Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc $0.52, price $0.57, upside -8.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2810 – $11.25 · fair‑value band $0.1887 – $0.5202 · the $0.5651 price screens above the $0.5202 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. engages in the cultivation, manufacture, and distribution of cannabis consumer packaged goods in the United States.
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Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. engages in the cultivation, manufacture, and distribution of cannabis consumer packaged goods in the United States. The company offers flower, pre-rolls, concentrates, vapes, edibles, tablets, and other cannabis-related products under the Common Goods, SimplyHerb, Ozone, Royale, High Wired, Effin', Miss Grass, Lowell Smokes, Flower by Edie Parker, 1906, AiroPro, and Miss Grass brands. It also owns, operates, and manages cannabis cultivation facilities and dispensaries. The company sells its products through company-owned retail stores, and third-party licensed retail cannabis stores. The company was formerly known as Ascend Wellness Holdings, LLC and changed its name to Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. in April 2021. Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Rochelle Park, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH) currently trades at $0.5651, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5202, implying the stock looks roughly 8.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $4.15 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $0.5651 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $2.30, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1887 (bear) to $0.5202 (bull), the price of $0.5651 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc reported revenue of $501M in FY2025 versus $332M in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$118M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $114M · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6400 · Net margin −23.6% · Return on equity −939% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6% · Operating margin 2.1% · Revenue (TTM) $490M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −8%, AAWH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1887Fair Value $0.5202Bull $0.5202
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+86.1%
’19
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.7% (2020) → −0.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−26% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1,218.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.9× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)23· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 32
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5202 versus a price of $0.5651, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AAWH?
Our model-based fair value for Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is $0.5202 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5651.
What is the quality score of AAWH?
Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5202 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1887, optimistic scenario $0.5202. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5202, about −8% upside versus a price of $0.5651 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.1887, optimistic scenario $0.5202. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $490M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc it is $0.5202 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.5651. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AAWH trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.5651, fair value $0.5202, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAWH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5651); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5202). For Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc the two are $0.0449 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc at about $114M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.5651; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5202 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAWH?
Our models span a range for Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $0.1887, base $0.5202, optimistic $0.5202 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.5651). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAWH from its 52-week high?
Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc trades at $0.5651, about 48% below its 52-week high of $1.08 and 49% above the low of $0.3780 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5202 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.5651, calculated fair value $0.5202 (−8%), Quality Score 37/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAWH calculated?
We run Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5202, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $0.5651. Our model-based fair value is $0.5202, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5202). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($0.1887 to $0.5202). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
The market capitalisation of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is $114M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is 0.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
Earnings per share at Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc are $−0.6400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
The net margin of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is −23.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is −939% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
The operating margin of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH)?
Revenue at Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is growing −8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH) generate?
The free cash flow of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is $94.0K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc (AAWH) carry?
The net debt of Ascend Wellness Holdings Inc is $219M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026