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Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · CN · ISIN CNE100004QD7

SR Some data Sep 18, 2026

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd

601825 · SHG

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value ¥12.96 · Undervalued (+48%)
!Quality 47/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −9.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 52.0% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
·4.97% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥9.65 ¥4.20 Fair Value ¥12.96 Aug 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.20 – ¥9.65 · fair‑value band ¥11.70 – ¥19.27 · the ¥8.75 price screens below the ¥12.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. engages in commercial banking business in China. The company accepts public deposits; acts as agent for the issuance, redemption, and underwriting of government bonds; buying and selling government bonds and financial bonds.

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Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. engages in commercial banking business in China. The company accepts public deposits; acts as agent for the issuance, redemption, and underwriting of government bonds; buying and selling government bonds and financial bonds. It also provides short-term, medium-term, and long-term loans; handling domestic and foreign settlements; handling bill acceptance and discounting; interbank lending; bank card services; and foreign exchange deposits, foreign exchange loans, foreign exchange remittances, international settlements, interbank foreign exchange lending, credit investigation, consulting, and witnessing services. In addition, the company acts as agent for receiving and paying funds and insurance business; provides safe deposit box and financial leasing services; and engages in foreign exchange settlement and sales business, other businesses. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Rural Credit Co-operatives Union and changed its name to Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. in August 2005. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) currently trades at ¥8.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.96, implying the stock looks roughly 32.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥16.60 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥8.75 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥8.67, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥11.70 (bear) to ¥19.27 (bull), the price of ¥8.75 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported revenue of 25.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 45.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −13.7%/yr. Reported net income was 12.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 84.4B CNY (≈ $12.6B) · P/E ratio 6.8 · P/S ratio 3.30 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.29 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 48.7% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 48%, 601825 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥11.70 Fair Value ¥12.96 Bull ¥19.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.6112 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥11.58 ¥12.78 ¥18.18 76
Gordon GGM ¥5.78 ¥10.48 ¥16.64 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.78 ¥8.67 ¥11.83 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥5.78 ¥10.48 ¥16.64 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.78 ¥8.67 ¥11.83 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥12.45 ¥16.60 ¥20.75 63
P/B Multiple ¥13.93 ¥18.57 ¥23.21 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥6.63 ¥8.89 ¥13.26 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥11.58 ¥12.78 ¥18.18 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−50.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 6%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 30%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1073 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside +94% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 52% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 73% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.0% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.61× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.27× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)97 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 44
PAST (return on equity)38 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)99 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group DBS19 20.20 THB 6.69 THB −67%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.35 HK$78.59 +53%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.74 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB $23.16 $15.60 −33%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €102.32 €105.99 +4%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.92 €77.62 −6%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.15 $9.67 −13%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,359 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $231.49 $159.52 −31%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 31.28 SGD 19.80 SGD −37%

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Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥12.96 +32%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601825

Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥12.96 versus a price of ¥8.75, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601825?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is ¥12.96 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.75.
What is the quality score of 601825?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥12.96 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.70, optimistic scenario ¥19.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥12.96, about +48% upside versus a price of ¥8.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥11.70, optimistic scenario ¥19.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 23.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd it is ¥12.96 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥8.75. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 601825 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥8.75, fair value ¥12.96, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601825?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥12.96). For Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd the two are ¥4.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd at about 84.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.75; our models calculate a fair value of ¥12.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601825?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥11.70, base ¥12.96, optimistic ¥19.27 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥8.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601825?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.8 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥12.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 9.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601825 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd trades at ¥8.75, about 12% below its 52-week high of ¥9.95 and 9% above the low of ¥8.02 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥12.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥8.75, calculated fair value ¥12.96 (+48%), Quality Score 47/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601825 calculated?
We run Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥12.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥8.75. Our model-based fair value is ¥12.96, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥11.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd grew +8.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 84.4B CNY (≈ $12.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 3.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd are ¥1.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 5.0% (payout 33.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
The net margin of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 48.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 73.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Revenue at Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is growing −1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) generate?
The free cash flow of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is −12.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) carry?
The net debt of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is 21.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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