Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$6.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$9.47 to HK$12.43 (+31.3%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +6.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$15.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (15 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range HK$15.09 – HK$45.70 · fair‑value band HK$9.22 – HK$15.63 · the HK$18.10 price screens above the HK$12.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865) currently trades at HK$18.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.43, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. generated revenue of HK$7.4B at a net margin of -17.4%. Revenue declined 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -33.0%. Net debt stands at HK$118M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$9.22 (bear case) to HK$15.63 (bull case); at HK$18.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at -31%, 2865 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$19.20) versus Asset-Based (HK$8.38). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. engages in design, research, development, production, and marketing of photovoltaic cells in China and internationally. It engages in generation of N-type TOPCon solar cells.
Full company description
Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. engages in design, research, development, production, and marketing of photovoltaic cells in China and internationally. It engages in generation of N-type TOPCon solar cells. The company was formerly known as Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co., Ltd and changed its name to Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in September 2022. Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is based in Haikou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. reported revenue of HK$7.6B in FY2025 versus HK$2.9B in FY2021, a compound +27.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.4B in FY2025.
2865 screens 31% overvalued. Compare with First Solar, Inc →
Peer Group
Solar · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $240.91 | $392.12 | +63% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $103.67 | $69.61 | -33% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,668 | ₹2,709 | +2% |
| Tongwei Co 600438 | ¥12.89 | ¥12.13 | -6% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥4.52 | ¥6.47 | +43% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $40.77 | $24.15 | -41% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥10.28 | ¥6.76 | -34% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥22.35 | ¥31.86 | +43% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹1,017 | ₹648.94 | -36% |
| Trina Solar Co 688599 | ¥13.64 | ¥7.97 | -42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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