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MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co €14.94, price €19.30, upside -22.6%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Defensive · DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3947800003

In Frankfurt, only 0 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.

MS Broad data Sep 30, 2026

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co

6MG · F

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €14.94 · Overvalued (−22.6%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!2.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Weak on valuation: 3 out of 100
!Weak on future: 9 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€21.00 €9.33 Fair Value €14.94 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €9.33 – €21.00 · fair‑value band €11.15 – €22.30 · the €19.30 price screens above the €14.94 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

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Company profile

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co.,Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of milk, milk products, and other food products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Dairy Products, Beverages and Desserts, and Feed Seeds segments.

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MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co.,Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of milk, milk products, and other food products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Dairy Products, Beverages and Desserts, and Feed Seeds segments. The company offers processed and natural cheese, condensed and skim milk, butter, powdered milk, and margarine; nutrition products, including infant formula and functional food; and other products. It also provides milk and milk beverages, yogurt, fruit and vegetable juice, soft drinks, and desserts; and infant formula and functional food. In addition, the company is involved in the manufacture and sale of cattle feed, and pasture forage/crop and vegetable seeds; landscaping business; and distribution center services, real estate rental, and other businesses. MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG) currently trades at €19.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.94, 22.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €49.38 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the €19.30 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €5.64, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €11.15 (bear) to €22.30 (bull), the price of €19.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co reported revenue of ¥616B in FY2026 versus ¥558B in FY2022, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥32.9B in FY2026, compounding +28.5%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €1.2B · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) €2.91 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −23%, 6MG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €11.15 Fair Value €14.94 Bull €22.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings €16.47 €21.50 €30.66 77
Residual Income €20.70 €23.71 €29.07 76
EPV €9.00 €10.48 €11.73 74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €16.47 €21.50 €30.66 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €21.13 €32.33 €38.57 67
EPV €9.00 €10.48 €11.73 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €4.95 €5.64 €6.39 69
DDM Multi-Stage €4.95 €6.16 €7.54 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €48.95 €65.26 €81.58 63
P/S Multiple €39.63 €52.83 €66.04 58
P/B Multiple €39.63 €52.83 €66.04 55
EV/EBIT €20.07 €27.41 €34.74 66
EV/EBITDA €31.11 €42.12 €53.13 67
EV/Revenue €13.77 €20.50 €27.24 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €11.23 €15.04 €22.45 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €20.70 €23.71 €29.07 76
ROIC Compounder €9.00 €10.48 €11.73 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €34.56 €49.38 €64.19 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 65
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.8% vs 11.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 164% above its own trend.

6MG screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 631 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −22.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.87× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.33× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)3 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)9 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)64 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)54 · sector 57

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 74.63 CHF 59.51 −20%
Danone S.A BN €59.12 €50.65 −14%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥33.93 ¥37.32 +10%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $23.45 $29.20 +25%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,363 ₹724.74 −47%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥26.90 ¥41.84 +56%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥24.55 ¥9.98 −59%
General Mills, Inc GIS $31.67 $34.59 +9%
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.68 SGD 5.14 SGD +40%
Kerry Group KRZ €85.55 €59.96 −30%

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€14.94 −23%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6MG

Frequently asked questions

Is MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.94 versus a price of €19.30, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6MG?
Our model-based fair value for MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is €14.94 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €19.30.
What is the quality score of 6MG?
MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €14.94 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.15, optimistic scenario €22.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €14.94, about −23% upside versus a price of €19.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €11.15, optimistic scenario €22.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥618B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co pay a dividend?
MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co it is €14.94 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €19.30. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 6MG trades above its calculated fair value: price €19.30, fair value €14.94, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6MG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€19.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€14.94). For MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co the two are €4.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co worth?
The market values MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co at about €1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €19.30; our models calculate a fair value of €14.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6MG?
Our models span a range for MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co: cautious scenario €11.15, base €14.94, optimistic €22.30 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €19.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6MG?
MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €14.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
Balance-sheet figures for MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6MG from its 52-week high?
MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co trades at €19.30, about 8% below its 52-week high of €21.00 and 28% above the low of €15.02 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €14.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €19.30, calculated fair value €14.94 (−23%), Quality Score 63/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6MG calculated?
We run MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €14.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €19.30. Our model-based fair value is €14.94, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€11.15 to €22.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co

How large is the market capitalisation of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
The market capitalisation of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is €1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is 0.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
Earnings per share at MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co are €2.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
The dividend yield of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is 2.7% (payout 17.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
The net margin of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is 5.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
The operating margin of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
Revenue at MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG)?
Earnings per share at MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co are growing +75.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG) generate?
The free cash flow of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is −¥4.5B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co (6MG) carry?
The net debt of MEGMILK SNOW BRAND Co is ¥27.7B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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