Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool ¥23.05, price ¥23.98, upside -3.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.51 – ¥39.55 · fair‑value band ¥22.56 – ¥23.28 · the ¥23.98 price screens above the ¥23.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.
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Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. research, develops, produces, sells, and services hydraulic and mechanical presses in China and internationally. The company offers color sorters, mobile crushing and screening equipment, intelligent integrated control, and new materials.
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Hefei Metalforming Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. research, develops, produces, sells, and services hydraulic and mechanical presses in China and internationally. The company offers color sorters, mobile crushing and screening equipment, intelligent integrated control, and new materials. Its products are mainly used in automobiles, home appliances, military industry, aerospace, petrochemical, new material applications, and other fields. The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Hefei, China.
Stock analysis
Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011) currently trades at ¥23.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥23.05, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥6.16 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥23.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.56, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥22.56 (bear) to ¥23.28 (bull), the price of ¥23.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool reported revenue of 2.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was −249M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 11.9B CNY (≈ $1.8B) · P/S ratio 5.87 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.5900 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −11.7% · Return on equity −14.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin −0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −4%, 603011 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.4200 to ¥10.42). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥22.56Fair Value ¥23.05Bull ¥23.28
Price ¥23.98 · Upside -3.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.0% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.9% (2019) → −3.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.2% a year for the price.
Compare Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 805 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−3.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−14.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−15.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥23.05 versus a price of ¥23.98, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 603011?
Our model-based fair value for Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is ¥23.05 (as of Oct 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥23.98.
What is the quality score of 603011?
Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥23.05 (as of Oct 5, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥22.56, optimistic scenario ¥23.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥23.05, about −4% upside versus a price of ¥23.98 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥22.56, optimistic scenario ¥23.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 5, 2026).
Does Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool pay a dividend?
Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool would have to grow free cash flow by +35.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.4 % per year. As of Oct 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603011 use?
Our models discount Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.07, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool that is +35.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool grew +20.4 % a year. The price currently implies +35.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (+35.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.82 %: that much free cash flow Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool it is ¥23.05 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026), against a price of ¥23.98. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 5, 2026, 603011 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥23.98, fair value ¥23.05, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603011?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥23.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥23.05). For Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool the two are ¥0.9300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool worth?
The market values Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool at about 11.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥23.98; our models calculate a fair value of ¥23.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603011?
Our models span a range for Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool: cautious scenario ¥22.56, base ¥23.05, optimistic ¥23.28 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026, price ¥23.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (as of Oct 5, 2026): return on equity −14.6%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603011 from its 52-week high?
Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool trades at ¥23.98, about 39% below its 52-week high of ¥39.55 and 45% above the low of ¥16.50 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥23.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 5, 2026: price ¥23.98, calculated fair value ¥23.05 (−4%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603011 calculated?
We run Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥23.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥23.98. Our model-based fair value is ¥23.05, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥23.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The models converge in a tight band (¥22.56 to ¥23.28), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool
How large is the market capitalisation of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
The market capitalisation of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is 11.9B CNY (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is 5.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
Earnings per share at Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool are ¥−0.5900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
The dividend yield of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
The net margin of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is −11.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is −14.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
The operating margin of Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
Revenue at Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool is growing −15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011)?
Earnings per share at Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool are growing −57.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool (603011) hold?
Hefei Metalforming Mach Tool holds more cash than debt, 179M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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