXN | -4% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $14.52 | $8.15 | -44% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $29.82 | $29.96 | +0% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $8.12 | $9.90 | +22% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$24.78 | C$18.48 | -25% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$32.98 | C$21.86 | -34% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥21.01 | ¥13.23 | -37% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$26.10 | C$5.85 | -78% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥13.15 | ¥2.84 | -78% |
| Al Masane Al Kobra Mining Company 1322 | 74.05 SAR | 53.08 SAR | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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