Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Japan Post Insurance Co €13.06, price €9.50, upside +37.5%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 1 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
JPSome dataSep 29, 2026
Japan Post Insurance Co
4JP · F
SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value €13.06 · Undervalued (+37.5%)
!Quality 24/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −5.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!2.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers(8/13)
!Narrow moat40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.84 – €10.10 · fair‑value band €9.80 – €16.33 · the €9.50 price screens below the €13.06 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. engages in the provision of life insurance products and services in Japan.
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Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. engages in the provision of life insurance products and services in Japan. The company also offers agency services for other insurance companies, including foreign insurance companies and financial institutions; personal and asset accumulation pension insurances; and reinsurances, as well as handles the administration of postal life insurance contracts. In addition, the company is involved in the acquisition of real estate and securities, securities lending, and deposits businesses; information system design, development, maintenance, and operation contracting; and investment management business, such as investment advisory and agency business. It offers its products through directly managed sales offices and post offices to individual and corporate customers. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP) currently trades at €9.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €13.06, implying the stock looks roughly 27.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €16.52 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the €9.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.24, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €9.80 (bear) to €16.33 (bull), the price of €9.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Japan Post Insurance Co reported revenue of ¥2.9T in FY2026 versus ¥3.5T in FY2022, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥169B in FY2026, compounding +1.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €10.3B · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) €0.8400 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 37%, 4JP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €9.80Fair Value €13.06Bull €16.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.0% vs 0.5%, slowing
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.3%/yr over ~7Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+32.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)21.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Post Insurance Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4JP
Frequently asked questions
Is Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €13.06 versus a price of €9.50, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4JP?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Post Insurance Co is €13.06 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.50.
What is the quality score of 4JP?
Japan Post Insurance Co has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €13.06 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.80, optimistic scenario €16.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Japan Post Insurance Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €13.06, about +37% upside versus a price of €9.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €9.80, optimistic scenario €16.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
Japan Post Insurance Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Japan Post Insurance Co pay a dividend?
Japan Post Insurance Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Post Insurance Co it is €13.06 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €9.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Japan Post Insurance Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 4JP trades below its calculated fair value: price €9.50, fair value €13.06, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4JP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€13.06). For Japan Post Insurance Co the two are €3.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Japan Post Insurance Co worth?
The market values Japan Post Insurance Co at about €10.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €9.50; our models calculate a fair value of €13.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4JP?
Our models span a range for Japan Post Insurance Co: cautious scenario €9.80, base €13.06, optimistic €16.33 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €9.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4JP?
Japan Post Insurance Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €13.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 0.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Japan Post Insurance Co (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 4.2%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4JP from its 52-week high?
Japan Post Insurance Co trades at €9.50, about 6% below its 52-week high of €10.10 and 32% above the low of €7.17 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €13.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Japan Post Insurance Co?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Japan Post Insurance Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €9.50, calculated fair value €13.06 (+37%), Quality Score 24/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4JP calculated?
We run Japan Post Insurance Co through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €13.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Japan Post Insurance Co currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €9.50. Our model-based fair value is €13.06, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Japan Post Insurance Co right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€9.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Japan Post Insurance Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
The market capitalisation of Japan Post Insurance Co is €10.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Post Insurance Co is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
Earnings per share at Japan Post Insurance Co are €0.8400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
The dividend yield of Japan Post Insurance Co is 2.7% (payout 30.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
The net margin of Japan Post Insurance Co is 5.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Post Insurance Co is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Japan Post Insurance Co is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
The operating margin of Japan Post Insurance Co is 21.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
Revenue at Japan Post Insurance Co is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP)?
Earnings per share at Japan Post Insurance Co are growing +2.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Japan Post Insurance Co (4JP) generate?
The free cash flow of Japan Post Insurance Co is −¥1.9T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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