Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hiconics Drive Tech Co ¥1.72, price ¥4.87, upside -64.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.77 – ¥8.65 · fair‑value band ¥1.21 – ¥2.24 · the ¥4.87 price screens above the ¥1.72 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Hiconics Eco-energy Technology Co., Ltd. engages in green energy solutions, household energy storage and photovoltaic inverters, and high-voltage variable frequency drives (VFDs) converters business in China and internationally. It operates through High Voltage Frequency Converters, Photovoltaic EPC, Residential Energy Storage, and Others segments.
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Hiconics Eco-energy Technology Co., Ltd. engages in green energy solutions, household energy storage and photovoltaic inverters, and high-voltage variable frequency drives (VFDs) converters business in China and internationally. It operates through High Voltage Frequency Converters, Photovoltaic EPC, Residential Energy Storage, and Others segments. The company offers photovoltaic solutions, including residential, commercial, and industrial photovoltaic solutions; Midea PV grid-connected inverters; wind power generation; and power trading. It also provides energy storage solutions comprising residential integrated energy storage systems, photovoltaic inverters, micro-inverters, and charging products, as well as high-voltage frequency converters. The company was formerly known as Hiconics Drive Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hiconics Eco-energy Technology Co., Ltd. in December 2016. Hiconics Eco-energy Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048) currently trades at ¥4.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.72, implying the stock looks roughly 183.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥3.88 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥4.87 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.08, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.21 (bear) to ¥2.24 (bull), the price of ¥4.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hiconics Drive Tech Co reported revenue of 7.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +57.6%/yr. Reported net income was 62.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.1B CNY (≈ $908M) · P/E ratio 243.5 · P/S ratio 2.03 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0200 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −65%, 300048 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.21Fair Value ¥1.72Bull ¥2.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0146 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+55.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+73.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.8% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−16.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−49% → 0%
2025 sits 276% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 550 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−65% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−25% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)243.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.34× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.88× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF4.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA77.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.67× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 58
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hiconics Drive Tech Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300048
Frequently asked questions
Is Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.72 versus a price of ¥4.87, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300048?
Our model-based fair value for Hiconics Drive Tech Co is ¥1.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.87.
What is the quality score of 300048?
Hiconics Drive Tech Co has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.21, optimistic scenario ¥2.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hiconics Drive Tech Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.72, about −65% upside versus a price of ¥4.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.21, optimistic scenario ¥2.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
Hiconics Drive Tech Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hiconics Drive Tech Co pay a dividend?
Hiconics Drive Tech Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hiconics Drive Tech Co would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +42.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300048 use?
Our models discount Hiconics Drive Tech Co at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hiconics Drive Tech Co that is +9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hiconics Drive Tech Co grew +42.7 % a year. The price currently implies +9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hiconics Drive Tech Co (+9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.46 %: that much free cash flow Hiconics Drive Tech Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hiconics Drive Tech Co it is ¥1.72 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥4.87. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hiconics Drive Tech Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 300048 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.87, fair value ¥1.72, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300048?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.72). For Hiconics Drive Tech Co the two are ¥3.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hiconics Drive Tech Co worth?
The market values Hiconics Drive Tech Co at about 6.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.87; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300048?
Our models span a range for Hiconics Drive Tech Co: cautious scenario ¥1.21, base ¥1.72, optimistic ¥2.24 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥4.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300048?
Hiconics Drive Tech Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 243.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 3.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 77.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 300048?
The PEG ratio of Hiconics Drive Tech Co is 0.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hiconics Drive Tech Co (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300048 from its 52-week high?
Hiconics Drive Tech Co trades at ¥4.87, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥8.32 and 8% above the low of ¥4.52 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hiconics Drive Tech Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hiconics Drive Tech Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥4.87, calculated fair value ¥1.72 (−65%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300048 calculated?
We run Hiconics Drive Tech Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hiconics Drive Tech Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥4.87. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.72, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hiconics Drive Tech Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥1.21 to ¥2.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048) come from?
Earnings per share at Hiconics Drive Tech Co grew −10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.8 %, EBIT margin −25.7 %, tax rate −2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hiconics Drive Tech Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
The market capitalisation of Hiconics Drive Tech Co is 6.1B CNY (≈ $908M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hiconics Drive Tech Co is 2.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
Earnings per share at Hiconics Drive Tech Co are ¥0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 243.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
The dividend yield of Hiconics Drive Tech Co is 0.0% (payout 7.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
The net margin of Hiconics Drive Tech Co is 0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hiconics Drive Tech Co is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hiconics Drive Tech Co is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
The operating margin of Hiconics Drive Tech Co is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
Revenue at Hiconics Drive Tech Co is growing −25.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +73.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048)?
Earnings per share at Hiconics Drive Tech Co are growing +34.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hiconics Drive Tech Co (300048) hold?
Hiconics Drive Tech Co holds more cash than debt, 206M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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