Machvision Inc (3563) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Machvision Inc TWD 568, price TWD 769, upside -26.2%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Machvision Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, repair, and sale of optical inspection machinery and equipment in Taiwan, China, and internationally.
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Machvision Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing, repair, and sale of optical inspection machinery and equipment in Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company offers machine vision systems, integrating optical imaging, image processing, precision mechanics, and motion control, as well as solutions for non-contact precision measurement, automated optical inspection, automated visual inspection, and laser via inspection. It also provides wafer inspection; IC packaging testing; four-wire electrical tests; and circuit board testing, including hardboard, flexible board, and IC substrate. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Machvision Inc (3563) currently trades at 769.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 567.66 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 35.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 347.35 TWD per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the 769.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 59.46 TWD, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 356.18 TWD (bear) to 827.46 TWD (bull), the price of 769.00 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Machvision Inc reported revenue of 3.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B TWD in FY2025, compounding +5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 49.4B TWD (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ratio 48.9 · P/S ratio 15.5 · EPS (TTM) 15.74 TWD · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 31.7% · Return on equity 19.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −26%, 3563 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 356.18 TWDFair Value 567.66 TWDBull 827.46 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.98 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+108.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs 15%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 36%
2025 sits 93% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 216 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Machvision Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3563
Frequently asked questions
Is Machvision Inc (3563) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 567.66 TWD versus a price of 769.00 TWD, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3563?
Our model-based fair value for Machvision Inc is 567.66 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 769.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 3563?
Machvision Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Machvision Inc (3563)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 567.66 TWD (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 356.18 TWD, optimistic scenario 827.46 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Machvision Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 567.66 TWD, about −26% upside versus a price of 769.00 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 356.18 TWD, optimistic scenario 827.46 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Machvision Inc (3563)?
Machvision Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Machvision Inc pay a dividend?
Machvision Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Machvision Inc (3563)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Machvision Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +25.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3563 use?
Our models discount Machvision Inc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Machvision Inc that is +25.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Machvision Inc (3563) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Machvision Inc grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +25.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Machvision Inc (3563) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Machvision Inc (+25.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Machvision Inc (3563)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.62 %: that much free cash flow Machvision Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Machvision Inc (3563)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Machvision Inc it is 567.66 TWD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 769.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Machvision Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 3563 trades above its calculated fair value: price 769.00 TWD, fair value 567.66 TWD, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3563?
No. The price is what the market pays today (769.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (567.66 TWD). For Machvision Inc the two are 201.34 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Machvision Inc worth?
The market values Machvision Inc at about 49.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 769.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 567.66 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3563?
Our models span a range for Machvision Inc: cautious scenario 356.18 TWD, base 567.66 TWD, optimistic 827.46 TWD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 769.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3563?
Machvision Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 567.66 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.5, P/S 14.8, EV/EBITDA 39.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Machvision Inc (3563)?
Balance-sheet figures for Machvision Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 19.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3563 from its 52-week high?
Machvision Inc trades at 769.00 TWD, about 63% below its 52-week high of 2,105 TWD and 83% above the low of 420.39 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 567.66 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Machvision Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Machvision Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 769.00 TWD, calculated fair value 567.66 TWD (−26%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3563 calculated?
We run Machvision Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 567.66 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Machvision Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Machvision Inc (3563)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 769.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 567.66 TWD, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Machvision Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (356.18 TWD to 827.46 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Machvision Inc (3563) come from?
Earnings per share at Machvision Inc grew +10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Machvision Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Machvision Inc (3563)?
The market capitalisation of Machvision Inc is 49.4B TWD (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Machvision Inc (3563)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Machvision Inc is 15.5 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Machvision Inc (3563)?
Earnings per share at Machvision Inc are 15.74 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Machvision Inc (3563)?
The dividend yield of Machvision Inc is 1.7% (payout 82.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Machvision Inc (3563)?
The net margin of Machvision Inc is 31.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Machvision Inc (3563)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Machvision Inc is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Machvision Inc (3563)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Machvision Inc is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Machvision Inc (3563)?
The operating margin of Machvision Inc is 38.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Machvision Inc (3563)?
Revenue at Machvision Inc is growing +9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Machvision Inc (3563)?
Earnings per share at Machvision Inc are growing −3.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Machvision Inc (3563) hold?
Machvision Inc holds more cash than debt, 975M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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