As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of NSDL ₹392, price ₹787, upside -50.2%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range ₹786.95 – ₹1,340 · fair‑value band ₹185.12 – ₹581.05 · the ₹786.95 price screens above the ₹391.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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NSDL (NSDL) currently trades at ₹786.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹391.82, implying the stock looks roughly 100.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹414.76 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the ₹786.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹79.39, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹185.12 (bear) to ₹581.05 (bull), the price of ₹786.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NSDL reported revenue of ₹15.3B in FY2026 versus ₹7.6B in FY2022, a compound +19.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹3.8B in FY2026, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹171B (≈ $1.8B) · P/E ratio 41.4 · P/S ratio 10.3 · EPS (TTM) ₹19.01 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 24.8% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −50%, NSDL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹185.12Fair Value ₹391.82Bull ₹581.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹7.28 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 25%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.0% a year for the price and +4.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−50% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)41.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.22× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)10.31× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA29.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 88
PAST (return on equity)69· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NSDL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NSDL
Frequently asked questions
Is NSDL overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹391.82 versus a price of ₹786.95, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NSDL?
Our model-based fair value for NSDL is ₹391.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹786.95.
What is the quality score of NSDL?
NSDL has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NSDL?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹391.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹185.12, optimistic scenario ₹581.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NSDL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹391.82, about −50% upside versus a price of ₹786.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹185.12, optimistic scenario ₹581.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NSDL?
NSDL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹16.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NSDL pay a dividend?
NSDL currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NSDL?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NSDL would have to grow free cash flow by +25.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +19.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NSDL use?
Our models discount NSDL at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NSDL that is +25.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NSDL delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at NSDL grew +19.1 % a year. The price currently implies +25.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of NSDL?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.67 %: that much free cash flow NSDL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NSDL?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NSDL it is ₹391.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹786.95. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NSDL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NSDL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹786.95, fair value ₹391.82, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NSDL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹786.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹391.82). For NSDL the two are ₹395.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NSDL worth?
The market values NSDL at about ₹171B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹786.95; our models calculate a fair value of ₹391.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NSDL?
Our models span a range for NSDL: cautious scenario ₹185.12, base ₹391.82, optimistic ₹581.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹786.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NSDL?
NSDL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹391.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.2, P/S 10.3, EV/EBITDA 29.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of NSDL?
Balance-sheet figures for NSDL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NSDL from its 52-week high?
NSDL trades at ₹786.95, about 45% below its 52-week high of ₹1,423 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹391.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NSDL?
From the same area (Financials) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NSDL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹786.95, calculated fair value ₹391.82 (−50%), Quality Score 65/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NSDL calculated?
We run NSDL through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹391.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NSDL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NSDL?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ₹786.95. Our model-based fair value is ₹391.82, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NSDL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹581.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (₹185.12 to ₹581.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of NSDL
How large is the market capitalisation of NSDL?
The market capitalisation of NSDL is ₹171B (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NSDL?
The price-to-sales ratio of NSDL is 10.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NSDL?
Earnings per share at NSDL are ₹19.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NSDL?
The dividend yield of NSDL is 0.5% (payout 21.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NSDL?
The net margin of NSDL is 24.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NSDL?
The return on equity (ROE) of NSDL is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NSDL?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NSDL is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NSDL?
The operating margin of NSDL is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NSDL?
Revenue at NSDL is growing +23.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NSDL?
Earnings per share at NSDL are growing +8.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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