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Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$110M

VH Vicon Holdings Limited 3878 · HK
PriceHK$0.2320
Fair ValueHK$0.1800
Upside-22.4%
Quality56/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 19/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1500 – HK$0.2000 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2000). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.98 HK$0.0990 Fair Value HK$0.1800 Jan 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0990 – HK$1.98 · fair‑value band HK$0.1500 – HK$0.2000 · the HK$0.2320 price screens above the HK$0.1800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) currently trades at HK$0.2320, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1800, implying the stock looks roughly 22.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Vicon Holdings Limited generated revenue of HK$237M at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue declined 14.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$44.7M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1500 (bear case) to HK$0.2000 (bull case); at HK$0.2320, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -22%, 3878 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.2200 HK$0.2500 HK$0.2900 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.1700 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2300 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1100 HK$0.1100 HK$0.1200 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.2100 HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.2700 HK$0.3200 HK$0.3900 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1700 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2200 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2600 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4600 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.2200 HK$0.2700 HK$0.3300 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2200 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2400 HK$0.2900 HK$0.3400 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.2200 HK$0.2500 HK$0.2800 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.0900 54
EPV HK$0.1100 HK$0.1100 HK$0.1200 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.1500 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2500 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 HK$0.2000 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 HK$0.2000 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.1600 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2000 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.3400 HK$0.4300 HK$0.5100 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.1400 HK$0.1600 HK$0.1800 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.2900 HK$0.3900 HK$0.5800 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.2200 HK$0.2500 HK$0.2900 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.1700 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2300 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.3600 HK$0.3200 HK$0.2100 61
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1100 HK$0.1100 HK$0.1200 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1000 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1900 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.3900) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$237M
Revenue growth (YoY) -14.8%
Net margin 1.9%
Return on equity 1.7%
Free cash flow HK$8.0M FY2025
P/E ratio 23.2
More key figures
Operating margin -1.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100
EPS growth (YoY) -13.3%
Net cash HK$44.7M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Vicon Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of foundation works and ancillary services in Hong Kong. The company's foundation projects include various types of construction works, such as piling construction, ELS, pile cap construction, and general building works.

Full company description

Vicon Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of foundation works and ancillary services in Hong Kong. The company's foundation projects include various types of construction works, such as piling construction, ELS, pile cap construction, and general building works. It also involved in the lease of construction machinery business. It serves property developers, project owners, and their contractors. Vicon Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Vicon Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$237M in FY2026 versus HK$157M in FY2022, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$4.5M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$237M
Latest YoY
−22.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−17.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.4%
Revenue +10.9%/yr
FY22 HK$157M
FY23 HK$417M
FY24 HK$487M
FY25 HK$304M
FY26 HK$237M
Net income
FY22 −HK$24.6M
FY23 HK$2.4M
FY24 HK$8.3M
FY25 HK$4.8M
FY26 HK$4.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −17.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.2 pp

of which total revenue +1.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.8 pp

EBIT margin −21.4 pp
Tax rate +2.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

3878 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →

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Vicon Holdings Limited · Fair Value
HK$0.1800 −22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vicon Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3878

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −22% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -15% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.40× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.47× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 3 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 15
PAST 7 · sector 26
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 43

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,020 ₹1,994 -50%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 357,500 KRW 261,411 KRW -27%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 113,700 KRW 61,453 KRW -46%
Samsung E&A Co 028050 49,300 KRW 43,624 KRW -12%
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL ₹230.00 ₹48.92 -79%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 18,400 KRW 6,507 KRW -65%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 99,800 KRW 19,346 KRW -81%
GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 35,200 KRW 23,135 KRW -34%
DL E&C Co 375500 73,500 KRW 148,433 KRW +102%
KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 46,350 KRW 43,924 KRW -5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Vicon Holdings Limited (3878) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1800 versus a price of HK$0.2320, about −22% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3878?
Our model-based fair value for Vicon Holdings Limited is HK$0.1800 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.2320.
What is the quality score of 3878?
Vicon Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Vicon Holdings Limited (3878)?
Vicon Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$237M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3878?
The net profit margin of Vicon Holdings Limited is about 1.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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