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Data-driven stock valuation

Almoosa Health Company (4018) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Almoosa Health Company stock SAR 77.23, price SAR 103, upside -24.9%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value 30%+ above price?No
  2. Quality 50+?No
  3. In an uptrend?No
  4. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Healthcare SA · ISIN SA1661VHUP11

AH Almoosa Health Company logo Broad data Oct 27, 2026

Almoosa Health Company

4018 · SR

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

Our calculation puts a fair price 25% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 10.9% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Broad data
Quality 43/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.6 %/yr in SAR)
1.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat 48/100 · thin data
Fair value 77.23 SAR · Overvalued (−24.9%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

198.25 SAR 98.25 SAR Fair Value 77.23 SAR Jan 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

22‑month range 98.25 SAR – 198.25 SAR · fair‑value band 57.67 SAR – 100.88 SAR · the 102.90 SAR price screens above the 77.23 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Almoosa Health Company operates as a private healthcare provider in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It stores medical items and sells medicine, cosmetics, and disposable medical items.

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The company also operates specialist and rehabilitation hospitals, medical and emergency centers, pharmacies, mental health clinics, and oncology centers, as well as a college of health sciences.

Its medical specialties include pain management, lymphatic massage, hyperbaric oxygen therapy, occupational therapy, speech and language disorders, personality and behavioral disorders, supportive devices and prosthetics, urology, ophthalmic surgery, general surgery, otolaryngology (ear, nose, and throat), wound care, emergency medicine, audiology, rheumatology, allergy and immunology, health education, angiography and interventional radiology, infectious diseases, chest diseases, dermatology, internal medicine, pediatrics, dentistry, nephrology, endocrinology, gastroenterology, pediatric neurology, physiotherapy, psychiatry, bone and joint surgery, psychiatric rehabilitation, therapeutic nutrition, and vascular medicine.

The company was formerly known as Al Moosa Specialist Hospital and changed its name to Almoosa Health Company in February 2024. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Al Mubarraz, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Almoosa Health Company operates as a subsidiary of Abdulaziz bin Abdullah Almoosa Investment Company.

Stock analysis

Almoosa Health Company (4018) currently trades at 102.90 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 77.23 SAR, 24.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 120.06 SAR per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the 102.90 SAR price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 20.83 SAR, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 57.67 SAR (bear) to 100.88 SAR (bull), the price of 102.90 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Almoosa Health Company reported revenue of 1.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 702M SAR in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 200M SAR in FY2025, compounding +33.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 4.5B SAR (≈ $1.2B) Small · P/E ratio 23.6 · P/S ratio 3.03 · EPS (TTM) 4.36 SAR · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 10.9% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −25%, 4018 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 57.67 SAR Fair Value 77.23 SAR Bull 100.88 SAR
Price 102.90 SAR · Upside -24.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.61 SAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income 36.30 SAR 39.18 SAR 44.39 SAR 76
EPV 16.87 SAR 20.83 SAR 24.08 SAR 74
ROIC Compounder 16.87 SAR 20.83 SAR 24.08 SAR 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 30.76 SAR 201.77 SAR 282.40 SAR 63
Lynch FV 58.77 SAR 83.95 SAR 109.14 SAR 61
PEG = 1.0 58.77 SAR 83.95 SAR 109.14 SAR 57
EPV 16.87 SAR 20.83 SAR 24.08 SAR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 14.29 SAR 24.73 SAR 32.91 SAR 68
DDM Multi-Stage 14.29 SAR 23.07 SAR 26.52 SAR 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 74.64 SAR 99.51 SAR 124.39 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 57.67 SAR 76.90 SAR 96.12 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 150.07 SAR 200.09 SAR 250.12 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 41.09 SAR 60.57 SAR 80.05 SAR 65
EV/EBITDA 53.58 SAR 77.23 SAR 100.88 SAR 67
EV/Revenue 24.35 SAR 42.23 SAR 60.11 SAR 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 22.23 SAR 29.79 SAR 44.46 SAR 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 36.30 SAR 39.18 SAR 44.39 SAR 76
ROIC Compounder 16.87 SAR 20.83 SAR 24.08 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 84.05 SAR 120.06 SAR 156.08 SAR 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 40
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 19
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 65
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 67
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 15
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 84
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+36.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 14%
2025 sits 113% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

