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LIULIUMEI (6658) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of LIULIUMEI stock HK$45.42, price HK$157, that is 71.0% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive HK · Based in China

L LIULIUMEI logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

LIULIUMEI

6658 · HK
Stretched Valuation

Our calculation puts a fair price 71% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 12.0% net margin (TTM)
Profit last quarter +33% vs. a year ago.
Quality 54/100
Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +5.9 %/yr in CNY)
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Moderate moat 60/100
Some data
Fair value HK$45.42 · Strongly overvalued
Negative free cash flow
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$210.20 HK$124.00 Fair Value HK$45.42 Jun 2026 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

5‑month range HK$124.00 – HK$210.20 · fair‑value band HK$31.80 – HK$59.05 · the HK$156.80 price screens above the HK$45.42 fair value. As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Liuliumei Co., Ltd. operates as a fruit snack company that produces and sells plum-based products. Its products include Snow Plum, Refreshing Plum, Preserved Plum, Smoked Plum, Prune Knight, dried plum snacks, and prune-based products.

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It also offers Dameida plum gummies, plum tea concentrate, and electrolyte-infused slushy jelly. It sells its products through online stores, supermarkets, membership stores, snack stores, and a distributorship network. It operates under the brand names Liuliumei and Fiber Life.

The company was formerly known as Liuliu Orchard Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Liuliumei Co., Ltd. in April 2016. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Wuhu, China.

Stock analysis

LIULIUMEI (6658) currently trades at HK$156.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$45.42, 71% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$50.10 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$156.80 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$23.40, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$31.80 (bear) to HK$59.05 (bull), the price of HK$156.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

LIULIUMEI reported revenue of 1.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.3B CNY in FY2023, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 182M CNY in FY2025, compounding +35.5%/yr from FY2023.

Key figures

Market cap HK$12.4B (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 49.7 · P/S ratio 5.29 · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 24.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% (3-year average) · Operating margin 17.4% · Revenue (TTM) 1.8B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −71%, 6658 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$0.3600 to HK$72.48). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$31.80 Fair Value HK$45.42 Bull HK$59.05
Price HK$156.80 · Downside -71.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV HK$21.47 HK$24.14 HK$26.34 70
EV/EBITDA HK$35.90 HK$50.08 HK$64.26 64
ROIC Compounder HK$23.08 HK$28.24 HK$34.14 64
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$18.45 HK$72.48 HK$98.39 58
Lynch FV HK$17.87 HK$25.53 HK$33.19 55
PEG = 1.0 HK$17.87 HK$25.53 HK$33.19 52
EPV HK$21.47 HK$24.14 HK$26.34 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$42.73 HK$56.98 HK$71.22 63
P/S Multiple HK$30.59 HK$40.78 HK$50.98 58
P/B Multiple HK$54.07 HK$72.10 HK$90.12 55
EV/EBIT HK$35.93 HK$50.11 HK$64.29 63
EV/EBITDA HK$35.90 HK$50.08 HK$64.26 64
EV/Revenue HK$20.14 HK$31.61 HK$43.08 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.2400 HK$0.3600 HK$0.4500 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$14.32 HK$18.56 HK$28.78 62
ROIC Compounder HK$23.08 HK$28.24 HK$34.14 64
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$31.82 HK$45.46 HK$59.10 61

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 60
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 68
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 56
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 35
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 58
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

6658 screens overvalued: fair value 71% below the price. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 625 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −71.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 24.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 12.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 17.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.6% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 49.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 11.93× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.81× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 30.5× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)53 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)97 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Wilmar International Limited F34 2.97 SGD 4.93 SGD +66% vs 6658
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥31.45 ¥41.84 +33% vs 6658
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $24.61 $29.20 +19% vs 6658
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥35.78 ¥39.22 +10% vs 6658
General Mills, Inc GIS $35.51 $35.30 −1% vs 6658
Danone S.A BN €67.12 €50.65 −25% vs 6658
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 85.85 CHF 59.51 −31% vs 6658
Kerry Group KRZ €98.00 €60.33 −38% vs 6658
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,282 ₹724.74 −43% vs 6658
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥26.21 ¥12.21 −53% vs 6658

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LIULIUMEI: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LIULIUMEI Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6658

Frequently asked questions

Is LIULIUMEI (6658) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$45.42 versus a price of HK$156.80, about 71% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6658?
Our model-based fair value for LIULIUMEI is HK$45.42 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$156.80.
What is the quality score of 6658?
LIULIUMEI has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LIULIUMEI (6658)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$45.42 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$31.80, optimistic scenario HK$59.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LIULIUMEI stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$45.42, about 71% lower versus a price of HK$156.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$31.80, optimistic scenario HK$59.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
LIULIUMEI reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LIULIUMEI it is HK$45.42 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of HK$156.80. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is LIULIUMEI stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6658 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$156.80, fair value HK$45.42, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6658?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$156.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$45.42). For LIULIUMEI the two are HK$111.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LIULIUMEI worth?
The market values LIULIUMEI at about HK$12.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is HK$156.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$45.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6658?
Our models span a range for LIULIUMEI: cautious scenario HK$31.80, base HK$45.42, optimistic HK$59.05 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price HK$156.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6658?
LIULIUMEI trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.7 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$45.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 11.9, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 30.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
Balance-sheet figures for LIULIUMEI (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 24.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to LIULIUMEI?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LIULIUMEI stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price HK$156.80, calculated fair value HK$45.42 (−71%), Quality Score 54/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6658 calculated?
We run LIULIUMEI through 14 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$45.42 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. LIULIUMEI itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$156.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$45.42, about 71% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LIULIUMEI right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$59.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$31.80 to HK$59.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of LIULIUMEI

How large is the market capitalisation of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The market capitalisation of LIULIUMEI is HK$12.4B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LIULIUMEI is 5.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The net margin of LIULIUMEI is 10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LIULIUMEI is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LIULIUMEI is 10.5% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LIULIUMEI (6658)?
The operating margin of LIULIUMEI is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LIULIUMEI (6658)?
Revenue at LIULIUMEI is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LIULIUMEI (6658)?
Earnings per share at LIULIUMEI are growing +33.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does LIULIUMEI (6658) generate?
The free cash flow of LIULIUMEI is −94.2M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does LIULIUMEI (6658) carry?
The net debt of LIULIUMEI is 444M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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