Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mouwasat Medical Services Company stock SAR 72.22, price SAR 55.60, upside +29.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 53.45 SAR – 130.26 SAR · fair‑value band 38.23 SAR – 95.00 SAR · the 55.60 SAR price screens below the 72.22 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Mouwasat Medical Services Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, management, operation, and maintenance of hospitals, medical centers, drug stores, and pharmacies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The company operates a network of hospitals that provides medical services and specialized centers, including eye, obesity, cardiology, diabetic, robotic, fertility, rehabilitation, long term care, stroke, and skincare center.
It also provides various services comprising inpatient pharmacy services, TPN and IV medication preparation units, chemotherapy medication preparation, anti-coagulant clinic, and clinical pharmacy services.
In addition, the company is involved in construction and operation of hospitals, dispensaries, and special clinics; general construction of non-residential buildings, including schools, hospitals, and hotels; demolition of buildings; purchase, sale, and division of land and real estate; off-plan sales activities; operation of colleges and university institutes; and medical operation of hospitals.
Further, it wholesales medical equipment and drugs. Mouwasat Medical Services Company was founded in 1974 and is based in Dammam, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002) currently trades at 55.60 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 72.22 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 23.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 78.34 SAR per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the 55.60 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.50 SAR, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 38.23 SAR (bear) to 95.00 SAR (bull), the price of 55.60 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mouwasat Medical Services Company reported revenue of 3.2B SAR in FY2025 versus 2.1B SAR in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was 822M SAR in FY2025, compounding +9.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 11.1B SAR (≈ $3.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 3.30 · EPS (TTM) 4.25 SAR · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 25.2% · Return on equity 22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 82 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at 30%, 4002 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear38.23 SARFair Value 72.22 SARBull95.00 SAR
Price 55.60 SAR · Upside +29.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.76 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.3% vs 13.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price and +6.6% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 243 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+29.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)25.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)26.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mouwasat Medical Services Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4002
Frequently asked questions
Is Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 72.22 SAR versus a price of 55.60 SAR, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4002?
Our model-based fair value for Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 72.22 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 55.60 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4002?
Mouwasat Medical Services Company has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 72.22 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 38.23 SAR, optimistic scenario 95.00 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mouwasat Medical Services Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 72.22 SAR, about +30% upside versus a price of 55.60 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 38.23 SAR, optimistic scenario 95.00 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
Mouwasat Medical Services Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.4B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Mouwasat Medical Services Company pay a dividend?
Mouwasat Medical Services Company currently shows a dividend yield of 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mouwasat Medical Services Company would have to grow free cash flow by +13.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.5 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4002 use?
Our models discount Mouwasat Medical Services Company at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mouwasat Medical Services Company that is +13.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mouwasat Medical Services Company grew +9.5 % a year. The price currently implies +13.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mouwasat Medical Services Company (+13.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.84 %: that much free cash flow Mouwasat Medical Services Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mouwasat Medical Services Company it is 72.22 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 55.60 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mouwasat Medical Services Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 4002 trades below its calculated fair value: price 55.60 SAR, fair value 72.22 SAR, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4002?
No. The price is what the market pays today (55.60 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (72.22 SAR). For Mouwasat Medical Services Company the two are 16.62 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mouwasat Medical Services Company worth?
The market values Mouwasat Medical Services Company at about 11.1B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 55.60 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 72.22 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4002?
Our models span a range for Mouwasat Medical Services Company: cautious scenario 38.23 SAR, base 72.22 SAR, optimistic 95.00 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 55.60 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4002?
Mouwasat Medical Services Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 72.22 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mouwasat Medical Services Company (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 22.6%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4002 from its 52-week high?
Mouwasat Medical Services Company trades at 55.60 SAR, about 24% below its 52-week high of 73.29 SAR and 4% above the low of 53.45 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 72.22 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mouwasat Medical Services Company?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mouwasat Medical Services Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 55.60 SAR, calculated fair value 72.22 SAR (+30%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4002 calculated?
We run Mouwasat Medical Services Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 72.22 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Mouwasat Medical Services Company currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 55.60 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 72.22 SAR, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mouwasat Medical Services Company right now?
Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (38.23 SAR to 95.00 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002) come from?
Earnings per share at Mouwasat Medical Services Company grew +13.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.8 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mouwasat Medical Services Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
The market capitalisation of Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 11.1B SAR (≈ $3.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 3.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
Earnings per share at Mouwasat Medical Services Company are 4.25 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
The dividend yield of Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 3.8% (payout 50.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
The net margin of Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 25.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
The operating margin of Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 26.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
Revenue at Mouwasat Medical Services Company is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002)?
Earnings per share at Mouwasat Medical Services Company are growing +14.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002) carry?
The net debt of Mouwasat Medical Services Company is 492M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026