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Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd (8049) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$1.3B (≈ $164M) · ISIN CNE100000130

What is Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd really worth?

JP Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd 8049 · HK
PriceHK$2.30
Fair ValueHK$7.31
Upside+217.8%
Quality78/100

A strong business, trading 69% below our fair value of HK$7.31.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd is HK$7.31 per share against a price of HK$2.30, so the fair value sits 218% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (12/13)

Risks

!Moderate moat 63/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range HK$5.55 – HK$9.08

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +0.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (78/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$2.60 HK$0.3959 Fair Value HK$7.31 Feb 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3959 – HK$2.60 · fair‑value band HK$5.55 – HK$9.08 · the HK$2.30 price screens below the HK$7.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd (8049) currently trades at HK$2.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.31, implying the stock looks roughly 68.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$7.21 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$2.30 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.02, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$902M at a net margin of 22.1%. Revenue declined 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$143M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$5.55 (bear case) to HK$9.08 (bull case); at HK$2.30, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 218%, 8049 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.1228 per share. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$5.48 HK$8.17 HK$11.92 80
Growth DCF HK$5.48 HK$7.99 HK$11.35 78
Owner Earnings HK$3.99 HK$5.91 HK$8.58 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$5.48 HK$8.17 HK$11.92 80
Owner Earnings HK$3.99 HK$5.91 HK$8.58 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$4.26 HK$6.37 HK$9.06 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.77 HK$7.35 HK$10.38 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$5.48 HK$8.72 HK$12.19 70
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.61 HK$6.58 HK$9.24 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.00 HK$7.21 HK$10.19 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$5.41 HK$8.09 HK$11.49 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.41 HK$8.70 HK$11.73 64
Lynch FV HK$2.06 HK$2.94 HK$3.82 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$2.06 HK$2.94 HK$3.82 57
EPV HK$2.37 HK$2.66 HK$2.91 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.64 HK$2.96 HK$4.08 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.64 HK$2.71 HK$3.17 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.86 HK$7.81 HK$9.76 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.23 HK$5.63 HK$7.04 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.53 HK$6.03 HK$7.54 55
EV/EBIT HK$5.13 HK$6.76 HK$8.39 66
EV/EBITDA HK$4.80 HK$6.32 HK$7.83 67
EV/Revenue HK$3.63 HK$5.08 HK$6.52 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.51 HK$2.02 HK$3.01 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$5.48 HK$7.99 HK$11.35 78
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.26 HK$6.41 HK$8.99 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.63 HK$2.93 HK$4.13 76
ROIC Compounder HK$2.37 HK$2.66 HK$2.91 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.03 HK$5.76 HK$7.48 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$7.21) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.02). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.6 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.24 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.1800 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6
Dividend yield 9.2% payout 118%
Net margin 22.1% FY2025
Return on equity 12.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 19.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$902M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −5.1% 3y avg +2.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +19.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$301M FY2025
Net cash HK$143M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 78/100

Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Company Limited manufactures and distributes Chinese medicines and pharmaceutical products under the Changlong and Qing Tong brands in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Company Limited manufactures and distributes Chinese medicines and pharmaceutical products under the Changlong and Qing Tong brands in the People's Republic of China. The company provides Edaravone injection, compound brain comfort capsules, haikun kidney capsules, cefpirome sulfate for injections, Cefpiramide for injections, anti-bone hyperplasia tablets, Lysine zinc gluconate tablets, and Qianlie Guihuang Tablets. It also engages in the manufacture and distribution of beverages and prepackaged food, as well as health products. The company was formerly known as Jilin Province Huinan Biochemical Pharmaceutical Company Limited. Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Company Limited was founded in 1989 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd reported revenue of 902M CNY in FY2025 versus 705M CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 199M CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$902M
Latest YoY
+2.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+16.0% · in HKD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+6.8%
Dividend yield9.2%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 6.8% vs 10Y 4.1%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24.2% (2020) → 23.8% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop22% (2020) · in HKD
Revenue +6.3%/yr
FY21 705M CNY
FY22 842M CNY
FY23 842M CNY
FY24 881M CNY
FY25 902M CNY
Net income +8.5%/yr
FY21 143M CNY
FY22 194M CNY
FY23 148M CNY
FY24 184M CNY
FY25 199M CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.3 %

of which total revenue +4.3 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −1.0 %
Tax rate −0.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8049.HK

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 609 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.76× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.43× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 3
FUTURE0 · sector 22
PAST48 · sector 25
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND100 · sector 29

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €140.25 €106.48 −24%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.03 $11.11 −38%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥53.76 ¥25.94 −52%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,899 ₹989.50 −48%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 178.55 CHF 55.07 −69%
Haleon plc HLN $10.11 $7.64 −24%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $36.05 $15.33 −57%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.66 CHF 39.21 −45%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $77.10 $104.88 +36%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$35.12 HK$16.18 −54%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd (8049) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.31 versus a price of HK$2.30, about +218% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8049?
Our model-based fair value for Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd is HK$7.31 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.30.
What is the quality score of 8049?
Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd (8049)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.31 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.55, optimistic scenario HK$9.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.31, about +218% upside versus a price of HK$2.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.55, optimistic scenario HK$9.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd (8049)?
Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$902M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 8049?
The net profit margin of Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd is about 22.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 22.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Jilin Province Huinan Changlong Bio-pharmacy Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.20% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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