Northern Region Cement Co (3004) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Northern Region Cement Co SAR 5.42, price SAR 6.58, upside -17.6%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6.40 SAR – 15.52 SAR · fair‑value band 4.06 SAR – 8.34 SAR · the 6.58 SAR price screens above the 5.42 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Northern Region Cement Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of portland cement in Saudi Arabia, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and the Republic of Iraq. The company offers white cement, Portland cement, and clinker.
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Northern Region Cement Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of portland cement in Saudi Arabia, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and the Republic of Iraq. The company offers white cement, Portland cement, and clinker. It is also involved in wholesale and retail of cement, building materials, such as cement, concrete blocks, gypsum, cement tiles; and rock cutting business using explosive materials. Northern Region Cement Company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Northern Region Cement Co (3004) currently trades at 6.58 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.42 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 21.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 8.42 SAR per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the 6.58 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 2.65 SAR, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 4.06 SAR (bear) to 8.34 SAR (bull), the price of 6.58 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Northern Region Cement Co reported revenue of 684M SAR in FY2025 versus 562M SAR in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 56.1M SAR in FY2025, compounding −14.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.2B SAR (≈ $317M) · P/E ratio 19.9 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) 0.3300 SAR · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −18%, 3004 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.06 SARFair Value 5.42 SARBull 8.34 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0587 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs −12%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−18% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northern Region Cement Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3004
Frequently asked questions
Is Northern Region Cement Co (3004) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.42 SAR versus a price of 6.58 SAR, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3004?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Region Cement Co is 5.42 SAR (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6.58 SAR.
What is the quality score of 3004?
Northern Region Cement Co has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.42 SAR (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.06 SAR, optimistic scenario 8.34 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Region Cement Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.42 SAR, about −18% upside versus a price of 6.58 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 4.06 SAR, optimistic scenario 8.34 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
Northern Region Cement Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 714M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Northern Region Cement Co pay a dividend?
Northern Region Cement Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Region Cement Co it is 5.42 SAR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 6.58 SAR. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Region Cement Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 3004 trades above its calculated fair value: price 6.58 SAR, fair value 5.42 SAR, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3004?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6.58 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.42 SAR). For Northern Region Cement Co the two are 1.16 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Region Cement Co worth?
The market values Northern Region Cement Co at about 1.2B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 6.58 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 5.42 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3004?
Our models span a range for Northern Region Cement Co: cautious scenario 4.06 SAR, base 5.42 SAR, optimistic 8.34 SAR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 6.58 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3004?
Northern Region Cement Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5.42 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Region Cement Co (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.6%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3004 from its 52-week high?
Northern Region Cement Co trades at 6.58 SAR, about 19% below its 52-week high of 8.17 SAR and 3% above the low of 6.40 SAR (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.42 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Region Cement Co?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Vulcan Materials Company, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Region Cement Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 6.58 SAR, calculated fair value 5.42 SAR (−18%), Quality Score 41/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3004 calculated?
We run Northern Region Cement Co through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.42 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Region Cement Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 6.58 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 5.42 SAR, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Region Cement Co right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (4.06 SAR to 8.34 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Northern Region Cement Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Region Cement Co is 1.2B SAR (≈ $317M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Region Cement Co is 1.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
Earnings per share at Northern Region Cement Co are 0.3300 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
The dividend yield of Northern Region Cement Co is 3.8% (payout 75.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
The net margin of Northern Region Cement Co is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Region Cement Co is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Region Cement Co is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
The operating margin of Northern Region Cement Co is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
Revenue at Northern Region Cement Co is growing +21.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northern Region Cement Co (3004)?
Earnings per share at Northern Region Cement Co are growing +49.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Northern Region Cement Co (3004) generate?
The free cash flow of Northern Region Cement Co is −47.9M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Northern Region Cement Co (3004) carry?
The net debt of Northern Region Cement Co is 1.0B SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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