4018 screens overvalued: fair value 25% below the price. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 244 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −24.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.4% · Above median
Return on assets 6.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 10.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 12.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 16.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.34× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 23.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.29× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.03× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 17.5× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)81 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)83 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Universal Health Services, Inc UHS $177.32 $447.22 +152% vs 4018
Fresenius Medical Care AG FME €40.57 €71.94 +77% vs 4018
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $449.96 $612.42 +36% vs 4018
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥8.25 ¥10.86 +32% vs 4018
DaVita Inc DVA $181.69 $215.81 +19% vs 4018
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $262.05 $276.08 +5% vs 4018
Encompass Health Corporation EHC $121.53 $94.47 −22% vs 4018
Fresenius SE FRE €46.26 €34.56 −25% vs 4018
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 221.00 SAR 109.45 SAR −50% vs 4018
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹7,792 ₹2,908 −63% vs 4018

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Almoosa Health Company · Fair Value
77.23 SAR −25%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Almoosa Health Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4018

Frequently asked questions

Is Almoosa Health Company (4018) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 77.23 SAR versus a price of 102.90 SAR, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4018?
Our model-based fair value for Almoosa Health Company is 77.23 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 102.90 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4018?
Almoosa Health Company has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 77.23 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 57.67 SAR, optimistic scenario 100.88 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Almoosa Health Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 77.23 SAR, about −25% upside versus a price of 102.90 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 57.67 SAR, optimistic scenario 100.88 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
Almoosa Health Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Almoosa Health Company pay a dividend?
Almoosa Health Company currently shows a dividend yield of 1.17% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Almoosa Health Company it is 77.23 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 102.90 SAR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Almoosa Health Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 4018 trades above its calculated fair value: price 102.90 SAR, fair value 77.23 SAR, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4018?
No. The price is what the market pays today (102.90 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (77.23 SAR). For Almoosa Health Company the two are 25.67 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Almoosa Health Company worth?
The market values Almoosa Health Company at about 4.5B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 102.90 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 77.23 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4018?
Our models span a range for Almoosa Health Company: cautious scenario 57.67 SAR, base 77.23 SAR, optimistic 100.88 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 102.90 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4018?
Almoosa Health Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 77.23 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 17.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
Balance-sheet figures for Almoosa Health Company (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4018 from its 52-week high?
Almoosa Health Company trades at 102.90 SAR, about 48% below its 52-week high of 198.25 SAR and 5% above the low of 98.25 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 77.23 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Almoosa Health Company?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Almoosa Health Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 102.90 SAR, calculated fair value 77.23 SAR (−25%), Quality Score 43/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4018 calculated?
We run Almoosa Health Company through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 77.23 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Almoosa Health Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 102.90 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 77.23 SAR, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Almoosa Health Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (100.88 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of Almoosa Health Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
The market capitalisation of Almoosa Health Company is 4.5B SAR (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Almoosa Health Company is 3.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
Earnings per share at Almoosa Health Company are 4.36 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
The dividend yield of Almoosa Health Company is 1.2% (payout 27.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
The net margin of Almoosa Health Company is 10.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Almoosa Health Company is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Almoosa Health Company is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
The operating margin of Almoosa Health Company is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
Revenue at Almoosa Health Company is growing +16.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Almoosa Health Company (4018)?
Earnings per share at Almoosa Health Company are growing −43.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Almoosa Health Company (4018) generate?
The free cash flow of Almoosa Health Company is −347M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Almoosa Health Company (4018) carry?
The net debt of Almoosa Health Company is 769M SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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