SMCG Co (460870) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · KR · Market cap 48.2B KRW
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from 1,349 KRW to 1,358 KRW (+0.7%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +29.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,734 KRW). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (17 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range 1,901 KRW – 9,170 KRW · fair‑value band 1,019 KRW – 1,734 KRW · the 3,040 KRW price screens above the 1,358 KRW fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
SMCG Co (460870) currently trades at 3,040 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,358 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 55.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, SMCG Co generated revenue of 57.7B KRW at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 14.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at 20.3B KRW. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1,019 KRW (bear case) to 1,734 KRW (bull case); at 3,040 KRW, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -55%, 460870 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (5,026 KRW) versus Earnings-Based (897.90 KRW). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SMCG Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells glass containers for cosmetics. The company also provides accessories, which includes caps, pumps, droppers, etc. It serves companies and small and medium-sized enterprises. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Anseong-si, South Korea.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SMCG Co reported revenue of 55.8B KRW in FY2025 versus 31.6B KRW in FY2022, a compound +20.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B KRW in FY2025, compounding +10.7%/yr from FY2022.
460870 screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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