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Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Barry Callebaut AG CHF 1,179, price CHF 1,116, upside +5.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · CH · ISIN CH0009002962

BC Some data Sep 23, 2026

Barry Callebaut AG

BARN · SW

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value CHF 1,179 · Fairly valued (+6%)
!Quality 48/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·2.60% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 19 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

CHF 2,157 CHF 709.68 Fair Value CHF 1,179 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range CHF 709.68 – CHF 2,157 · fair‑value band CHF 721.64 – CHF 1,602 · the CHF 1,116 price screens below the CHF 1,179 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Barry Callebaut AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of chocolate and cocoa products in Western Europe, North America, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Global Chocolate and Global Cocoa.

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Barry Callebaut AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of chocolate and cocoa products in Western Europe, North America, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Global Chocolate and Global Cocoa. It offers chocolates, chips and chunks, cocoa, cacao fruit, fillings, coatings, nuts, decorations and inclusions, and food colorants, as well as beverage products for vending machines. The company is also involved in the sourcing of ingredients for chocolate production and cocoa-processing business. In addition, it provides centralized treasury and management services, captive reinsurance, research and development services, and conference and training services through CHOCOLATE ACADEMY centers. The company markets its products under the American Almond, Barry Callebaut, Cacao Barry, Cacaofruit, Callebaut, Caprimo, Carma, Dings Décor, Gertrude Hawk Ingredients, Mona Lisa, Van Houten, and Van Leer Chocolates brands. It serves food manufacturers and artisans, as well as professional users of chocolate, including chocolatiers, pastry chefs, and bakers. Barry Callebaut AG was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) currently trades at CHF 1,116, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 1,179, implying the stock looks roughly 5.3% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 1,106 per share, and 2 of the 17 models we run sit above the CHF 1,116 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at CHF 263.41, and 15 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: CHF 721.64 (bear) to CHF 1,602 (bull), the price of CHF 1,116 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Barry Callebaut AG reported revenue of CHF 14.8B in FY2025 versus CHF 7.2B in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 186M in FY2025, compounding −16.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap CHF 6.1B · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) CHF 44.22 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 6%, BARN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear CHF 721.64 Fair Value CHF 1,179 Bull CHF 1,602
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 15.27 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income CHF 387.03 CHF 408.50 CHF 431.46 76
EPV CHF 510.20 CHF 658.20 CHF 785.88 74
Owner Earnings CHF 545.94 CHF 1,106 CHF 1,952 73
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings CHF 545.94 CHF 1,106 CHF 1,952 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd CHF 230.52 CHF 796.86 CHF 1,070 64
Lynch FV CHF 184.39 CHF 263.41 CHF 342.43 61
PEG = 1.0 CHF 184.39 CHF 263.41 CHF 342.43 57
EPV CHF 510.20 CHF 658.20 CHF 785.88 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM CHF 254.78 CHF 507.68 CHF 768.77 67
DDM Multi-Stage CHF 254.78 CHF 434.68 CHF 535.89 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple CHF 533.93 CHF 711.91 CHF 889.89 63
P/S Multiple CHF 432.23 CHF 576.31 CHF 720.39 58
P/B Multiple CHF 432.23 CHF 576.31 CHF 720.39 55
EV/EBIT CHF 1,050 CHF 1,542 CHF 2,034 65
EV/EBITDA CHF 1,138 CHF 1,660 CHF 2,182 67
EV/Revenue CHF 627.00 CHF 1,079 CHF 1,531 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) CHF 239.14 CHF 320.45 CHF 478.28 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income CHF 387.03 CHF 408.50 CHF 431.46 76
ROIC Compounder CHF 520.06 CHF 766.49 CHF 1,083 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E CHF 458.36 CHF 654.80 CHF 851.24 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13% vs −2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 77 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Above median
Fair Value upside +3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.62× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.90× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)41 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)38 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)19 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)52 · sector 54

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ $61.08 $28.86 −53%
The Hershey Company HSY $168.46 $91.25 −46%
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISP CHF 8,650 CHF 4,796 −45%
ORION Corp 271560 110,100 KRW 203,315 KRW +85%
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB $39.00 $22.28 −43%
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 ¥19.81 ¥9.09 −54%
Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN ₹661.05 ₹172.97 −74%
PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI 1,265 IDR 1,091 IDR −14%
Guan Chong Berhad, 5102 1.44 MYR 2.54 MYR +76%
Thanh Thanh Cong - Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company SBT 22,600 VND 14,808 VND −34%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Barry Callebaut AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BARN

Frequently asked questions

Is Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 1,179 versus a price of CHF 1,116, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BARN?
Our model-based fair value for Barry Callebaut AG is CHF 1,179 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 1,116.
What is the quality score of BARN?
Barry Callebaut AG has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 1,179 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 721.64, optimistic scenario CHF 1,602. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Barry Callebaut AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 1,179, about +6% upside versus a price of CHF 1,116 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario CHF 721.64, optimistic scenario CHF 1,602. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
Barry Callebaut AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 14.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Barry Callebaut AG pay a dividend?
Barry Callebaut AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Barry Callebaut AG it is CHF 1,179 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 1,116. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Barry Callebaut AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BARN trades below its calculated fair value: price CHF 1,116, fair value CHF 1,179, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BARN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 1,116); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 1,179). For Barry Callebaut AG the two are CHF 62.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Barry Callebaut AG worth?
The market values Barry Callebaut AG at about CHF 6.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 1,116; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 1,179 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BARN?
Our models span a range for Barry Callebaut AG: cautious scenario CHF 721.64, base CHF 1,179, optimistic CHF 1,602 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 1,116). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BARN?
Barry Callebaut AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 1,179 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 2.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BARN?
The PEG ratio of Barry Callebaut AG is 0.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Barry Callebaut AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 1.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BARN from its 52-week high?
Barry Callebaut AG trades at CHF 1,116, about 27% below its 52-week high of CHF 1,523 and 13% above the low of CHF 985.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 1,179 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Barry Callebaut AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, ORION Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Barry Callebaut AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 1,116, calculated fair value CHF 1,179 (+6%), Quality Score 48/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BARN calculated?
We run Barry Callebaut AG through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 1,179, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Barry Callebaut AG currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was CHF 1,116. Our model-based fair value is CHF 1,179, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Barry Callebaut AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (CHF 721.64 to CHF 1,602) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) come from?
Earnings per share at Barry Callebaut AG grew +1.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Barry Callebaut AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
The market capitalisation of Barry Callebaut AG is CHF 6.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Barry Callebaut AG is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
Earnings per share at Barry Callebaut AG are CHF 44.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
The dividend yield of Barry Callebaut AG is 2.6% (payout 65.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
The net margin of Barry Callebaut AG is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Barry Callebaut AG is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Barry Callebaut AG is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
The operating margin of Barry Callebaut AG is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
Revenue at Barry Callebaut AG is growing −7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Barry Callebaut AG (BARN)?
Earnings per share at Barry Callebaut AG are growing +179% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) generate?
The free cash flow of Barry Callebaut AG is −CHF 337M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) carry?
The net debt of Barry Callebaut AG is CHF 4.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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