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Prudential plc (2378) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Prudential plc HK$112, price HK$95.00, upside +18.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Prudential plc
2378 · HKSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value HK$112.32 · Undervalued (+18.2%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +69.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.3% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 79/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$55.47 – HK$152.26 · fair‑value band HK$79.10 – HK$145.71 · the HK$95.00 price screens below the HK$112.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Prudential plc, through its subsidiaries, provides life and health insurance, and asset management solutions to individuals in Asia and Africa. It offers savings and investments products; and wealth, health, and protection products. The company was founded in 1848 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Prudential plc (2378) currently trades at HK$95.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$112.32, implying the stock looks roughly 15.4% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$118.17 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$95.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$30.70, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$79.10 (bear) to HK$145.71 (bull), the price of HK$95.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Prudential plc reported revenue of $27.4B in FY2025 versus $26.5B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $4.1B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$267B (≈ $34.1B) · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 1.32 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.4900 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 14.8% · Return on equity 20.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 18%, 2378 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$79.10
Fair Value HK$112.32
Bull HK$145.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1694 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
HK$82.63
HK$118.17
HK$234.33
69
Gordon GGM
HK$17.51
HK$36.41
HK$57.76
64
DDM Multi-Stage
HK$17.51
HK$30.70
HK$38.21
64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
HK$17.51
HK$36.41
HK$57.76
64
DDM Multi-Stage
HK$17.51
HK$30.70
HK$38.21
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
HK$124.53
HK$166.04
HK$207.55
63
P/B Multiple
HK$66.45
HK$88.60
HK$110.75
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
HK$31.64
HK$42.40
HK$63.29
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
HK$82.63
HK$118.17
HK$234.33
69
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Profitability
37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−22.0% vs −19.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.2% a year for the price.
Watch 2378, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Prudential PLC's Dividend Analysis
- Prudential PLC (PUK) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Strategic Progress
- Prudential, HSBC Shares Tumble on China Insurance Tax Report
- AIA, Prudential Chase Asia's Wealth Insurance Boom
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.43 | ¥49.98 | +34% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥53.29 | ¥67.19 | +26% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$73.75 | HK$41.69 | −43% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | $42.59 | $27.37 | −36% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $94.35 | $54.39 | −42% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$93.34 | C$42.07 | −55% |
| Aflac Incorporated AFL | $111.18 | $67.02 | −40% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹409.05 | ₹299.19 | −27% |
| Cathay Financial Holding 2882 | 110.50 TWD | 71.47 TWD | −35% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.88 | ¥48.28 | +56% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Prudential plc (2378) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$112.32 versus a price of HK$95.00, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2378?
Our model-based fair value for Prudential plc is HK$112.32 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$95.00.
What is the quality score of 2378?
Prudential plc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Prudential plc (2378)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$112.32 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$79.10, optimistic scenario HK$145.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Prudential plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$112.32, about +18% upside versus a price of HK$95.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$79.10, optimistic scenario HK$145.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Prudential plc (2378)?
Prudential plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Prudential plc pay a dividend?
Prudential plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Prudential plc (2378)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Prudential plc would have to grow free cash flow by +48.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2378 use?
Our models discount Prudential plc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Prudential plc that is +48.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Prudential plc (2378) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Prudential plc grew -5.5 % a year. The price currently implies +48.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Prudential plc (2378) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Prudential plc (+48.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Prudential plc (2378)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.68 %: that much free cash flow Prudential plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Prudential plc (2378)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Prudential plc it is HK$112.32 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$95.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Prudential plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 2378 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$95.00, fair value HK$112.32, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2378?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$95.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$112.32). For Prudential plc the two are HK$17.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Prudential plc worth?
The market values Prudential plc at about HK$267B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$95.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$112.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2378?
Our models span a range for Prudential plc: cautious scenario HK$79.10, base HK$112.32, optimistic HK$145.71 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$95.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2378?
Prudential plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$112.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.5, P/B 1.7, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 2378?
The PEG ratio of Prudential plc is 4.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Prudential plc (2378)?
Balance-sheet figures for Prudential plc (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 20.6%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2378 from its 52-week high?
Prudential plc trades at HK$95.00, about 26% below its 52-week high of HK$128.70 and at the low of HK$95.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$112.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Prudential plc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Prudential plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$95.00, calculated fair value HK$112.32 (+18%), Quality Score 49/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2378 calculated?
We run Prudential plc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$112.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Prudential plc currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Prudential plc (2378)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$95.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$112.32, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Prudential plc right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$79.10 to HK$145.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Prudential plc (2378) come from?
Earnings per share at Prudential plc grew −16.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −20.6 %, EBIT margin −7.6 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +14.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Prudential plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Prudential plc (2378)?
The market capitalisation of Prudential plc is HK$267B (≈ $34.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Prudential plc (2378)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Prudential plc is 1.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Prudential plc (2378)?
Earnings per share at Prudential plc are HK$0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Prudential plc (2378)?
The dividend yield of Prudential plc is 0.3% (payout 54.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Prudential plc (2378)?
The net margin of Prudential plc is 14.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Prudential plc (2378)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Prudential plc is 20.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Prudential plc (2378)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Prudential plc is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Prudential plc (2378)?
The operating margin of Prudential plc is 45.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Prudential plc (2378)?
Revenue at Prudential plc is growing +18.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Prudential plc (2378)?
Earnings per share at Prudential plc are growing +30.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Prudential plc (2378) hold?
Prudential plc holds more cash than debt, $2.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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