Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
31‑month range 54.24 SAR – 10,642 SAR · fair‑value band 44.26 SAR – 119.11 SAR · the 65.30 SAR price screens below the 73.26 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company engages in the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of generic medicines and pharmaceutical preparations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Private, Public, and Export.
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Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company engages in the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of generic medicines and pharmaceutical preparations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Private, Public, and Export. Its product portfolio includes dermatological, respiratory, cardiovascular, alimentary and anti-infectives, musculoskeletal, genitourinary systems, and CNS. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Middle East Chemical Products Factory Company and changed its name to Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company in January 2006. Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016) currently trades at 65.30 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 73.26 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 10.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 58.81 SAR per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the 65.30 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 7.97 SAR, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 44.26 SAR (bear) to 119.11 SAR (bull), the price of 65.30 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company reported revenue of 460M SAR in FY2025 versus 287M SAR in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was 97.0M SAR in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.0B SAR (≈ $537M) · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 4.62 · EPS (TTM) 2.98 SAR · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 21.1% · Return on equity 26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 12%, 4016 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 44.26 SARFair Value 73.26 SARBull 119.11 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.12 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 24%
2025 sits 56% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 612 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−25% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth34% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4016
Frequently asked questions
Is Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 73.26 SAR versus a price of 65.30 SAR, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4016?
Our model-based fair value for Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 73.26 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 65.30 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4016?
Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 73.26 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 44.26 SAR, optimistic scenario 119.11 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 73.26 SAR, about +12% upside versus a price of 65.30 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 44.26 SAR, optimistic scenario 119.11 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 493M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company pay a dividend?
Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company would have to grow free cash flow by +8.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4016 use?
Our models discount Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company that is +8.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +8.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (+8.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.00 %: that much free cash flow Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company it is 73.26 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 65.30 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4016 trades below its calculated fair value: price 65.30 SAR, fair value 73.26 SAR, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4016?
No. The price is what the market pays today (65.30 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (73.26 SAR). For Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company the two are 7.96 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company worth?
The market values Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company at about 2.0B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 65.30 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 73.26 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4016?
Our models span a range for Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company: cautious scenario 44.26 SAR, base 73.26 SAR, optimistic 119.11 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 65.30 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4016?
Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 73.26 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
Balance-sheet figures for Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 26.0%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 65.30 SAR, calculated fair value 73.26 SAR (+12%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4016 calculated?
We run Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 73.26 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide (44.26 SAR to 119.11 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
The market capitalisation of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 2.0B SAR (≈ $537M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 4.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
Earnings per share at Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company are 2.98 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
The dividend yield of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 2.1% (payout 46.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
The net margin of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 21.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 17.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
The operating margin of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
Revenue at Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is growing +33.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016)?
Earnings per share at Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company are growing +38.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016) carry?
The net debt of Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company is 29.5M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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