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Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$5.3B

SF Shanghai Forest Cabin 2657 · HK
PriceHK$48.94
Fair ValueHK$81.35
Upside+66.2%
Quality69/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.82% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Wide moat 76/100
Evidence: High Range HK$61.01 – HK$115.83 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$59.60 to HK$81.35 (+36.5%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +2.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 66% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$61.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$61.01 to HK$115.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (7 months)

HK$91.54 HK$28.60 Fair Value HK$81.35 Dec 2025 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

7‑month range HK$28.60 – HK$91.54 · fair‑value band HK$61.01 – HK$115.83 · the HK$48.94 price screens below the HK$81.35 fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657) currently trades at HK$48.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$81.35, implying the stock looks roughly 66.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Forest Cabin generated revenue of HK$2.4B at a net margin of 14.7%. Revenue grew 105.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.5%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 11.2 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$61.01 (bear case) to HK$115.83 (bull case); at HK$48.94, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at 66%, 2657 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$59.79 HK$101.27 HK$168.08 80
Residual Income HK$21.38 HK$28.70 HK$118.67 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$49.94 HK$76.23 HK$131.40 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$62.77 HK$89.15 HK$171.40 38
Owner Earnings HK$67.22 HK$132.09 HK$263.26 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$46.67 HK$68.36 HK$113.57 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$63.86 HK$103.11 HK$180.10 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$66.60 HK$132.49 HK$222.42 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$50.99 HK$89.89 HK$112.97 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$64.28 HK$126.05 HK$233.76 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$66.24 HK$131.82 HK$239.89 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$22.65 HK$157.96 HK$221.67 54
Lynch FV HK$81.61 HK$116.58 HK$151.56 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$81.61 HK$116.58 HK$151.56 46
EPV HK$42.75 HK$47.31 HK$51.24 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$7.71 HK$15.37 HK$23.28 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$7.71 HK$13.28 HK$16.23 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$52.46 HK$69.95 HK$87.44 63
P/S Multiple HK$27.17 HK$36.23 HK$45.28 58
P/B Multiple HK$42.47 HK$56.63 HK$70.78 55
EV/EBIT HK$65.13 HK$82.20 HK$99.28 53
EV/EBITDA HK$62.64 HK$78.89 HK$95.14 54
EV/Revenue HK$37.66 HK$47.85 HK$58.04 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$8.48 HK$11.36 HK$16.96 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$59.79 HK$101.27 HK$168.08 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$49.94 HK$76.23 HK$131.40 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$21.38 HK$28.70 HK$118.67 76
ROIC Compounder HK$46.67 HK$57.45 HK$70.04 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$106.74 HK$152.49 HK$198.24 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$152.49) versus Asset-Based (HK$11.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +106%
Net margin 14.7%
Return on equity 29.5%
Free cash flow HK$333M FY2025
P/E ratio 11.2 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 14.1%
Dividend yield 2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +78.0%

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14

Profitability 78
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group Co., Ltd. operates as a skincare brand with a focus on the anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market in China. The company offers a wide range of premium skincare solutions under Forest Cabin brand.

Full company description

Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group Co., Ltd. operates as a skincare brand with a focus on the anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market in China. The company offers a wide range of premium skincare solutions under Forest Cabin brand. Its products include essence oils, face creams, toners and lotions, serums, facial masks and sunscreens for cleansing and toning to moisturizing and targeted treatments, as well as provides products for anti-wrinkle, firming, and repair. It sells its products through both online and offline channels including offline stores, as well as sales to offline retailers, enterprise customers, and distributors. Shanghai Forest Cabin Cosmetics Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Putuo, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shanghai Forest Cabin reported revenue of HK$2.4B in FY2025 versus HK$691M in FY2022, a compound +52.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$360M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.4B
Latest YoY
+102.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+52.5%
Revenue +52.5%/yr
FY22 HK$691M
FY23 HK$805M
FY24 HK$1.2B
FY25 HK$2.4B
Net income
FY22 −HK$5.9M
FY23 HK$84.5M
FY24 HK$187M
FY25 HK$360M

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Shanghai Forest Cabin · Fair Value
HK$81.35 +66%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Forest Cabin Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2657

Peer Group

Household & Personal Products · 252 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +66% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 29% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Revenue growth 106% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.87× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.15× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 29
FUTURE 100 · sector 4
PAST 100 · sector 27
HEALTH 99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 56 · sector 52

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Household & Personal Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Procter & Gamble Company PG $144.26 $108.16 -25%
Unilever PLC ULN 1,080 MXN 973.58 MXN -10%
Hindustan Unilever Limited HINDUNILVR ₹2,063 ₹789.46 -62%
Essity AB ESSITYA kr 276.50 kr 250.02 -10%
Godrej Consumer Products Limited GODREJCP ₹936.90 ₹367.64 -61%
Marico Limited MARICO ₹855.00 ₹233.05 -73%
APR Co 278470 397,000 KRW 137,521 KRW -65%
Dabur India Limited DABUR ₹411.25 ₹175.59 -57%
PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 1,760 IDR 1,928 IDR +10%
Amorepacific Corporation 090430 135,700 KRW 84,785 KRW -38%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$81.35 versus a price of HK$48.94, about +66% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2657?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Forest Cabin is HK$81.35 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$48.94.
What is the quality score of 2657?
Shanghai Forest Cabin has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Forest Cabin (2657)?
Shanghai Forest Cabin reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2657?
The net profit margin of Shanghai Forest Cabin is about 14.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shanghai Forest Cabin pay a dividend?
Shanghai Forest Cabin currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.82% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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