Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd KRW 16,493, price KRW 7,590, upside +117.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Crown Confectionery Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells confectionery products in Korea. It offers biscuits, cakes, snacks, candies, and chocolates. The company offers its products primarily under the Heim, Couque D'Asse, Sando, Vic Pie, Jolly Pong, Concho/Conchi, Corn-Chip, Shinzzang, and Mychew brands.
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Crown Confectionery Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells confectionery products in Korea. It offers biscuits, cakes, snacks, candies, and chocolates. The company offers its products primarily under the Heim, Couque D'Asse, Sando, Vic Pie, Jolly Pong, Concho/Conchi, Corn-Chip, Shinzzang, and Mychew brands. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea.
Stock analysis
Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900) currently trades at 7,590 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,493 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 54.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 17,439 KRW per share, and 22 of the 22 models we run sit above the 7,590 KRW price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 7,971 KRW, and 0 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 12,963 KRW (bear) to 21,441 KRW (bull), the price of 7,590 KRW sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Crown Confectionery Co Ltd reported revenue of 445B KRW in FY2025 versus 381B KRW in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was 12.3B KRW in FY2025, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 91.2B KRW (≈ $67.9M) · P/S ratio 0.21 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% · Operating margin 3.2% · Revenue (TTM) 440B KRW.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 117%, 264900 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12,963 KRWFair Value 16,493 KRWBull 21,441 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.7% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 85 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Crown Confectionery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/264900
Frequently asked questions
Is Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16,493 KRW versus a price of 7,590 KRW, about +117% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 264900?
Our model-based fair value for Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 16,493 KRW (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7,590 KRW.
What is the quality score of 264900?
Crown Confectionery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16,493 KRW (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12,963 KRW, optimistic scenario 21,441 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Crown Confectionery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16,493 KRW, about +117% upside versus a price of 7,590 KRW (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12,963 KRW, optimistic scenario 21,441 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
Crown Confectionery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 440B KRW (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Crown Confectionery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Crown Confectionery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.69% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Crown Confectionery Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 264900 use?
Our models discount Crown Confectionery Co Ltd at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Crown Confectionery Co Ltd that is -9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Crown Confectionery Co Ltd grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies -9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (-9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.88 %: that much free cash flow Crown Confectionery Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Crown Confectionery Co Ltd it is 16,493 KRW per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 7,590 KRW. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Crown Confectionery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 264900 trades below its calculated fair value: price 7,590 KRW, fair value 16,493 KRW, a gap of about +117% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 264900?
No. The price is what the market pays today (7,590 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16,493 KRW). For Crown Confectionery Co Ltd the two are 8,903 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Crown Confectionery Co Ltd worth?
The market values Crown Confectionery Co Ltd at about 91.2B KRW (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 7,590 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 16,493 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 264900?
Our models span a range for Crown Confectionery Co Ltd: cautious scenario 12,963 KRW, base 16,493 KRW, optimistic 21,441 KRW per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 7,590 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
Balance-sheet figures for Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 264900 from its 52-week high?
Crown Confectionery Co Ltd trades at 7,590 KRW, about 15% below its 52-week high of 8,942 KRW and at the low of 7,560 KRW (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16,493 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Crown Confectionery Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Crown Confectionery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 7,590 KRW, calculated fair value 16,493 KRW (+117%), Quality Score 62/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 264900 calculated?
We run Crown Confectionery Co Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16,493 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Crown Confectionery Co Ltd currently trades 54 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 7,590 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 16,493 KRW, about +117% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Crown Confectionery Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (12,963 KRW). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
The market capitalisation of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 91.2B KRW (≈ $67.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
The dividend yield of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 3.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
The net margin of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
The operating margin of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
Revenue at Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900)?
Earnings per share at Crown Confectionery Co Ltd are growing −14.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Crown Confectionery Co Ltd (264900) carry?
The net debt of Crown Confectionery Co Ltd is 2.6B KRW (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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