Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR (SBSW) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $7.7B · ISIN US82575P1075
What is Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR really worth?
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR
SBSW · US
A solid business, trading 40% below our fair value of $19.63.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from $19.44 to $19.63 (+1.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +34.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.10 – $20.56 · fair‑value band $14.96 – $25.43 · the $11.85 price screens below the $19.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR (SBSW) currently trades at $11.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.63, implying the stock looks roughly 39.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.11 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the $11.85 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.33, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR generated revenue of $130B at a net margin of −4.0%. Revenue grew 31.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −10.3%. Net debt stands at $27.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.96 (bear case) to $25.43 (bull case); at $11.85, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at 66%, SBSW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($26.11) versus Dividend Discount ($0.3732). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium; chrome; lithium; zinc; nickel; and silver, cobalt, and copper.
Full company description
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium; chrome; lithium; zinc; nickel; and silver, cobalt, and copper. Sibanye Stillwater Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Weltevredenpark, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR reported revenue of 120B ZAR in FY2025 versus 172B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −8.6%/yr. Reported net income was −4.8B ZAR in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Sibanye Stillwater (JSE:SSW) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher As Analysts Back Organic Growth
- Sibanye Stillwater (JSE:SSW) Stock Fair Value Falls After Mixed Analyst Revisions
- Sibanye Stillwater appeals U.S. trade ruling over Russian palladium import dumping
- Is Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) One of the Best African Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds?
Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,480 IDR | 1,021 IDR | −77% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $21.43 | $8.14 | −62% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $35.12 | $29.53 | −16% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$45.40 | C$25.80 | −43% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$43.62 | C$21.85 | −50% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $32.25 | $16.03 | −50% |
| PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. MBMA | 545.00 IDR | 82.43 IDR | −85% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$34.90 | C$5.80 | −83% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥19.06 | ¥2.84 | −85% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥21.30 | ¥13.23 | −38% |
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