2409 (2409) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · Market cap HK$2.2B

2 2409 2409 · HK

PriceHK$4.31

Fair ValueHK$0.6600

Upside-84.7%

Quality46/100

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Evidence: High Range HK$0.5200 – HK$1.52

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price +3.9% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$4.00 – HK$4.80 · fair‑value band HK$0.5200 – HK$1.52 · the HK$4.31 price screens above the HK$0.6600 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

2409 (2409) currently trades at HK$4.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6600 — implying the stock looks roughly 84.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, 2409 generated revenue of HK$324M at a net margin of 11.1%. Revenue grew 29.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at HK$456M. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$324M

Revenue growth (YoY) +29.2%

Net margin 11.1%

Return on equity 16.5%

Free cash flow HK$2.1M FY2025

P/E ratio 7.7

More key figures

Operating margin 8.1%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400

EPS growth (YoY) -58.6%

Net debt HK$456M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

2409 reported revenue of HK$324M in FY2025 versus HK$373M in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$36.0M in FY2025, compounding +1.7%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue −3.5%/yr

FY21 HK$373M

FY22 HK$359M

FY23 HK$259M

FY24 HK$282M

FY25 HK$324M

Net income +1.7%/yr

FY21 HK$33.6M

FY22 HK$57.3M

FY23 HK$21.2M

FY24 HK$70.3M

FY25 HK$36.0M

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Similar stocks

6 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS	₹1,821	₹1,051	-42%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S, AMKBY	$12.06	$17.41	+44%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919	¥15.00	¥38.31	+155%
International Container Terminal Services, Inc ICTEF	$15.14	$10.63	-30%
1919 1919	HK$13.07	HK$49.00	+275%
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, HLAGF	$125.83	$124.27	-1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 2409 (2409) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6600 versus a price of HK$4.31 — about −85% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 2409?

Our model-based fair value for 2409 is HK$0.6600 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$4.31.

What is the quality score of 2409?

2409 has a Quality Score of 46/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 2409 (2409)?

2409 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$324M (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 2409?

The net profit margin of 2409 is about 11.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.