Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of Sibanye Gold Ltd $13.53, price $9.95, upside +36.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.10 – $20.56 · fair‑value band $6.47 – $16.72 · the $9.95 price screens below the $13.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia.
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The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium; chrome; lithium; zinc; nickel; and silver, cobalt, and copper. Sibanye Stillwater Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Weltevredenpark, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR (SBSW) currently trades at $9.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.53, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.35 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the $9.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.27, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.47 (bear) to $16.72 (bull), the price of $9.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR reported revenue of 120B ZAR in FY2025 versus 172B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −8.6%/yr. Reported net income was −4.8B ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $8.0B · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) $1.25 · Dividend yield 7.9% · Net margin −4.0% · Return on equity 34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 36%, SBSW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.47Fair Value $13.53Bull$16.72
Price $9.95 · Upside +36.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
34.1% (2020) → 18.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the price and +8.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The commodity metals miner lacks any evident durable advantages and shows weak profitability with negative net income and ROE plus elevated debt even after wage settlements back mechanized mining.
Main risk: Cyclical precious metals prices remain the biggest risk to the company's revenues and margins as a standard operator in this industry without protective advantages.
Sibanye-Stillwater has settled three-year wage agreements at its US PGM operations, ending strikes that began in September and allowing a full return to work this week. The deals back the shift to mechanized mining and team incentives while tying future raises partly to inflation. Will these changes lift output and efficiency enough to offset the higher fixed wage costs?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 99 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)34.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets−3.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)30.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth64.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.53 versus a price of $9.95, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SBSW?
Our model-based fair value for Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is $13.53 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.95.
What is the quality score of SBSW?
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.53 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.47, optimistic scenario $16.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.53, about +36% upside versus a price of $9.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.47, optimistic scenario $16.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $165B (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.87% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.2 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SBSW use?
Our models discount Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR that is +9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR grew -1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR (+9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.09 %: that much free cash flow Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR it is $13.53 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $9.95. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, SBSW trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.95, fair value $13.53, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBSW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.53). For Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR the two are $3.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR at about $8.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $9.95; our models calculate a fair value of $13.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBSW?
Our models span a range for Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $6.47, base $13.53, optimistic $16.72 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $9.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SBSW?
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.53 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.0 (the reported result was a loss).
How solid is the balance sheet of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 34.7%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBSW from its 52-week high?
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR trades at $9.95, about 52% below its 52-week high of $20.56 and 24% above the low of $8.00 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, China Gold International Resources Corp, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $9.95, calculated fair value $13.53 (+36%), Quality Score 44/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBSW calculated?
We run Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was $9.95. Our model-based fair value is $13.53, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. A fairly wide model range ($6.47 to $16.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
The market capitalisation of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is $8.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is 0.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
Earnings per share at Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR are $1.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
The dividend yield of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is 7.9% (payout 62.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
The net margin of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is −4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is 17.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
The operating margin of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
Revenue at Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is growing +64.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW)?
Earnings per share at Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR are growing −38.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sibanye Gold Ltd (SBSW) carry?
The net debt of Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR is $27.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 14, 2026