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ADICON Holdings Ltd (9860) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$3.0B

AH ADICON Holdings Ltd 9860 · HK
PriceHK$3.48
Fair ValueHK$0.6600
Upside-81.0%
Quality43/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 22/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.3800 – HK$0.8200 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −11.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 81% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.8200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$0.3800 to HK$0.8200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

HK$18.12 HK$3.17 Fair Value HK$0.6600 Jun 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

37‑month range HK$3.17 – HK$18.12 · fair‑value band HK$0.3800 – HK$0.8200 · the HK$3.48 price screens above the HK$0.6600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

ADICON Holdings Ltd (9860) currently trades at HK$3.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6600, implying the stock looks roughly 81.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, ADICON Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.6B at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue declined 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at HK$1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3800 (bear case) to HK$0.8200 (bull case); at HK$3.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -81%, 9860 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.8400 HK$1.37 HK$2.26 80
Residual Income HK$1.63 HK$1.53 HK$1.10 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5600 HK$1.15 HK$1.88 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.7700 HK$1.33 HK$2.32 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.4800 HK$0.9300 HK$1.74 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5600 HK$1.12 HK$1.92 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.01 HK$3.62 HK$5.75 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.0800 HK$0.2800 HK$0.5200 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6000 HK$1.02 HK$1.46 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.49 HK$2.53 HK$3.65 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.3500 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6600 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1700 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2400 54
EPV HK$0.2600 HK$0.4200 HK$0.5600 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$10.58 HK$11.53 HK$12.97 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$10.58 HK$13.08 HK$16.48 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.4200 HK$0.5700 HK$0.7100 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.3300 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.3300 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.04 HK$1.64 HK$2.23 53
EV/EBITDA HK$3.43 HK$4.82 HK$6.21 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.5300 HK$1.08 HK$1.62 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.20 HK$1.61 HK$2.40 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.8400 HK$1.37 HK$2.26 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.5600 HK$1.15 HK$1.88 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.63 HK$1.53 HK$1.10 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.2600 HK$0.4200 HK$0.5600 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.3000 HK$0.4300 HK$0.5500 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$11.53) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.6%
Net margin 0.7%
Return on equity 1.3%
Free cash flow HK$117M FY2025
P/E ratio 138.7 as of Jul 3, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 6.4%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0400
EPS growth (YoY) -72.5%
Net debt HK$1.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Adicon Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides medical testing services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers testing services primarily to hospitals and health check centers through an integrated network of self-operated laboratories; and research and clinical trial services.

Full company description

Adicon Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides medical testing services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers testing services primarily to hospitals and health check centers through an integrated network of self-operated laboratories; and research and clinical trial services. It is also involved in the trading of medical testing equipment. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ADICON Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.6B in FY2025 versus HK$3.4B in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$18.4M in FY2025, compounding −50.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.6B
Latest YoY
−9.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−18.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.8%
Revenue −6.0%/yr
FY21 HK$3.4B
FY22 HK$4.9B
FY23 HK$3.3B
FY24 HK$2.9B
FY25 HK$2.6B
Net income −50.8%/yr
FY21 HK$316M
FY22 HK$681M
FY23 HK$235M
FY24 HK$47.0M
FY25 HK$18.4M

9860 screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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ADICON Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.6600 −81%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ADICON Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9860

Peer Group

Diagnostics & Research · 135 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −81% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth -6% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.41× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 138.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.74× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.13× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.42× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 25
PAST 5 · sector 11
HEALTH 80 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO $603.01 $308.19 -49%
Danaher Corporation DHR $205.79 $103.88 -50%
WuXi AppTec Co 2359 HK$198.90 HK$157.39 -21%
Lonza Group LONN CHF 566.20 CHF 259.80 -54%
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX $570.58 $255.77 -55%
Agilent Technologies, Inc A $148.24 $61.53 -58%
Waters Corporation WAT $416.15 $121.96 -71%
IQVIA Holdings IQV $243.84 $132.17 -46%
Illumina, Inc ILMN $192.91 $95.51 -50%
Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD $1,437 $615.78 -57%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ADICON Holdings Ltd (9860) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6600 versus a price of HK$3.48, about −81% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9860?
Our model-based fair value for ADICON Holdings Ltd is HK$0.6600 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$3.48.
What is the quality score of 9860?
ADICON Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ADICON Holdings Ltd (9860)?
ADICON Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9860?
The net profit margin of ADICON Holdings Ltd is about 0.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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