National Medical Care Company (4005) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what National Medical Care Company is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 48.45 SAR – 218.65 SAR · fair‑value band 54.53 SAR – 164.60 SAR · the 118.90 SAR price screens above the 110.34 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
National Medical Care Company, together with its subsidiaries, owns, establishes, equips, manages, maintains, and operates healthcare facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It also provides home health care services. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
National Medical Care Company (4005) currently trades at 118.90 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 110.34 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 7.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 135.81 SAR per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the 118.90 SAR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 14.21 SAR, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 54.53 SAR (bear) to 164.60 SAR (bull), the price of 118.90 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
National Medical Care Company reported revenue of 1.6B SAR in FY2025 versus 845M SAR in FY2021, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was 318M SAR in FY2025, compounding +23.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.3B SAR (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 18.6 · P/S ratio 3.69 · EPS (TTM) 6.40 SAR · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 19.9% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −7%, 4005 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 54.53 SARFair Value 110.34 SARBull 164.60 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.39 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+29.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27% vs 13%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 22%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare National Medical Care Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 255 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Medical Care Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4005
Frequently asked questions
Is National Medical Care Company (4005) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 110.34 SAR versus a price of 118.90 SAR, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 4005?
Our model-based fair value for National Medical Care Company is 110.34 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 118.90 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4005?
National Medical Care Company has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Medical Care Company (4005)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 110.34 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 54.53 SAR, optimistic scenario 164.60 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Medical Care Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 110.34 SAR, about −7% upside versus a price of 118.90 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 54.53 SAR, optimistic scenario 164.60 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
National Medical Care Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does National Medical Care Company pay a dividend?
National Medical Care Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Medical Care Company (4005)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Medical Care Company would have to grow free cash flow by +61.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4005 use?
Our models discount National Medical Care Company at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Medical Care Company that is +61.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Medical Care Company (4005) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Medical Care Company grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies +61.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Medical Care Company (4005) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Medical Care Company (+61.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.41 %: that much free cash flow National Medical Care Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Medical Care Company it is 110.34 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 118.90 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Medical Care Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4005 trades above its calculated fair value: price 118.90 SAR, fair value 110.34 SAR, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4005?
No. The price is what the market pays today (118.90 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (110.34 SAR). For National Medical Care Company the two are 8.56 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Medical Care Company worth?
The market values National Medical Care Company at about 5.3B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 118.90 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 110.34 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4005?
Our models span a range for National Medical Care Company: cautious scenario 54.53 SAR, base 110.34 SAR, optimistic 164.60 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 118.90 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4005?
National Medical Care Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 110.34 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Medical Care Company (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 15.8%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4005 from its 52-week high?
National Medical Care Company trades at 118.90 SAR, about 34% below its 52-week high of 178.92 SAR and 25% above the low of 94.90 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 110.34 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Medical Care Company?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Medical Care Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 118.90 SAR, calculated fair value 110.34 SAR (−7%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4005 calculated?
We run National Medical Care Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 110.34 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. National Medical Care Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with National Medical Care Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide (54.53 SAR to 164.60 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of National Medical Care Company
How large is the market capitalisation of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
The market capitalisation of National Medical Care Company is 5.3B SAR (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Medical Care Company is 3.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
Earnings per share at National Medical Care Company are 6.40 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
The dividend yield of National Medical Care Company is 2.5% (payout 46.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
The net margin of National Medical Care Company is 19.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Medical Care Company is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Medical Care Company is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Medical Care Company (4005)?
The operating margin of National Medical Care Company is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Medical Care Company (4005)?
Revenue at National Medical Care Company is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Medical Care Company (4005)?
Earnings per share at National Medical Care Company are growing −38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does National Medical Care Company (4005) carry?
The net debt of National Medical Care Company is 188M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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