Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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SRShanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd601825 · SHG
Price¥8.98
Fair Value¥17.47
Upside+94.5%
Quality47/100
Below-average quality, trading 49% below our fair value of ¥17.47.
As of Aug 26, 2026, the fair value of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is ¥17.47 per share against a price of ¥8.98, so the fair value sits 95% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −9.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 52.0% net margin
!negative free cash flow
·4.84% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: MediumRange ¥13.11 to ¥21.84
Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +8.7% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥13.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.20 – ¥9.65 · fair‑value band ¥13.11 – ¥21.84 · the ¥8.98 price screens below the ¥17.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) currently trades at ¥8.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.47, implying the stock looks roughly 48.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥16.60 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥8.98 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥8.67, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd generated revenue of 23.7B CNY at a net margin of 52.0%. Revenue declined 1.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at 21.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026
Scenario range: ¥13.11 (bear) to ¥21.84 (bull), the price of ¥8.98 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 95%, 601825 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.5880 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence¥11.58¥12.78¥18.1876
Gordon GGM¥5.78¥10.48¥16.6466
DDM Multi-Stage¥5.78¥8.67¥11.8366
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥5.78¥10.48¥16.6466
DDM Multi-Stage¥5.78¥8.67¥11.8366
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥12.45¥16.60¥20.7563
P/B Multiple¥13.93¥18.57¥23.2155
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥6.63¥8.89¥13.2651
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence¥11.58¥12.78¥18.1876
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥16.60) versus Dividend Discount (¥8.67). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio7.0
P/S ratio3.39P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)¥1.29price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.0
Dividend yield4.8%payout 33.7%
Net margin48.7%FY2025
Return on equity9.6%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)1.0%avg 5y
Operating margin73.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)23.7B CNYTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−1.3%3y avg −19.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−12.5B CNYFY2025
Net debt21.0B CNYFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality47/100
Of which business quality 42
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Profitability34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance83
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. engages in commercial banking business in China. The company accepts public deposits; acts as agent for the issuance, redemption, and underwriting of government bonds; buying and selling government bonds and financial bonds.
Full company description
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. engages in commercial banking business in China. The company accepts public deposits; acts as agent for the issuance, redemption, and underwriting of government bonds; buying and selling government bonds and financial bonds. It also provides short-term, medium-term, and long-term loans; handling domestic and foreign settlements; handling bill acceptance and discounting; interbank lending; bank card services; and foreign exchange deposits, foreign exchange loans, foreign exchange remittances, international settlements, interbank foreign exchange lending, credit investigation, consulting, and witnessing services. In addition, the company acts as agent for receiving and paying funds and insurance business; provides safe deposit box and financial leasing services; and engages in foreign exchange settlement and sales business, other businesses. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Rural Credit Co-operatives Union and changed its name to Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. in August 2005. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported revenue of 25.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 45.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −13.7%/yr. Reported net income was 12.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 19/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
25.3B CNY
Latest YoY
−50.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−19.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+6.8%
Dividend yield4.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 6.8% vs 10Y 6.1%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28.9% (2019) → 29.6% (2024) · steady
Worst earnings drop25% (2012) · in CNY
Revenue−13.7%/yr
FY2145.7B CNY
FY2248.3B CNY
FY2351.0B CNY
FY2450.7B CNY
FY2525.3B CNY
Net income+6.2%/yr
FY219.7B CNY
FY2211.0B CNY
FY2312.1B CNY
FY2412.3B CNY
FY2512.3B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024)+8.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share+6.2 %
of which total revenue +8.4 % · buybacks/dilution −2.1 %
EBIT margin+1.3 %
Tax rate+0.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 33
FUTURE0· sector 44
PAST38· sector 41
HEALTH0· sector 85
DIVIDEND97· sector 51
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥17.47 versus a price of ¥8.98, about +95% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601825?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is ¥17.47 (as of Aug 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.98.
What is the quality score of 601825?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥17.47 (as of Aug 26, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥13.11, optimistic scenario ¥21.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥17.47, about +95% upside versus a price of ¥8.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥13.11, optimistic scenario ¥21.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 23.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601825?
The net profit margin of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd is about 52.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 52.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.84% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd it is ¥17.47 per share (as of Aug 26, 2026), against a price of ¥8.98. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 26, 2026, 601825 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥8.98, fair value ¥17.47, a gap of about +95% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601825?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥17.47). For Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd the two are ¥8.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd at about 86.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Aug 26, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.98; our models calculate a fair value of ¥17.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601825?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥13.11, base ¥17.47, optimistic ¥21.84 per share (as of Aug 26, 2026, price ¥8.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601825?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.0 (as of Aug 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥17.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (601825)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd (as of Aug 26, 2026): return on equity 9.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601825 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd trades at ¥8.98, about 10% below its 52-week high of ¥9.95 and 12% above the low of ¥8.02 (as of Aug 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥17.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 26, 2026: price ¥8.98, calculated fair value ¥17.47 (+95%), Quality Score 47/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601825 calculated?
We run Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥17.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co Ltd currently trades 95 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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