Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp TWD 39.42, price TWD 225, upside -82.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 39.42 TWD · Strongly overvalued (−82%)
!Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +2.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.36% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers(7/14)
!Moderate moat48/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Hiwin Mikrosystem Corporation develops and manufactures linear motion and control system in Taiwan and Israel. The company operates in three segments: Precision Motion and Control Parts, Micro and Nano-Positioning Systems, and Others.
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Hiwin Mikrosystem Corporation develops and manufactures linear motion and control system in Taiwan and Israel. The company operates in three segments: Precision Motion and Control Parts, Micro and Nano-Positioning Systems, and Others. It offers stage, single-axis robot, controller and drive, position measurement system, and servo and linear actuators, as well as vacuum, linear, direct drive, torque, spindle, and AC servo motors. The company is also involved in the research, development, manufacturing, and sale of drives and controllers. Its products are used in optical component manufacturing, medicare and healthcare, semiconductor, rehabilitation, and automation equipment, as well as transportation applications. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576) currently trades at 225.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 39.42 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 470.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 45.13 TWD per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the 225.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 18.01 TWD, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 26.71 TWD (bear) to 53.63 TWD (bull), the price of 225.00 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp reported revenue of 2.7B TWD in FY2025 versus 3.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was 241M TWD in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 29.1B TWD (≈ $914M) · P/E ratio 88.9 · P/S ratio 7.91 · EPS (TTM) 2.53 TWD · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −82%, 4576 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (2.18 TWD to 69.78 TWD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 26.71 TWDFair Value 39.42 TWDBull 53.63 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.27 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 12%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 11%
2025 sits 269% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.2%/yr over ~9Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 550 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−83% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)88.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.09× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)9.76× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA50.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 58
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 39.42 TWD versus a price of 225.00 TWD, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4576?
Our model-based fair value for Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 39.42 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 225.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4576?
Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 39.42 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 26.71 TWD, optimistic scenario 53.63 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 39.42 TWD, about −82% upside versus a price of 225.00 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 26.71 TWD, optimistic scenario 53.63 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp pay a dividend?
Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +43.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4576 use?
Our models discount Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp that is +43.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies +43.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (+43.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.23 %: that much free cash flow Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp it is 39.42 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 225.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4576 trades above its calculated fair value: price 225.00 TWD, fair value 39.42 TWD, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4576?
No. The price is what the market pays today (225.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (39.42 TWD). For Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp the two are 185.58 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp worth?
The market values Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp at about 29.1B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 225.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 39.42 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4576?
Our models span a range for Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp: cautious scenario 26.71 TWD, base 39.42 TWD, optimistic 53.63 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 225.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4576?
Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 88.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 39.42 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.1, P/S 9.8, EV/EBITDA 50.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4576 from its 52-week high?
Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp trades at 225.00 TWD, about 21% below its 52-week high of 283.48 TWD and 129% above the low of 98.15 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 39.42 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 225.00 TWD, calculated fair value 39.42 TWD (−82%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4576 calculated?
We run Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 39.42 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 225.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 39.42 TWD, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (53.63 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (26.71 TWD to 53.63 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576) come from?
Earnings per share at Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp grew +7.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.3 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
The market capitalisation of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 29.1B TWD (≈ $914M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 7.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
Earnings per share at Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp are 2.53 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 88.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
The dividend yield of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 0.4% (payout 31.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
The net margin of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
The operating margin of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
Revenue at Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is growing +45.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576)?
Earnings per share at Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp are growing +118% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp (4576) carry?
The net debt of Hiwin Mikrosystem Corp is 471M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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