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ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co (002831) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 36.0B CNY

SY ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 · SHE
Price¥28.53
Fair Value¥20.88
Upside-26.8%
Quality65/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 9.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.14% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Moderate moat 51/100
Evidence: High Range ¥15.16 – ¥27.45 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 7, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −4.0% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥27.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥15.16 to ¥27.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥43.41 ¥19.08 Fair Value ¥20.88 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥19.08 – ¥43.41 · fair‑value band ¥15.16 – ¥27.45 · the ¥28.53 price screens above the ¥20.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

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Analysis

ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co (002831) currently trades at ¥28.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥20.88, implying the stock looks roughly 26.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co generated revenue of 17.3B CNY at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.0%. Net debt stands at 2.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥15.16 (bear case) to ¥27.45 (bull case); at ¥28.53, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -4% fair-value upside, at -27%, 002831 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥20.75 ¥37.46 ¥67.19 80
Residual Income ¥8.97 ¥11.08 ¥25.56 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥17.24 ¥29.64 ¥46.55 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥21.16 ¥39.38 ¥75.61 38
Owner Earnings ¥18.62 ¥35.22 ¥66.09 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥17.24 ¥30.05 ¥47.91 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥18.60 ¥33.01 ¥51.65 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥17.70 ¥31.05 ¥46.86 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥17.86 ¥30.80 ¥51.73 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥19.29 ¥33.03 ¥55.01 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥18.68 ¥31.55 ¥50.80 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥8.40 ¥45.78 ¥63.48 54
Lynch FV ¥12.71 ¥18.16 ¥23.60 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥12.71 ¥18.16 ¥23.60 46
EPV ¥14.29 ¥16.45 ¥18.34 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥15.76 ¥21.01 ¥26.26 63
P/S Multiple ¥15.05 ¥20.07 ¥25.09 58
P/B Multiple ¥15.76 ¥21.01 ¥26.26 55
EV/EBIT ¥17.94 ¥23.48 ¥29.01 53
EV/EBITDA ¥18.48 ¥24.20 ¥29.91 54
EV/Revenue ¥15.38 ¥21.40 ¥27.42 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.70 ¥6.30 ¥9.41 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥20.75 ¥37.46 ¥67.19 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥17.24 ¥29.64 ¥46.55 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥8.97 ¥11.08 ¥25.56 76
ROIC Compounder ¥16.38 ¥22.44 ¥30.80 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥16.76 ¥23.95 ¥31.13 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥31.55) versus Asset-Based (¥6.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 17.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.6%
Net margin 9.2%
Return on equity 13.0%
Free cash flow 1.9B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 22.2
More key figures
Operating margin 10.2%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.26
Dividend yield 3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +3.8%
Net debt 2.6B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides packaging solutions in China and internationally.

Full company description

ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides packaging solutions in China and internationally. The company offers wine and spirits packaging solutions, such as plant fiber inner tray for wine packaging, leather-like specialty paper, photolithographic printing, PU leather and flocking high-end solution, anti-counterfeiting locking mechanism solution, wood-like specialty paper, and lenticular enhancement solution. It also provides consumer electronics packaging solutions, including paperboard plastic-free inner tray, plant fiber laptop box, and consumer electronics folding boxes; and personal care packaging solutions comprising display box design, plant fiber hair dye packaging, corrugated perfume boxes, reusable box design, honeycomb paper, and tactile film process. In addition, the company offers creative box design, spherical milk box solutions, plant fiber coffee bean capsule, kraft tea box solutions, corrugated milk box solutions, eco-friendly visible solution, seed paper interactive packaging solution, and catering packaging; and one-paper folding inner tray and interactive packaging solutions for the healthcare industry; and tobacco packaging solutions consisting of rigid box for tobacco packaging, fabric-like specialty paper, and laser enhancement solution. Further, it provides plastic substitution, pre-media, retail design, merchandise, injection molding, and photolithography; pet products; acoustic products, consumer electronics soft materials, and glare film; and carbon fiber, glass fiber, and eco adhesive products. ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co reported revenue of ¥17.2B in FY2025 versus ¥14.9B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.6B in FY2025, compounding +11.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
17.2B CNY
Latest YoY
+0.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y)
+15.9%
Revenue +3.6%/yr
FY21 ¥14.9B
FY22 ¥16.4B
FY23 ¥15.2B
FY24 ¥17.2B
FY25 ¥17.2B
Net income +11.7%/yr
FY21 ¥1.0B
FY22 ¥1.5B
FY23 ¥1.4B
FY24 ¥1.4B
FY25 ¥1.6B

002831 screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002831

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −27% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.97× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.08× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 9
FUTURE 13 · sector 1
PAST 52 · sector 21
HEALTH 98 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 63 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Stora Enso Oyj STER kr 101.90 kr 126.39 +24%
SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP 29.00 THB 16.12 THB -44%
AblePrint Technology Co 7734 2,850 TWD 661.69 TWD -77%
PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW 5,312 IDR 1,194 IDR -78%
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 132.50 TWD 127.06 TWD -4%
Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO ₹206.82 ₹161.42 -22%
EPL Limited 500135 ₹222.25 ₹111.65 -50%
Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 15.15 TWD 23.17 TWD +53%
Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 19,330 KRW 31,473 KRW +63%
PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk, PBID 486.00 IDR 885.39 IDR +82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co (002831) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥20.88 versus a price of ¥28.53, about −27% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002831?
Our model-based fair value for ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co is ¥20.88 (as of Aug 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥28.53.
What is the quality score of 002831?
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co (002831)?
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002831?
The net profit margin of ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co is about 9.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co pay a dividend?
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.88% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 7, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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