Neil Industries Limited (539016) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Neil Industries Limited ₹1.91, price ₹6.17, upside -69.0%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹4.35 – ₹20.84 · fair‑value band ₹1.32 – ₹2.51 · the ₹6.17 price screens above the ₹1.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
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Neil Industries Limited (539016) currently trades at ₹6.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1.91, implying the stock looks roughly 223.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹5.96 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the ₹6.17 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ₹2.86, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹1.32 (bear) to ₹2.51 (bull), the price of ₹6.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Neil Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹39.5M in FY2026 versus ₹29.6M in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹14.8M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹416M (≈ $4.3M) · P/E ratio 35.5 · P/S ratio 13.3 · EPS (TTM) ₹0.6000 · Net margin 37.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Free cash flow ₹17.7M · Net debt ₹48.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at 100% fair-value upside, at −69%, 539016 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹1.32Fair Value ₹1.91Bull ₹2.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.2926 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −16.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 8%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.71% → 56%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.7%/yr over ~8Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.0% a year for the price.
Compare Neil Industries Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Banking Services” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Financials · 3294 stocks
Beats the sector median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−44% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)38% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financials median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.5× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 42
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Neil Industries Limited (539016) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1.91 versus a price of ₹6.17, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 539016?
Our model-based fair value for Neil Industries Limited is ₹1.91 (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹6.17.
What is the quality score of 539016?
Neil Industries Limited has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1.91 (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹1.32, optimistic scenario ₹2.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neil Industries Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1.91, about −69% upside versus a price of ₹6.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹1.32, optimistic scenario ₹2.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neil Industries Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Sep 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 539016 use?
Our models discount Neil Industries Limited at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neil Industries Limited that is +2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neil Industries Limited (539016) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Neil Industries Limited grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Neil Industries Limited (539016) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Neil Industries Limited (+2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.68 %: that much free cash flow Neil Industries Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neil Industries Limited it is ₹1.91 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of ₹6.17. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neil Industries Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, 539016 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹6.17, fair value ₹1.91, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 539016?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹6.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1.91). For Neil Industries Limited the two are ₹4.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neil Industries Limited worth?
The market values Neil Industries Limited at about ₹416M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is ₹6.17; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 539016?
Our models span a range for Neil Industries Limited: cautious scenario ₹1.32, base ₹1.91, optimistic ₹2.51 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price ₹6.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 539016?
Neil Industries Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.5 (as of Sep 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: EV/EBITDA 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neil Industries Limited (as of Sep 25, 2026): debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 539016 from its 52-week high?
Neil Industries Limited trades at ₹6.17, about 26% below its 52-week high of ₹8.35 and 9% above the low of ₹5.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neil Industries Limited?
From the same area (Financials) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, LTG, FDC, Han Kook Capital.Co., Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neil Industries Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price ₹6.17, calculated fair value ₹1.91 (−69%), Quality Score 68/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 539016 calculated?
We run Neil Industries Limited through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Neil Industries Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ₹6.17. Our model-based fair value is ₹1.91, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neil Industries Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹2.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹1.32 to ₹2.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Neil Industries Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
The market capitalisation of Neil Industries Limited is ₹416M (≈ $4.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neil Industries Limited is 13.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
Earnings per share at Neil Industries Limited are ₹0.6000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
The net margin of Neil Industries Limited is 37.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neil Industries Limited (539016)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neil Industries Limited is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net debt does Neil Industries Limited (539016) carry?
The net debt of Neil Industries Limited is ₹48.8M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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