SCG Packaging Public Company (SCGP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TH · Market cap 123B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +14.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.14 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.86 THB – 64.07 THB · fair‑value band 12.09 THB – 20.14 THB · the 31.00 THB price screens above the 16.12 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
SCG Packaging Public Company (SCGP) currently trades at 31.00 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.12 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 48.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, SCG Packaging Public Company generated revenue of 121B THB at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue declined 9.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at 59.3B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 12.09 THB (bear case) to 20.14 THB (bull case); at 31.00 THB, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -4% fair-value upside, at -48%, SCGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (18.36 THB) versus Earnings-Based (7.11 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides consumer packaging solutions in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Packaging Business, Fibrous Business, and Recycling Business and Corporate segments.
Full company description
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides consumer packaging solutions in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Packaging Business, Fibrous Business, and Recycling Business and Corporate segments. The Integrated Packaging segment offers fiber packaging, such as corrugated containers; retail display packaging; packaging paper products, including containerboard, coated duplex board, and sack kraft; and plasterboard liners. This segment also offers consumer and performance packaging comprising flexible packaging products; flexible packaging; rigid packaging products; and medical supplies and labware. Its Fibrous Business segment provides food service; pulp; and paper products. The Recycling Business and Others segment offers packaging materials recycling and investment services. The company was formerly known as SCG Paper Public Company Limited and changed its name to SCG Packaging Public Company Limited in June 2015. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand. SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of The Siam Cement Public Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SCG Packaging Public Company reported revenue of 124B THB in FY2025 versus 124B THB in FY2021, a compound +0.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B THB in FY2025, compounding −16.3%/yr from FY2021.
SCGP screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
| PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk, PBID | 486.00 IDR | 885.39 IDR | +82% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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