SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited THB 16.12, price THB 30.75, upside -47.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.86 THB – 64.07 THB · fair‑value band 12.09 THB – 20.14 THB · the 30.75 THB price screens above the 16.12 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides consumer packaging solutions in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Packaging Business, Fibrous Business, and Recycling Business and Corporate segments.
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SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides consumer packaging solutions in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Packaging Business, Fibrous Business, and Recycling Business and Corporate segments. The Integrated Packaging segment offers fiber packaging, such as corrugated containers; retail display packaging; packaging paper products, including containerboard, coated duplex board, and sack kraft; and plasterboard liners. This segment also offers consumer and performance packaging comprising flexible packaging products; flexible packaging; rigid packaging products; and medical supplies and labware. Its Fibrous Business segment provides food service; pulp; and paper products. The Recycling Business and Others segment offers packaging materials recycling and investment services. The company was formerly known as SCG Paper Public Company Limited and changed its name to SCG Packaging Public Company Limited in June 2015. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand. SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of The Siam Cement Public Company Limited.
Stock analysis
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) currently trades at 30.75 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.12 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 90.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 20.58 THB per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the 30.75 THB price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 6.47 THB, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.09 THB (bear) to 20.14 THB (bull), the price of 30.75 THB sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited reported revenue of 124B THB in FY2025 versus 124B THB in FY2021, a compound +0.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B THB in FY2025, compounding −16.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 132B THB (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 28.0 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) 1.10 THB · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −48%, SCGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.09 THBFair Value 16.12 THBBull 20.14 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3658 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9% vs 2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.9% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
Compare SCG Packaging Public Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−48% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.77× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.09× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)22· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)39· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SCG Packaging Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SCGP
Frequently asked questions
Is SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.12 THB versus a price of 30.75 THB, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SCGP?
Our model-based fair value for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 16.12 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 30.75 THB.
What is the quality score of SCGP?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.12 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.09 THB, optimistic scenario 20.14 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SCG Packaging Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.12 THB, about −48% upside versus a price of 30.75 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.09 THB, optimistic scenario 20.14 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 121B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does SCG Packaging Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SCG Packaging Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SCGP use?
Our models discount SCG Packaging Public Company Limited at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SCG Packaging Public Company Limited that is +13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (+13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.46 %: that much free cash flow SCG Packaging Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SCG Packaging Public Company Limited it is 16.12 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 30.75 THB. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SCG Packaging Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SCGP trades above its calculated fair value: price 30.75 THB, fair value 16.12 THB, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SCGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (30.75 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.12 THB). For SCG Packaging Public Company Limited the two are 14.63 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SCG Packaging Public Company Limited worth?
The market values SCG Packaging Public Company Limited at about 132B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 30.75 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 16.12 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SCGP?
Our models span a range for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 12.09 THB, base 16.12 THB, optimistic 20.14 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 30.75 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SCGP?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.12 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SCGP from its 52-week high?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited trades at 30.75 THB, about 4% below its 52-week high of 32.00 THB and 109% above the low of 14.74 THB (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.12 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SCG Packaging Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SCG Packaging Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 30.75 THB, calculated fair value 16.12 THB (−48%), Quality Score 58/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SCGP calculated?
We run SCG Packaging Public Company Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.12 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. SCG Packaging Public Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 30.75 THB. Our model-based fair value is 16.12 THB, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SCG Packaging Public Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.14 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) come from?
Earnings per share at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited grew +3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The market capitalisation of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 132B THB (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 0.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Earnings per share at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited are 1.10 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The dividend yield of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 2.0% (payout 54.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The net margin of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The operating margin of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Revenue at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is growing −9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Earnings per share at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited are growing +71.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) carry?
The net debt of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 59.3B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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