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SCG Packaging Public Company (SCGP) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · TH · Market cap 123B THB

SP SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP · BK
Price31.00 THB
Fair Value16.12 THB
Upside-48.0%
Quality58/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.09% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: Medium Range 12.09 THB – 20.14 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +14.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.14 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

64.07 THB 10.86 THB Fair Value 16.12 THB Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 10.86 THB – 64.07 THB · fair‑value band 12.09 THB – 20.14 THB · the 31.00 THB price screens above the 16.12 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

SCG Packaging Public Company (SCGP) currently trades at 31.00 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.12 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 48.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, SCG Packaging Public Company generated revenue of 121B THB at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue declined 9.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at 59.3B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 12.09 THB (bear case) to 20.14 THB (bull case); at 31.00 THB, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -4% fair-value upside, at -48%, SCGP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 16.68 THB 25.56 THB 37.74 THB 80
Residual Income 13.55 THB 13.92 THB 13.78 THB 76
Rev-Margin DCF 10.29 THB 17.36 THB 25.07 THB 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 16.07 THB 25.66 THB 39.41 THB 38
Owner Earnings 15.05 THB 24.19 THB 37.27 THB 31
5Y Revenue Exit 10.29 THB 17.07 THB 25.31 THB 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 17.25 THB 29.50 THB 43.19 THB 41
5Y P/E Exit 9.27 THB 15.25 THB 21.14 THB 38
10Y Revenue Exit 11.88 THB 18.36 THB 26.21 THB 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 16.61 THB 26.78 THB 39.28 THB 37
10Y P/E Exit 11.62 THB 17.13 THB 23.17 THB 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 6.45 THB 15.46 THB 19.95 THB 54
PEG = 1.0 2.71 THB 3.88 THB 5.04 THB 46
EPV 5.36 THB 7.11 THB 8.65 THB 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 5.05 THB 8.93 THB 13.84 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 5.05 THB 7.53 THB 10.26 THB 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 12.09 THB 16.12 THB 20.14 THB 63
P/S Multiple 12.09 THB 16.12 THB 20.14 THB 58
P/B Multiple 12.09 THB 16.12 THB 20.14 THB 55
EV/EBIT 9.80 THB 14.79 THB 19.78 THB 53
EV/EBITDA 21.18 THB 29.97 THB 38.76 THB 54
EV/Revenue 7.80 THB 13.36 THB 18.92 THB 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 8.67 THB 11.61 THB 17.33 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 16.68 THB 25.56 THB 37.74 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 10.29 THB 17.36 THB 25.07 THB 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 13.55 THB 13.92 THB 13.78 THB 76
ROIC Compounder 5.36 THB 7.11 THB 8.65 THB 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 9.36 THB 13.37 THB 17.38 THB 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (18.36 THB) versus Earnings-Based (7.11 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 121B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) -9.0%
Net margin 3.9%
Return on equity 5.6%
Free cash flow 8.5B THB FY2025
P/E ratio 23.2
More key figures
Operating margin 8.1%
EPS (TTM) 1.10 THB
Dividend yield 2.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +71.4%
Net debt 59.3B THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides consumer packaging solutions in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Packaging Business, Fibrous Business, and Recycling Business and Corporate segments.

Full company description

SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides consumer packaging solutions in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Packaging Business, Fibrous Business, and Recycling Business and Corporate segments. The Integrated Packaging segment offers fiber packaging, such as corrugated containers; retail display packaging; packaging paper products, including containerboard, coated duplex board, and sack kraft; and plasterboard liners. This segment also offers consumer and performance packaging comprising flexible packaging products; flexible packaging; rigid packaging products; and medical supplies and labware. Its Fibrous Business segment provides food service; pulp; and paper products. The Recycling Business and Others segment offers packaging materials recycling and investment services. The company was formerly known as SCG Paper Public Company Limited and changed its name to SCG Packaging Public Company Limited in June 2015. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand. SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of The Siam Cement Public Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

SCG Packaging Public Company reported revenue of 124B THB in FY2025 versus 124B THB in FY2021, a compound +0.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B THB in FY2025, compounding −16.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
124B THB
Latest YoY
−6.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−5.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+6.0%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y)
+6.1%
Revenue +0.0%/yr
FY21 124B THB
FY22 146B THB
FY23 129B THB
FY24 133B THB
FY25 124B THB
Net income −16.3%/yr
FY21 8.3B THB
FY22 5.8B THB
FY23 5.2B THB
FY24 3.7B THB
FY25 4.1B THB

SCGP screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SCG Packaging Public Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SCGP

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −48% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth -9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.39× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.66× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.02× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 9
FUTURE 0 · sector 1
PAST 22 · sector 21
HEALTH 81 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 42 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

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PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW 5,312 IDR 1,194 IDR -78%
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 132.50 TWD 127.06 TWD -4%
Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO ₹206.82 ₹161.42 -22%
EPL Limited 500135 ₹222.25 ₹111.65 -50%
Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 15.15 TWD 23.17 TWD +53%
Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 19,330 KRW 31,473 KRW +63%
PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk, PBID 486.00 IDR 885.39 IDR +82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is SCG Packaging Public Company (SCGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.12 THB versus a price of 31.00 THB, about −48% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SCGP?
Our model-based fair value for SCG Packaging Public Company is 16.12 THB (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 31.00 THB.
What is the quality score of SCGP?
SCG Packaging Public Company has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of SCG Packaging Public Company (SCGP)?
SCG Packaging Public Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 121B THB (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SCGP?
The net profit margin of SCG Packaging Public Company is about 3.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does SCG Packaging Public Company pay a dividend?
SCG Packaging Public Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.31% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 15, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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