Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Ezaki Glico Co €10.36, price €27.80, upside -62.7%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 0 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
EGBroad dataSep 30, 2026
Ezaki Glico Co
5EJ · F
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.30 – €33.32 · fair‑value band €7.41 – €13.26 · the €27.80 price screens above the €10.36 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Ezaki Glico Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells confectionery, health and food, dairy products, and food ingredients in Japan, China, Southeast Asia, the United States, and internationally.
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Ezaki Glico Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells confectionery, health and food, dairy products, and food ingredients in Japan, China, Southeast Asia, the United States, and internationally. It operates through six segments: Health and Food Business; Dairy Business; Nutritional Confectionery Business; Food Ingredients Business; Other Domestic Business; and Overseas Business. The company produces and sells health-related products, retort food, ice cream, milk, dairy products, western confectioneries, chocolate, biscuits, wheat protein, modified starch, coloring, fine chemical materials and others. It also provides baby formula and processed foods. It sells its products in offices and stores, as well as through e-commerce. Ezaki Glico Co., Ltd. was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ) currently trades at €27.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.36, 62.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €21.47 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the €27.80 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €3.32, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €7.41 (bear) to €13.26 (bull), the price of €27.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ezaki Glico Co reported revenue of ¥361B in FY2025 versus ¥304B in FY2022, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥5.0B in FY2025, compounding −14.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €1.8B · P/E ratio 50.5 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) €0.5500 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −63%, 5EJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €7.41Fair Value €10.36Bull €13.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 631 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−62.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)50.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.12× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.82× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF20.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.2× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)9· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)38· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ezaki Glico Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5EJ
Frequently asked questions
Is Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.36 versus a price of €27.80, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5EJ?
Our model-based fair value for Ezaki Glico Co is €10.36 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €27.80.
What is the quality score of 5EJ?
Ezaki Glico Co has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.36 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.41, optimistic scenario €13.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ezaki Glico Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.36, about −63% upside versus a price of €27.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.41, optimistic scenario €13.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
Ezaki Glico Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥377B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Ezaki Glico Co pay a dividend?
Ezaki Glico Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ezaki Glico Co would have to grow free cash flow by +5.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5EJ use?
Our models discount Ezaki Glico Co at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.01, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ezaki Glico Co that is +5.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Ezaki Glico Co grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +5.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ezaki Glico Co (+5.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.74 %: that much free cash flow Ezaki Glico Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ezaki Glico Co it is €10.36 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €27.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ezaki Glico Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 5EJ trades above its calculated fair value: price €27.80, fair value €10.36, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5EJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€27.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.36). For Ezaki Glico Co the two are €17.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ezaki Glico Co worth?
The market values Ezaki Glico Co at about €1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €27.80; our models calculate a fair value of €10.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5EJ?
Our models span a range for Ezaki Glico Co: cautious scenario €7.41, base €10.36, optimistic €13.26 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €27.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5EJ?
Ezaki Glico Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.5 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ezaki Glico Co (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 2.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5EJ from its 52-week high?
Ezaki Glico Co trades at €27.80, about 17% below its 52-week high of €33.32 and 7% above the low of €25.94 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ezaki Glico Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ezaki Glico Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €27.80, calculated fair value €10.36 (−63%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5EJ calculated?
We run Ezaki Glico Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ezaki Glico Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €27.80. Our model-based fair value is €10.36, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ezaki Glico Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€13.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Ezaki Glico Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
The market capitalisation of Ezaki Glico Co is €1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ezaki Glico Co is 0.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
Earnings per share at Ezaki Glico Co are €0.5500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
The dividend yield of Ezaki Glico Co is 1.9% (payout 96.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
The net margin of Ezaki Glico Co is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ezaki Glico Co is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ezaki Glico Co is 3.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
The operating margin of Ezaki Glico Co is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
Revenue at Ezaki Glico Co is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ezaki Glico Co (5EJ)?
Earnings per share at Ezaki Glico Co are growing +10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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