Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CH · Market cap CHF 6.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from CHF 721.36 to CHF 1,281 (+77.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 14% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (CHF 825.05 to CHF 1,602) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from CHF 825.05 (bear) to CHF 1,602 (bull), base CHF 1,281. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 48/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 709.68 – CHF 2,157 · fair‑value band CHF 825.05 – CHF 1,602 · the CHF 1,126 price screens below the CHF 1,281 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) currently trades at CHF 1,126, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 1,281, implying the stock looks roughly 13.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Barry Callebaut AG generated revenue of CHF 14.3B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue declined 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at CHF 4.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 825.05 (bear case) to CHF 1,602 (bull case); at CHF 1,126, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 14%, BARN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (CHF 711.91) versus DCF Models (CHF 6.89). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Barry Callebaut AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of chocolate and cocoa products in Western Europe, North America, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Global Chocolate and Global Cocoa.
Full company description
Barry Callebaut AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of chocolate and cocoa products in Western Europe, North America, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Global Chocolate and Global Cocoa. It offers chocolates, chips and chunks, cocoa, cacao fruit, fillings, coatings, nuts, decorations and inclusions, and food colorants, as well as beverage products for vending machines. The company is also involved in the sourcing of ingredients for chocolate production and cocoa-processing business. In addition, it provides centralized treasury and management services, captive reinsurance, research and development services, and conference and training services through CHOCOLATE ACADEMY centers. The company markets its products under the American Almond, Barry Callebaut, Cacao Barry, Cacaofruit, Callebaut, Caprimo, Carma, Dings Décor, Gertrude Hawk Ingredients, Mona Lisa, Van Houten, and Van Leer Chocolates brands. It serves food manufacturers and artisans, as well as professional users of chocolate, including chocolatiers, pastry chefs, and bakers. Barry Callebaut AG was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Barry Callebaut AG reported revenue of CHF 14.8B in FY2025 versus CHF 7.2B in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 186M in FY2025, compounding −16.6%/yr from FY2021.
Watch BARN: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 96,500 | CHF 9,874 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $170.27 | $91.25 | -46% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.50 | $21.81 | -45% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 25,150 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +68% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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