Najran Cement Company (3002) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Najran Cement Company SAR 5.97, price SAR 5.45, upside +9.5%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5.34 SAR – 23.00 SAR · fair‑value band 4.09 SAR – 7.88 SAR · the 5.45 SAR price screens below the 5.97 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Najran Cement Company engages in the manufacture and sale of cement products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company offers ordinary Portland cement, sulfate-resistant Portland cement, Portland pozzolanic cement, and plastering cement. It also engages in the transportation of goods.
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Najran Cement Company engages in the manufacture and sale of cement products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company offers ordinary Portland cement, sulfate-resistant Portland cement, Portland pozzolanic cement, and plastering cement. It also engages in the transportation of goods. Najran Cement Company was founded in 2005 and is based in Najran, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Najran Cement Company (3002) currently trades at 5.45 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.97 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 8.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 8.28 SAR per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the 5.45 SAR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1.53 SAR, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 4.09 SAR (bear) to 7.88 SAR (bull), the price of 5.45 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Najran Cement Company reported revenue of 516M SAR in FY2025 versus 582M SAR in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 36.7M SAR in FY2025, compounding −31.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 910M SAR (≈ $242M) · P/E ratio 34.1 · P/S ratio 2.43 · EPS (TTM) 0.1600 SAR · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 10%, 3002 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.09 SARFair Value 5.97 SARBull 7.88 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1175 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.2% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−18.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26% vs −17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 258 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Najran Cement Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3002
Frequently asked questions
Is Najran Cement Company (3002) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.97 SAR versus a price of 5.45 SAR, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 3002?
Our model-based fair value for Najran Cement Company is 5.97 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5.45 SAR.
What is the quality score of 3002?
Najran Cement Company has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Najran Cement Company (3002)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.97 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.09 SAR, optimistic scenario 7.88 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Najran Cement Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.97 SAR, about +10% upside versus a price of 5.45 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 4.09 SAR, optimistic scenario 7.88 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
Najran Cement Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 504M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Najran Cement Company pay a dividend?
Najran Cement Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Najran Cement Company (3002)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Najran Cement Company would have to grow free cash flow by +10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3002 use?
Our models discount Najran Cement Company at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Najran Cement Company that is +10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Najran Cement Company (3002) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Najran Cement Company grew -3.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Najran Cement Company (3002) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Najran Cement Company (+10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.76 %: that much free cash flow Najran Cement Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Najran Cement Company it is 5.97 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 5.45 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Najran Cement Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3002 trades below its calculated fair value: price 5.45 SAR, fair value 5.97 SAR, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3002?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5.45 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.97 SAR). For Najran Cement Company the two are 0.5180 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Najran Cement Company worth?
The market values Najran Cement Company at about 910M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 5.45 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 5.97 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3002?
Our models span a range for Najran Cement Company: cautious scenario 4.09 SAR, base 5.97 SAR, optimistic 7.88 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 5.45 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3002?
Najran Cement Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5.97 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
Balance-sheet figures for Najran Cement Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.3%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3002 from its 52-week high?
Najran Cement Company trades at 5.45 SAR, about 32% below its 52-week high of 7.99 SAR and 2% above the low of 5.34 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.97 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Najran Cement Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Vulcan Materials Company, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Najran Cement Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 5.45 SAR, calculated fair value 5.97 SAR (+10%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3002 calculated?
We run Najran Cement Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.97 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Najran Cement Company currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 5.45 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 5.97 SAR, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Najran Cement Company right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (4.09 SAR to 7.88 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Najran Cement Company (3002) come from?
Earnings per share at Najran Cement Company grew −10.7 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.3 %, EBIT margin −8.7 %, tax rate +4.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Najran Cement Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
The market capitalisation of Najran Cement Company is 910M SAR (≈ $242M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Najran Cement Company is 2.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
Earnings per share at Najran Cement Company are 0.1600 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
The dividend yield of Najran Cement Company is 0.1% (payout 2.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
The net margin of Najran Cement Company is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Najran Cement Company is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Najran Cement Company is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
The operating margin of Najran Cement Company is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Najran Cement Company (3002)?
Revenue at Najran Cement Company is growing −9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Najran Cement Company (3002)?
Earnings per share at Najran Cement Company are growing −63.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Najran Cement Company (3002) carry?
The net debt of Najran Cement Company is 254M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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