Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Shanghai Forest Cabin HK$67.07, price HK$57.20, upside +17.3%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range HK$28.60 – HK$91.54 · fair‑value band HK$45.25 – HK$101.21 · the HK$57.20 price screens below the HK$67.07 fair value. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group Co., Ltd. operates as a skincare brand with a focus on the anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market in China. The company offers a wide range of premium skincare solutions under Forest Cabin brand.
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Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group Co., Ltd. operates as a skincare brand with a focus on the anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market in China. The company offers a wide range of premium skincare solutions under Forest Cabin brand. Its products include essence oils, face creams, toners and lotions, serums, facial masks and sunscreens for cleansing and toning to moisturizing and targeted treatments, as well as provides products for anti-wrinkle, firming, and repair. It sells its products through both online and offline channels including offline stores, as well as sales to offline retailers, enterprise customers, and distributors. Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Putuo, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657) currently trades at HK$57.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$67.07, implying the stock looks roughly 14.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$135.98 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$57.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$10.02, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$45.25 (bear) to HK$101.21 (bull), the price of HK$57.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Shanghai Forest Cabin reported revenue of 2.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 691M CNY in FY2022, a compound +52.5%/yr. Reported net income was 360M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$8.1B (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 2.32 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 30.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3% · Operating margin 20.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 17%, 2657 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$45.25Fair Value HK$67.07Bull HK$101.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+102.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +66.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+62.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 18%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 166% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+30.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.8% a year for the price and +28.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)30.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth42.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$67.07 versus a price of HK$57.20, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2657?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Forest Cabin is HK$67.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$57.20.
What is the quality score of 2657?
Shanghai Forest Cabin has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$67.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$45.25, optimistic scenario HK$101.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Forest Cabin stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$67.07, about +17% upside versus a price of HK$57.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$45.25, optimistic scenario HK$101.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
Shanghai Forest Cabin reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Shanghai Forest Cabin pay a dividend?
Shanghai Forest Cabin currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.97% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Forest Cabin would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +52.5 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2657 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Forest Cabin at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Forest Cabin that is +10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Shanghai Forest Cabin grew +52.5 % a year. The price currently implies +10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Forest Cabin (+10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.80 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai Forest Cabin produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Forest Cabin it is HK$67.07 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$57.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Forest Cabin stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 2657 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$57.20, fair value HK$67.07, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2657?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$57.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$67.07). For Shanghai Forest Cabin the two are HK$9.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Forest Cabin worth?
The market values Shanghai Forest Cabin at about HK$8.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$57.20; our models calculate a fair value of HK$67.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2657?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Forest Cabin: cautious scenario HK$45.25, base HK$67.07, optimistic HK$101.21 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$57.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2657?
Shanghai Forest Cabin trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$67.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.8, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Forest Cabin (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 30.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Forest Cabin?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Procter & Gamble Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Forest Cabin stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$57.20, calculated fair value HK$67.07 (+17%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2657 calculated?
We run Shanghai Forest Cabin through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$67.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Forest Cabin currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$57.20. Our model-based fair value is HK$67.07, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Forest Cabin right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$45.25 to HK$101.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Shanghai Forest Cabin
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Forest Cabin is HK$8.1B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Forest Cabin is 2.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Forest Cabin is 4.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
The net margin of Shanghai Forest Cabin is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Forest Cabin is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Forest Cabin is 11.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Forest Cabin is 20.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
Revenue at Shanghai Forest Cabin is growing +42.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +52.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Forest Cabin are growing +25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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