SMC Healthcare (4019) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SMC Healthcare stock SAR 21.67, price SAR 12.70, upside +70.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
16‑month range 11.42 SAR – 22.65 SAR · fair‑value band 13.05 SAR – 35.16 SAR · the 12.70 SAR price screens below the 21.67 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Specialized Medical Company owns and operates hospitals, clinics, and medical centers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company operates through Medical Services, and Pharmacies and Others segments.
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It provides diagnostic and therapeutic services for emergency medicine, cardiology, internal and family medicine, and pediatrics; and ancillary services, such as lab histopathology, diagnostic radiology and nuclear medicine, anesthesiology, pharmacy, and physiotherapy rehab.
The company also operates surgical units comprising operating room and recovery, delivery unit, ophthalmology, general surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, urology, orthopedics, and ENT; and critical care units, such as neonatal intensive care, CCU, and ICU. In addition, it provides a range of medical and alternative medical services addressing dermatology, anti-aging, and other aesthetic concerns; and home health care, virtual consultation, and dentistry services.
Further, the company offers cooked and non-cooked food; hospital and medical facilities maintenance services; and non-medical, healthy food, and food related services, as well as management and operations of restaurants.
Specialized Medical Company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
SMC Healthcare (4019) currently trades at 12.70 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 21.67 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 41.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 49.48 SAR per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the 12.70 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 2.52 SAR, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 13.05 SAR (bear) to 35.16 SAR (bull), the price of 12.70 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
SMC Healthcare reported revenue of 1.5B SAR in FY2025 versus 280M SAR in FY2021, a compound +53.1%/yr. Reported net income was 266M SAR in FY2025, compounding +105.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 3.2B SAR (≈ $846M) Small · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 2.02 · EPS (TTM) 1.10 SAR · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 28.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at 71%, 4019 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear13.05 SARFair Value 21.67 SARBull35.16 SAR
Price 12.70 SAR · Upside +70.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6454 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+301.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.6%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+81.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+78.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 16%
2025 sits 493% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.1% a year for the price and +4.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 243 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+70.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)13.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SMC Healthcare Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4019
Frequently asked questions
Is SMC Healthcare (4019) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 21.67 SAR versus a price of 12.70 SAR, about +71% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4019?
Our model-based fair value for SMC Healthcare is 21.67 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 12.70 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4019?
SMC Healthcare has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SMC Healthcare (4019)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 21.67 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.05 SAR, optimistic scenario 35.16 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SMC Healthcare stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 21.67 SAR, about +71% upside versus a price of 12.70 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 13.05 SAR, optimistic scenario 35.16 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
SMC Healthcare reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does SMC Healthcare pay a dividend?
SMC Healthcare currently shows a dividend yield of 2.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into SMC Healthcare (4019)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SMC Healthcare would have to grow free cash flow by +10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +53.1 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4019 use?
Our models discount SMC Healthcare at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SMC Healthcare that is +10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SMC Healthcare (4019) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at SMC Healthcare grew +53.1 % a year. The price currently implies +10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SMC Healthcare (4019) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SMC Healthcare (+10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.19 %: that much free cash flow SMC Healthcare produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SMC Healthcare it is 21.67 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 12.70 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SMC Healthcare stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 4019 trades below its calculated fair value: price 12.70 SAR, fair value 21.67 SAR, a gap of about +71% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4019?
No. The price is what the market pays today (12.70 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (21.67 SAR). For SMC Healthcare the two are 8.97 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SMC Healthcare worth?
The market values SMC Healthcare at about 3.2B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 12.70 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 21.67 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4019?
Our models span a range for SMC Healthcare: cautious scenario 13.05 SAR, base 21.67 SAR, optimistic 35.16 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 12.70 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4019?
SMC Healthcare trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 21.67 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
Balance-sheet figures for SMC Healthcare (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 28.2%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4019 from its 52-week high?
SMC Healthcare trades at 12.70 SAR, about 39% below its 52-week high of 20.80 SAR and 11% above the low of 11.42 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 21.67 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SMC Healthcare?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SMC Healthcare stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 12.70 SAR, calculated fair value 21.67 SAR (+71%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4019 calculated?
We run SMC Healthcare through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 21.67 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. SMC Healthcare currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 12.70 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 21.67 SAR, about +71% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SMC Healthcare right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (13.05 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (13.05 SAR to 35.16 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of SMC Healthcare
How large is the market capitalisation of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
The market capitalisation of SMC Healthcare is 3.2B SAR (≈ $846M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SMC Healthcare is 2.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
Earnings per share at SMC Healthcare are 1.10 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
The dividend yield of SMC Healthcare is 2.5% (payout 29.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
The net margin of SMC Healthcare is 17.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SMC Healthcare is 28.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SMC Healthcare is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SMC Healthcare (4019)?
The operating margin of SMC Healthcare is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SMC Healthcare (4019)?
Revenue at SMC Healthcare is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +68.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SMC Healthcare (4019)?
Earnings per share at SMC Healthcare are growing +24.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SMC Healthcare (4019) carry?
The net debt of SMC Healthcare is 286M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026