Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd ¥37.79, price ¥25.80, upside +46.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥21.95 – ¥165.69 · fair‑value band ¥28.34 – ¥47.23 · the ¥25.80 price screens below the ¥37.79 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ligao Foods Co.,Ltd. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, production, and selling of baked food raw material and frozen baked foods in China. It offers cream, chocolate, fruit product, snack food, filling series, as well as milk cream and cheese sauce.
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Ligao Foods Co.,Ltd. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, production, and selling of baked food raw material and frozen baked foods in China. It offers cream, chocolate, fruit product, snack food, filling series, as well as milk cream and cheese sauce. The company also provides bakery food raw materials, including butter, fruit products, and sauces; fruit products, such as fruit fillings, fruit solubles, fruit purees, and beverage concentrates; and salad dressing, canstarch dressings, oil, and other products. In addition, it provides warehousing and transportations services. Ligao Foods Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973) currently trades at ¥25.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥37.79, implying the stock looks roughly 31.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥43.09 per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥25.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥10.56, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥28.34 (bear) to ¥47.23 (bull), the price of ¥25.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd reported revenue of 4.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 305M CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.4B CNY (≈ $652M) · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.68 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 46%, 300973 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥28.34Fair Value ¥37.79Bull ¥47.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.7169 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 10%
2025 sits 128% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+47% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥37.79 versus a price of ¥25.80, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 300973?
Our model-based fair value for Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is ¥37.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥25.80.
What is the quality score of 300973?
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥37.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥28.34, optimistic scenario ¥47.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ligao Foods Co.Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥37.79, about +46% upside versus a price of ¥25.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥28.34, optimistic scenario ¥47.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ligao Foods Co.Ltd pay a dividend?
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ligao Foods Co.Ltd it is ¥37.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥25.80. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ligao Foods Co.Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 300973 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥25.80, fair value ¥37.79, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300973?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥25.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥37.79). For Ligao Foods Co.Ltd the two are ¥11.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ligao Foods Co.Ltd worth?
The market values Ligao Foods Co.Ltd at about 4.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥25.80; our models calculate a fair value of ¥37.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300973?
Our models span a range for Ligao Foods Co.Ltd: cautious scenario ¥28.34, base ¥37.79, optimistic ¥47.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥25.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300973?
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥37.79 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300973 from its 52-week high?
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd trades at ¥25.80, about 45% below its 52-week high of ¥47.07 and 18% above the low of ¥21.95 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥37.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ligao Foods Co.Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ligao Foods Co.Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥25.80, calculated fair value ¥37.79 (+46%), Quality Score 61/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300973 calculated?
We run Ligao Foods Co.Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥37.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ligao Foods Co.Ltd currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥25.80. Our model-based fair value is ¥37.79, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ligao Foods Co.Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥28.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
The market capitalisation of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is 4.4B CNY (≈ $652M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is 1.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
Earnings per share at Ligao Foods Co.Ltd are ¥1.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
The dividend yield of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is 2.7% (payout 41.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
The net margin of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
The operating margin of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
Revenue at Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973)?
Earnings per share at Ligao Foods Co.Ltd are growing −26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973) generate?
The free cash flow of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is −2.7M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973) carry?
The net debt of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd is 586M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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