Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co (603538) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CN · Market cap 9.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 11, 2026, revised from ¥8.99 to ¥6.18 (−31.3%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −5.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 79% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥3.59 to ¥8.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.01 – ¥68.50 · fair‑value band ¥3.59 – ¥8.27 · the ¥29.20 price screens above the ¥6.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 11, 2026.
Analysis
Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co (603538) currently trades at ¥29.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.18, implying the stock looks roughly 78.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co generated revenue of 1.6B CNY at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 22.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at 674M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.59 (bear case) to ¥8.27 (bull case); at ¥29.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -79%, 603538 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥6.62) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. research, develops, produces, and sells pharmaceutical products. The company's products portfolio includes valsartan, losartan, clopidogrel, perindopril, rosuvastatin calcium, atorvastatin calcium, purin bahrain, and other products.
Full company description
Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. research, develops, produces, and sells pharmaceutical products. The company's products portfolio includes valsartan, losartan, clopidogrel, perindopril, rosuvastatin calcium, atorvastatin calcium, purin bahrain, and other products. It offers APIs, intermediates, and preparations for the treatment of cardiovascular, central nervous system, gastrointestinal tract, and other therapeutic areas. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Ningbo, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co reported revenue of ¥1.5B in FY2025 versus ¥1.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥102M in FY2025, compounding −8.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −4.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
603538 screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 621 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.19 | ¥25.94 | -51% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,933 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹7,316 | ₹1,943 | -73% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,763 | ₹1,329 | -72% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,285 TWD | 221.01 TWD | -83% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,439 | ₹1,001 | -30% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,151 | ₹703.32 | -39% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,443 | ₹2,477 | +1% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,484 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,211 | ₹874.79 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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