Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Vicon Holdings Limited HK$0.18, price HK$0.19, upside -7.2%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0990 – HK$1.98 · fair‑value band HK$0.1500 – HK$0.2000 · the HK$0.1940 price screens above the HK$0.1800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Vicon Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of foundation works and ancillary services in Hong Kong. The company's foundation projects include various types of construction works, such as piling construction, ELS, pile cap construction, and general building works.
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Vicon Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of foundation works and ancillary services in Hong Kong. The company's foundation projects include various types of construction works, such as piling construction, ELS, pile cap construction, and general building works. It also involved in the lease of construction machinery business. It serves property developers, project owners, and their contractors. Vicon Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) currently trades at HK$0.1940, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1800, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3900 per share, and 14 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$0.1940 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0800, and 8 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1500 (bear) to HK$0.2000 (bull), the price of HK$0.1940 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Vicon Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$237M in FY2026 versus HK$157M in FY2022, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$4.5M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$110M (≈ $14.1M) · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin −1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −7%, 3878 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1500Fair Value HK$0.1800Bull HK$0.2000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0050 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.1% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−30.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.8% vs −18.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−18% → 1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 798 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−7.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1800 versus a price of HK$0.1940, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 3878?
Our model-based fair value for Vicon Holdings Limited is HK$0.1800 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1940.
What is the quality score of 3878?
Vicon Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1800 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1500, optimistic scenario HK$0.2000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vicon Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1800, about −7% upside versus a price of HK$0.1940 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1500, optimistic scenario HK$0.2000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
Vicon Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$237M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vicon Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3878 use?
Our models discount Vicon Holdings Limited at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vicon Holdings Limited that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vicon Holdings Limited grew -1.5 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vicon Holdings Limited (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.63 %: that much free cash flow Vicon Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vicon Holdings Limited it is HK$0.1800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1940. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vicon Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 3878 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1940, fair value HK$0.1800, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3878?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1940); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1800). For Vicon Holdings Limited the two are HK$0.0140 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vicon Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Vicon Holdings Limited at about HK$110M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1940; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3878?
Our models span a range for Vicon Holdings Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.1500, base HK$0.1800, optimistic HK$0.2000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.1940). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3878?
Vicon Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vicon Holdings Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3878 from its 52-week high?
Vicon Holdings Limited trades at HK$0.1940, about 27% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2650 and 4% above the low of HK$0.1860 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vicon Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vicon Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.1940, calculated fair value HK$0.1800 (−7%), Quality Score 56/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3878 calculated?
We run Vicon Holdings Limited through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Vicon Holdings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.1940. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1800, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vicon Holdings Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) come from?
Earnings per share at Vicon Holdings Limited grew −17.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −21.4 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vicon Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
The market capitalisation of Vicon Holdings Limited is HK$110M (≈ $14.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vicon Holdings Limited is 0.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
Earnings per share at Vicon Holdings Limited are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
The net margin of Vicon Holdings Limited is 1.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vicon Holdings Limited is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vicon Holdings Limited is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
The operating margin of Vicon Holdings Limited is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
Revenue at Vicon Holdings Limited is growing −14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
Earnings per share at Vicon Holdings Limited are growing −13.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) hold?
Vicon Holdings Limited holds more cash than debt, HK$44.7M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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