Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd ¥39.39, price ¥13.13, upside +200.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.16 – ¥28.07 · fair‑value band ¥25.25 – ¥61.48 · the ¥13.13 price screens below the ¥39.39 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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FESCO Group Co., Ltd. operates in the human resources service industry in China. The company offers human resources services, including personnel management, welfare services, business outsourcing, salary and benefits, recruitment and flexible employment, and consulting services to various organizations.
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FESCO Group Co., Ltd. operates in the human resources service industry in China. The company offers human resources services, including personnel management, welfare services, business outsourcing, salary and benefits, recruitment and flexible employment, and consulting services to various organizations. It also provides vocational education, international education, international talent services, talent development consulting, human resources management consulting, legal consulting, background checks, and off-the-job placement solutions. The company was formerly known as Beijing Urban-Rural Commercial (Group)Co., Ltd. FESCO Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1979 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861) currently trades at ¥13.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥39.39, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥96.01 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥13.13 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥8.65, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥25.25 (bear) to ¥61.48 (bull), the price of ¥13.13 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 45.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 697M CNY in FY2021, a compound +183.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 7.4B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.35 · Dividend yield 7.9% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at 200%, 600861 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥25.25Fair Value ¥39.39Bull ¥61.48
Price ¥13.13 · Upside +200.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2475 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF¥43.84¥57.96¥100.1476
Growth DCF¥41.90¥62.85¥95.7775
EPV¥29.94¥32.23¥34.1474
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥43.84¥57.96¥100.1476
Owner Earnings¥43.12¥75.27¥134.9271
5Y Revenue Exit¥40.79¥60.66¥102.2169
5Y EBITDA Exit¥41.24¥61.55¥101.3371
5Y P/E Exit¥46.55¥86.99¥141.9566
10Y Revenue Exit¥41.05¥72.88¥92.7565
10Y EBITDA Exit¥42.26¥73.74¥127.3864
10Y P/E Exit¥45.80¥84.17¥146.8059
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥14.05¥98.00¥137.5261
Lynch FV¥50.63¥72.33¥94.0259
PEG = 1.0¥50.63¥72.33¥94.0255
EPV¥29.94¥32.23¥34.1474
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥5.61¥10.11¥13.9266
DDM Multi-Stage¥5.61¥9.24¥10.8065
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥34.10¥45.46¥56.8363
P/S Multiple¥26.35¥35.13¥43.9158
P/B Multiple¥26.35¥35.13¥43.9155
EV/EBIT¥48.82¥60.71¥72.6166
EV/EBITDA¥39.55¥48.35¥57.1567
EV/Revenue¥37.19¥47.50¥57.8154
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥6.45¥8.65¥12.9154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥41.90¥62.85¥95.7775
Rev-Margin DCF¥43.65¥67.48¥117.3368
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥12.45¥15.70¥23.0473
ROIC Compounder¥29.94¥32.23¥34.1470
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥67.21¥96.01¥124.8165
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+129.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.5% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
’14
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11% → 3%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 58% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.3% a year for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Staffing & Employment Services · 82 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600861
Frequently asked questions
Is Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥39.39 versus a price of ¥13.13, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600861?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is ¥39.39 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.13.
What is the quality score of 600861?
Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥39.39 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥25.25, optimistic scenario ¥61.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥39.39, about +200% upside versus a price of ¥13.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥25.25, optimistic scenario ¥61.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 45.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.87% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +129.9 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600861 use?
Our models discount Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd grew +129.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.05 %: that much free cash flow Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd it is ¥39.39 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of ¥13.13. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 600861 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥13.13, fair value ¥39.39, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600861?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥39.39). For Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd the two are ¥26.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd at about 7.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.13; our models calculate a fair value of ¥39.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600861?
Our models span a range for Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥25.25, base ¥39.39, optimistic ¥61.48 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price ¥13.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600861?
Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥39.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
Balance-sheet figures for Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600861 from its 52-week high?
Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd trades at ¥13.13, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥19.74 and 8% above the low of ¥12.16 (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥39.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adecco Group, Korn Ferry,, Robert Half Inc, TriNet Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price ¥13.13, calculated fair value ¥39.39 (+200%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600861 calculated?
We run Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥39.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was ¥13.13. Our model-based fair value is ¥39.39, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥25.25). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (¥25.25 to ¥61.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861) come from?
Earnings per share at Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd grew +16.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +29.9 %, EBIT margin −6.5 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
The market capitalisation of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is 7.4B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is 0.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
Earnings per share at Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd are ¥1.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
The dividend yield of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is 7.9% (payout 76.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
The net margin of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is 11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
The operating margin of Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
Revenue at Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd is growing −6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861)?
Earnings per share at Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd are growing −33.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd (600861) hold?
Beijing Urban Rural Commercial Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 7.1B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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