Ascentage Pharma Group (6855) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$13.1B (≈ $1.7B) · ISIN KYG0519B1023

What is Ascentage Pharma Group really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$25.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (11/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range (HK$12.94 to HK$25.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$11.44 – HK$90.70 · fair‑value band HK$12.94 – HK$25.95 · the HK$35.00 price screens above the HK$17.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Ascentage Pharma Group (6855) currently trades at HK$35.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$17.41, implying the stock looks roughly 101.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 11/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$574M. Revenue grew 117.0% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$491M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$12.94 (bear case) to HK$25.95 (bull case); at HK$35.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at −50%, 6855 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Ascentage Pharma Group International, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops therapies for cancers, chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), and age-related diseases in Mainland China. The company's primary product candidate is HQP1351, a BCR-ABL inhibitor targeting BCR-ABL1 mutants, including those with the T315I mutation.

Full company description

Ascentage Pharma Group International, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops therapies for cancers, chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), and age-related diseases in Mainland China. The company's primary product candidate is HQP1351, a BCR-ABL inhibitor targeting BCR-ABL1 mutants, including those with the T315I mutation. It also develops APG-2575, an oral administered Bcl-2 selective inhibitor for hematologic malignancies and solid tumors; APG-115, an oral small molecule inhibitor of the MDM2-p53 protein-protein interactions to treat solid tumors and hematological malignancies; and APG-1252, a small molecule drug to restore apoptosis through dual inhibition of the Bcl-2 and Bcl-xL proteins for the treatment of small-cell lung cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, neuroendocrine tumor, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. In addition, the company is developing APG-1387, a small-molecule inhibitor of apoptosis proteins for advanced solid tumors and chronic HBV infection; APG-5918, an orally available and selective embryonic ectoderm development inhibitor. In addition, it is involved in medical research and development; clinical development; clinical trials operations; venture capital investment; rental of buildings; and provision of science and technology promotion services. The company has collaboration relationships with biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies; and research institutions. Ascentage Pharma Group International was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ascentage Pharma Group reported revenue of 559M CNY in FY2025 versus 27.9M CNY in FY2021, a compound +111.6%/yr. Reported net income was −1.2B CNY in FY2025.

6855 screens 101% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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