HitGen Inc. A (688222) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HitGen Inc. A stock ¥12.02, price ¥36.45, upside -67.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?Yes
In an uptrend?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.40 – ¥46.02 · fair‑value band ¥8.66 – ¥16.66 · the ¥36.45 price screens above the ¥12.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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HitGen Inc. operates as a drug discovery research platform for small molecules and nucleic acid drugs in China and internationally.
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Its technology platform includes DNA-encoded library technology; fragment-based drug discovery and structure-based drug design technologies; emerging technology platforms for synthetic therapeutic oligonucleotide technology; and targeted protein degradation technology.
The company's product pipeline also includes HG146, a selective HDAC inhibitor for multiple myeloma and solid tumor; HG030, a second generation NTRK/ROS1 inhibitor tablet for solid tumor; HG153 a Menin-MLL tablet; HG248; HG 381, an immune-oncology agonist for cancer, as well as HGP0508, a small molecule for anti-inflammatory therapeutics for inflammation; and HGP1069, a ROCK2 inhibitor eye drop.
In addition, it offers target validation, hit identification, hit-to-lead optimization, lead optimization, preclinical studies and IND, clinical development, and integrated drug discovery services.
Further, the company focuses on oncology and immuno-oncology, inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, ophthalmology, infectious, metabolic, and cardiovascular diseases. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
HitGen Inc. A (688222) currently trades at ¥36.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.02, 67.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥6.41 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥36.45 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.31, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥8.66 (bear) to ¥16.66 (bull), the price of ¥36.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
HitGen Inc. A reported revenue of 526M CNY in FY2025 versus 311M CNY in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was 110M CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 14.6B CNY (≈ $2.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 104.1 · P/S ratio 22.7 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3500 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 21.7% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −67%, 688222 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥1.31 to ¥14.66). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥8.66Fair Value ¥12.02Bull¥16.66
Price ¥36.45 · Upside -67.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1820 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 25%
2025 sits 169% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+60.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +57.3% a year for the price and +20.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 598 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−67.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)21.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)54.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)104.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.73× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)22.66× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow261.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA70.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)37· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HitGen Inc. A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688222
Frequently asked questions
Is HitGen Inc. A (688222) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥12.02 versus a price of ¥36.45, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688222?
Our model-based fair value for HitGen Inc. A is ¥12.02 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥36.45.
What is the quality score of 688222?
HitGen Inc. A has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥12.02 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.66, optimistic scenario ¥16.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HitGen Inc. A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥12.02, about −67% upside versus a price of ¥36.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.66, optimistic scenario ¥16.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
HitGen Inc. A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 645M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does HitGen Inc. A pay a dividend?
HitGen Inc. A currently shows a dividend yield of 0.36% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HitGen Inc. A would have to grow free cash flow by +60.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688222 use?
Our models discount HitGen Inc. A at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HitGen Inc. A that is +60.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HitGen Inc. A (688222) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HitGen Inc. A grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies +60.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HitGen Inc. A (688222) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HitGen Inc. A (+60.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.38 %: that much free cash flow HitGen Inc. A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HitGen Inc. A it is ¥12.02 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of ¥36.45. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HitGen Inc. A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 688222 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥36.45, fair value ¥12.02, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688222?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥36.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥12.02). For HitGen Inc. A the two are ¥24.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HitGen Inc. A worth?
The market values HitGen Inc. A at about 14.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥36.45; our models calculate a fair value of ¥12.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688222?
Our models span a range for HitGen Inc. A: cautious scenario ¥8.66, base ¥12.02, optimistic ¥16.66 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price ¥36.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688222?
HitGen Inc. A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 104.1 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥12.02 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 148.0. Other multiples: P/B 9.7, P/S 22.7, EV/EBITDA 70.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
Balance-sheet figures for HitGen Inc. A (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688222 from its 52-week high?
HitGen Inc. A trades at ¥36.45, about 21% below its 52-week high of ¥46.02 and 71% above the low of ¥21.37 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥12.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HitGen Inc. A?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HitGen Inc. A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price ¥36.45, calculated fair value ¥12.02 (−67%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688222 calculated?
We run HitGen Inc. A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥12.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. HitGen Inc. A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was ¥36.45. Our model-based fair value is ¥12.02, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HitGen Inc. A right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥16.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (¥8.66 to ¥16.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of HitGen Inc. A
How large is the market capitalisation of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
The market capitalisation of HitGen Inc. A is 14.6B CNY (≈ $2.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HitGen Inc. A is 22.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
Earnings per share at HitGen Inc. A are ¥0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 104.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
The dividend yield of HitGen Inc. A is 0.4% (payout 37.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
The net margin of HitGen Inc. A is 21.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HitGen Inc. A is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HitGen Inc. A is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
The operating margin of HitGen Inc. A is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
Revenue at HitGen Inc. A is growing +54.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HitGen Inc. A (688222)?
Earnings per share at HitGen Inc. A are growing +97.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026