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Najran Cement Company (3002) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · SA · Market cap 905M SAR

NC Najran Cement Company 3002 · SR
Price5.48 SAR
Fair Value5.39 SAR
Upside-1.7%
Quality57/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 5.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Narrow moat 27/100
Evidence: High Range 3.31 SAR – 7.46 SAR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 10 days ago

Share price −6.0% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (3.31 SAR to 7.46 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

23.00 SAR 5.48 SAR Fair Value 5.39 SAR Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 5.48 SAR – 23.00 SAR · fair‑value band 3.31 SAR – 7.46 SAR · the 5.48 SAR price screens above the 5.39 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.

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Analysis

Najran Cement Company (3002) currently trades at 5.48 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.39 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 1.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Najran Cement Company generated revenue of 504M SAR at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue declined 9.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at 254M SAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 3.31 SAR (bear case) to 7.46 SAR (bull case); at 5.48 SAR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -2%, 3002 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 2.33 SAR 3.33 SAR 4.88 SAR 80
Residual Income 8.06 SAR 7.31 SAR 5.16 SAR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 1.96 SAR 3.39 SAR 5.15 SAR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 2.22 SAR 3.27 SAR 5.04 SAR 38
Owner Earnings 4.77 SAR 6.58 SAR 9.65 SAR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 1.96 SAR 3.29 SAR 5.24 SAR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 3.82 SAR 6.50 SAR 10.07 SAR 41
5Y P/E Exit 1.63 SAR 2.73 SAR 4.05 SAR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 1.98 SAR 2.93 SAR 3.93 SAR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 3.09 SAR 4.75 SAR 6.54 SAR 37
10Y P/E Exit 1.87 SAR 2.61 SAR 3.29 SAR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.52 SAR 1.90 SAR 2.16 SAR 54
EPV 1.53 SAR 1.91 SAR 2.22 SAR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.0300 SAR 0.0300 SAR 0.0300 SAR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 0.0300 SAR 0.0300 SAR 0.0400 SAR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2.84 SAR 3.79 SAR 4.74 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 2.84 SAR 3.79 SAR 4.74 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 2.84 SAR 3.79 SAR 4.74 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 2.81 SAR 4.16 SAR 5.52 SAR 53
EV/EBITDA 6.12 SAR 8.58 SAR 11.04 SAR 54
EV/Revenue 2.02 SAR 3.43 SAR 4.84 SAR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 6.18 SAR 8.28 SAR 12.35 SAR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 2.33 SAR 3.33 SAR 4.88 SAR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 1.96 SAR 3.39 SAR 5.15 SAR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 8.06 SAR 7.31 SAR 5.16 SAR 76
ROIC Compounder 1.53 SAR 1.91 SAR 2.22 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2.03 SAR 2.89 SAR 3.76 SAR 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (8.28 SAR) versus Dividend Discount (0.0300 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 504M SAR
Revenue growth (YoY) -9.0%
Net margin 5.1%
Return on equity 1.3%
Free cash flow 70.6M SAR FY2025
P/E ratio 34.3
More key figures
Operating margin 9.2%
EPS (TTM) 0.1600 SAR
EPS growth (YoY) -63.5%
Net debt 254M SAR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Najran Cement Company engages in the manufacture and sale of cement products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company offers ordinary Portland cement, sulfate-resistant Portland cement, Portland pozzolanic cement, and plastering cement. It also engages in the transportation of goods.

Full company description

Najran Cement Company engages in the manufacture and sale of cement products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company offers ordinary Portland cement, sulfate-resistant Portland cement, Portland pozzolanic cement, and plastering cement. It also engages in the transportation of goods. Najran Cement Company was founded in 2005 and is based in Najran, Saudi Arabia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Najran Cement Company reported revenue of 516M SAR in FY2025 versus 582M SAR in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 36.7M SAR in FY2025, compounding −31.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
516M SAR
Latest YoY
−3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.7%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.8%
Revenue −2.9%/yr
FY21 582M SAR
FY22 536M SAR
FY23 486M SAR
FY24 535M SAR
FY25 516M SAR
Net income −31.4%/yr
FY21 166M SAR
FY22 113M SAR
FY23 69.4M SAR
FY24 68.4M SAR
FY25 36.7M SAR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) −10.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share −5.3 pp

of which total revenue −5.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −8.7 pp
Tax rate +4.8 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Najran Cement Company · Fair Value
5.39 SAR −2%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Najran Cement Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3002

Peer Group

Building Materials · 253 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −2% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth -9% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.11× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.12× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.48× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 31 · sector 27
FUTURE 0 · sector 2
PAST 5 · sector 15
HEALTH 95 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 42

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $102.92 $70.57 -31%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,711 ₹4,719 -60%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥54.52 ¥13.95 -74%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,073 ₹1,245 -59%
CEMEX, S.A. CEMEXCPO 21.71 MXN 15.42 MXN -29%
Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 ¥16.99 ¥26.14 +54%
Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM ₹435.25 ₹227.96 -48%
Shree Cement Limited SHREECEM ₹26,930 ₹8,215 -69%
TCC Group 1101B 43.70 TWD 10.48 TWD -76%
Taiwan Glass Ind. Corp 1802 53.30 TWD 13.98 TWD -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Najran Cement Company (3002) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.39 SAR versus a price of 5.48 SAR, about −2% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 3002?
Our model-based fair value for Najran Cement Company is 5.39 SAR (as of Jul 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 5.48 SAR.
What is the quality score of 3002?
Najran Cement Company has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Najran Cement Company (3002)?
Najran Cement Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 504M SAR (latest available figure, as of Jul 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3002?
The net profit margin of Najran Cement Company is about 5.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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