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Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. HK$8.83, price HK$11.99, upside -26.4%, quality 25 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · HK

HD Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.

2865 · HK

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value HK$8.83 · Overvalued (−26.4%)
!Quality 25/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −11.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -17.4% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$45.70 HK$11.37 Fair Value HK$8.83 May 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

17‑month range HK$11.37 – HK$45.70 · fair‑value band HK$6.51 – HK$11.16 · the HK$11.99 price screens above the HK$8.83 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. engages in design, research, development, production, and marketing of photovoltaic cells in China and internationally. It engages in generation of N-type TOPCon solar cells.

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Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. engages in design, research, development, production, and marketing of photovoltaic cells in China and internationally. It engages in generation of N-type TOPCon solar cells. The company was formerly known as Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co., Ltd and changed its name to Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in September 2022. Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is based in Haikou, China.

Stock analysis

Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865) currently trades at HK$11.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.83, 26.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$18.85 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the HK$11.99 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$8.68, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$6.51 (bear) to HK$11.16 (bull), the price of HK$11.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 7.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +27.8%/yr. Reported net income was −1.4B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$6.3B (≈ $799M) · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) HK$−4.99 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin −18.6% · Return on equity −33.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin 11.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −26%, 2865 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$6.51 Fair Value HK$8.83 Bull HK$11.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM HK$8.05 HK$8.68 HK$9.61 67
EV/EBITDA HK$16.52 HK$18.85 HK$21.18 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.05 HK$9.58 HK$11.56 65
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$8.05 HK$8.68 HK$9.61 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$8.05 HK$9.58 HK$11.56 65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$16.52 HK$18.85 HK$21.18 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$7.31 HK$9.79 HK$14.62 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 25/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 11
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 4
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.0% (2021) → −7.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

2865 screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with First Solar, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 107 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −26.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −17.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −9.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.55× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.22× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)72 · sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)83 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Solar, Inc FSLR $176.93 $392.06 +122%
Nextpower Inc NXT $80.85 $88.94 +10%
Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER ₹2,495 ₹2,709 +9%
Tongwei Co 600438 ¥11.12 ¥12.13 +9%
Jinko Solar Co 688223 ¥3.75 ¥6.49 +73%
Hengdian Group 002056 ¥20.04 ¥31.86 +59%
Hanwha Solutions Corporation 009830 29,200 KRW 9,611 KRW −67%
CSI Solar Co 688472 ¥8.32 ¥4.88 −41%
Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH $30.91 $24.08 −22%
Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE ₹896.40 ₹648.72 −28%

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Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. · Fair Value
HK$8.83 −26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2865

Frequently asked questions

Is Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.83 versus a price of HK$11.99, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2865?
Our model-based fair value for Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is HK$8.83 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$11.99.
What is the quality score of 2865?
Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.83 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.51, optimistic scenario HK$11.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.83, about −26% upside versus a price of HK$11.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.51, optimistic scenario HK$11.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. it is HK$8.83 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$11.99. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2865 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$11.99, fair value HK$8.83, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2865?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$11.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$8.83). For Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. the two are HK$3.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. at about HK$6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$11.99; our models calculate a fair value of HK$8.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2865?
Our models span a range for Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario HK$6.51, base HK$8.83, optimistic HK$11.16 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$11.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −33.0%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2865 from its 52-week high?
Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. trades at HK$11.99, about 74% below its 52-week high of HK$45.70 and 5% above the low of HK$11.37 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$8.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Waaree Energies Limited, Tongwei Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$11.99, calculated fair value HK$8.83 (−26%), Quality Score 25/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2865 calculated?
We run Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$8.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$11.99. Our model-based fair value is HK$8.83, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$11.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.

How large is the market capitalisation of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
The market capitalisation of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is HK$6.3B (≈ $799M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
Earnings per share at Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. are HK$−4.99. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
The dividend yield of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is 4.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
The net margin of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is −18.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is −33.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
The operating margin of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865)?
Revenue at Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is growing −9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865) generate?
The free cash flow of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is −690M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (2865) carry?
The net debt of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is 118M CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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