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BioNTech SE (BNTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what BioNTech SE is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US09075V1026

BS BioNTech SE logo Thin data Sep 17, 2026

BioNTech SE

BNTX · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $62.63 · Strongly overvalued (−36%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +41.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -63.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (7/11)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$441.38 $78.36 Fair Value $62.63 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $78.36 – $441.38 · fair‑value band $49.46 – $78.89 · the $98.00 price screens above the $62.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

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Company profile

BioNTech SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapies in Germany. The company offers BNT162, an mRNA vaccine for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

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BioNTech SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapies in Germany. The company offers BNT162, an mRNA vaccine for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 virus. It also develops oncology drugs under Phase III clinical trial, including Gotistobart for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, Pumitamig for small cell lung cancer and advanced/metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, and Trastuzumab pamirtecan for metastatic breast cancer and epirubicin and cyclophosphamide; and drugs under Phase 2/3 clinical trial, such as BNT113 for human papillomavirus and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, as well as Pumitamig for metastatic colorectal and non-small cell lung cancer. In addition, the company engages in the development of oncology drugs under Phase II clinical trial comprising BNT116 for advance non-small cell lung cancer, BNT326/YL202 for multiple solid tumors and advanced/metastatic breast cancer, Autogene cevumeran for advance colorectal cancer, and Gotistobart for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, as well as Pumitamig for glioblastoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, malignant pleural mesothelioma, neuroendocrine neoplasms, and metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Further, it develops BNT166 which is Phase II clinical trial for mpox virus; and infectious diseases drugs under Phase 1/2 clinical trial, which include BNT162 + BNT161 for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, BNT164 for tuberculosis, BNT165 for malaria, and BNT166 for mpox. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Mainz, Germany.

Stock analysis

BioNTech SE (BNTX) currently trades at $98.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $62.63, implying the stock looks roughly 56.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $58.13 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $98.00 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $43.65, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $49.46 (bear) to $78.89 (bull), the price of $98.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

BioNTech SE reported revenue of €2.8B in FY2025 versus €19.0B in FY2021, a compound −38.3%/yr. Reported net income was −€1.1B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $23.7B · P/S ratio 8.88 · EPS (TTM) $−7.76 · Net margin −39.6% · Return on equity −9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.0% · Operating margin −807% · Revenue (TTM) $2.6B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −36%, BNTX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $49.46 Fair Value $62.63 Bull $78.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $47.76 $58.13 $91.15 76
Growth DCF $46.69 $63.43 $90.87 74
5Y Revenue Exit $42.54 $51.51 $70.24 70
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $47.76 $58.13 $91.15 76
5Y Revenue Exit $42.54 $51.51 $70.24 70
10Y Revenue Exit $43.85 $59.78 $69.59 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue $39.46 $43.65 $47.84 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $38.25 $51.25 $76.50 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $46.69 $63.43 $90.87 74
Rev-Margin DCF $43.86 $54.66 $77.29 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−45.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.7%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−17.1% (2020) → −22.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

BNTX screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −56% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −64% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −60% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.22× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 8.88× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 87.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.05× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.63 $566.09 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $774.11 $1,241 +60%
argenx SE ARGX $984.69 $917.18 −7%
BeOne Medicines AG 688235 ¥247.30 ¥124.62 −50%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,396,000 KRW 1,535,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$174.41 A$191.85 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $238.27 $211.88 −11%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.47 $24.22 −59%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 180,300 KRW 74,519 KRW −59%
Incyte Corporation INCY $124.75 $204.93 +64%

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BioNTech SE · Fair Value
$62.63 −56%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BioNTech SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BNTX

Frequently asked questions

Is BioNTech SE (BNTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $62.63 versus a price of $98.00, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BNTX?
Our model-based fair value for BioNTech SE is $62.63 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $98.00.
What is the quality score of BNTX?
BioNTech SE has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $62.63 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $49.46, optimistic scenario $78.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BioNTech SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $62.63, about −36% upside versus a price of $98.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $49.46, optimistic scenario $78.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
BioNTech SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BioNTech SE would have to grow free cash flow by +18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +41.7 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BNTX use?
Our models discount BioNTech SE at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BioNTech SE that is +18.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BioNTech SE (BNTX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BioNTech SE grew +41.7 % a year. The price currently implies +18.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BioNTech SE (BNTX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BioNTech SE (+18.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.16 %: that much free cash flow BioNTech SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BioNTech SE it is $62.63 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $98.00. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BioNTech SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, BNTX trades above its calculated fair value: price $98.00, fair value $62.63, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BNTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($98.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($62.63). For BioNTech SE the two are $35.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BioNTech SE worth?
The market values BioNTech SE at about $23.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $98.00; our models calculate a fair value of $62.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BNTX?
Our models span a range for BioNTech SE: cautious scenario $49.46, base $62.63, optimistic $78.89 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $98.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of BNTX?
The PEG ratio of BioNTech SE is 0.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for BioNTech SE (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity −9.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BNTX from its 52-week high?
BioNTech SE trades at $98.00, about 21% below its 52-week high of $124.00 and 23% above the low of $79.52 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $62.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BioNTech SE?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, BeOne Medicines AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BioNTech SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $98.00, calculated fair value $62.63 (−36%), Quality Score 53/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BNTX calculated?
We run BioNTech SE through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $62.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. BioNTech SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $98.00. Our model-based fair value is $62.63, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BioNTech SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($78.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of BioNTech SE

How large is the market capitalisation of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The market capitalisation of BioNTech SE is $23.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BioNTech SE is 8.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Earnings per share at BioNTech SE are $−7.76. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The net margin of BioNTech SE is −39.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BioNTech SE is −9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BioNTech SE is 29.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
The operating margin of BioNTech SE is −807% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Revenue at BioNTech SE is growing −59.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −45.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BioNTech SE (BNTX)?
Earnings per share at BioNTech SE are growing −43.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does BioNTech SE (BNTX) hold?
BioNTech SE holds more cash than debt, $7.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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