LIULIUMEI (6658) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of LIULIUMEI HK$45.20, price HK$195, upside -76.8%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
3‑month range HK$124.00 – HK$210.20 · fair‑value band HK$31.64 – HK$58.76 · the HK$194.80 price screens above the HK$45.20 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Liuliumei Co., Ltd. operates as a fruit snack company that produces and sells plum-based products. Its products include Snow Plum, Refreshing Plum, Preserved Plum, Smoked Plum, Prune Knight, dried plum snacks, and prune-based products. It also offers Dameida plum gummies, plum tea concentrate, and electrolyte-infused slushy jelly.
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Liuliumei Co., Ltd. operates as a fruit snack company that produces and sells plum-based products. Its products include Snow Plum, Refreshing Plum, Preserved Plum, Smoked Plum, Prune Knight, dried plum snacks, and prune-based products. It also offers Dameida plum gummies, plum tea concentrate, and electrolyte-infused slushy jelly. It sells its products through online stores, supermarkets, membership stores, snack stores, and a distributorship network. It operates under the brand names Liuliumei and Fiber Life. The company was formerly known as Liuliu Orchard Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Liuliumei Co., Ltd. in April 2016. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Wuhu, China.
Stock analysis
LIULIUMEI (6658) currently trades at HK$194.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$45.20, implying the stock looks roughly 331.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$39.28 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$194.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$7.50, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$31.64 (bear) to HK$58.76 (bull), the price of HK$194.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
LIULIUMEI reported revenue of 1.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.3B CNY in FY2023, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 182M CNY in FY2025, compounding +35.5%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap HK$15.4B (≈ $2.0B) · P/E ratio 65.7 · P/S ratio 7.00 · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 24.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% · Operating margin 13.4% · Revenue (TTM) 1.7B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −77%, 6658 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$7.50 to HK$61.72). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$31.64Fair Value HK$45.20Bull HK$58.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 668 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)65.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B14.88× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.67× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA44.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)97· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LIULIUMEI Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6658
Frequently asked questions
Is LIULIUMEI (6658) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$45.20 versus a price of HK$194.80, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6658?
Our model-based fair value for LIULIUMEI is HK$45.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$194.80.
What is the quality score of 6658?
LIULIUMEI has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LIULIUMEI (6658)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$45.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$31.64, optimistic scenario HK$58.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LIULIUMEI stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$45.20, about −77% upside versus a price of HK$194.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$31.64, optimistic scenario HK$58.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
LIULIUMEI reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LIULIUMEI it is HK$45.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$194.80. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LIULIUMEI stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6658 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$194.80, fair value HK$45.20, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6658?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$194.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$45.20). For LIULIUMEI the two are HK$149.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LIULIUMEI worth?
The market values LIULIUMEI at about HK$15.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$194.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$45.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6658?
Our models span a range for LIULIUMEI: cautious scenario HK$31.64, base HK$45.20, optimistic HK$58.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$194.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6658?
LIULIUMEI trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 65.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$45.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 14.9, P/S 7.7, EV/EBITDA 44.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
Balance-sheet figures for LIULIUMEI (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 24.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to LIULIUMEI?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LIULIUMEI stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$194.80, calculated fair value HK$45.20 (−77%), Quality Score 54/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6658 calculated?
We run LIULIUMEI through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$45.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. LIULIUMEI itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$194.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$45.20, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LIULIUMEI right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$58.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$31.64 to HK$58.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of LIULIUMEI
How large is the market capitalisation of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The market capitalisation of LIULIUMEI is HK$15.4B (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LIULIUMEI is 7.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The net margin of LIULIUMEI is 10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LIULIUMEI is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LIULIUMEI is 10.5% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The operating margin of LIULIUMEI is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does LIULIUMEI (6658) generate?
The free cash flow of LIULIUMEI is −94.2M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does LIULIUMEI (6658) carry?
The net debt of LIULIUMEI is 444M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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