Novogene Co (688315) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CN · Market cap 5.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +17.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥5.77 to ¥10.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.05 – ¥67.54 · fair‑value band ¥5.77 – ¥10.78 · the ¥14.86 price screens above the ¥8.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Novogene Co (688315) currently trades at ¥14.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.78, implying the stock looks roughly 40.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Novogene Co generated revenue of 2.3B CNY at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 374M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.77 (bear case) to ¥10.78 (bull case); at ¥14.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -41%, 688315 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.97) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.7400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Novogene Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides genomic services and solutions in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally.
Full company description
Novogene Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides genomic services and solutions in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers genomic solutions comprising human, animal, plant, and microbial whole genome sequencing, as well as human and mouse whole exome sequencing, microbial de novo sequencing, animal and plant de novo sequencing, and 16S/18S/ITS amplicon and shotgun metagenomic sequencing; transcriptomics solutions, such as mRNA, long non-coding RNA, small RNA, circular RNA, whole transcriptome, isoform, direct RNA, prokaryotic RNA, and meta transcriptome sequencing; and single cell gene expression, single cell long road read transcriptome, and visium formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded spatial transcriptome solutions. It also provides epigenomic solutions comprising whole genome bisulfite, reduced representation bisulfite, chromatin immunoprecipitation, and RNA immunoprecipitation sequencing; premade library and proteomics services; clinical diagnostics services, such as clinical whole exome sequencing and clinical panels; biopharma services consisting of discovery and pre-clinical, translational and clinical, and companion diagnostics; and support services. In addition, the company offers sequencing platforms under the ILLUMINA, PACBIO, 10X GENOMICS, and NANOPORE brands; and basic scientific research services in life sciences, and medical research and technical services. Its services are used in cancer research, immuno-oncology agrigenomics, environment, food science, human microbiome, plant and animal microbiome, drug discovery and development, and rare and complex diseases applications. The company serves research universities, research institutes, hospitals, pharmaceutical research and development companies, and agricultural companies. Novogene Co., Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Novogene Co reported revenue of ¥2.2B in FY2025 versus ¥1.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥166M in FY2025, compounding −7.3%/yr from FY2021.
688315 screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 603 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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