Ascend Wellness Holdings (AAWH) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $108M
Ascend Wellness Holdings
AAWH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −8.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 28% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($0.3558 to $0.6848) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $0.3558 (bear) to $0.6848 (bull), base $0.5203. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 37/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2810 – $11.25 · fair‑value band $0.3558 – $0.6848 · the $0.4050 price screens below the $0.5203 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Ascend Wellness Holdings (AAWH) currently trades at $0.4050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5203, implying the stock looks roughly 28.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ascend Wellness Holdings generated revenue of $490M at a net margin of -26.2%. Revenue declined 8.6% year over year. Net debt stands at $219M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.3558 (bear case) to $0.6848 (bull case); at $0.4050, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 28%, AAWH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($4.15) versus DCF Models ($3.58). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. engages in the cultivation, manufacture, and distribution of cannabis consumer packaged goods in the United States.
Full company description
Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. engages in the cultivation, manufacture, and distribution of cannabis consumer packaged goods in the United States. The company offers flower, pre-rolls, concentrates, vapes, edibles, tablets, and other cannabis-related products under the Common Goods, SimplyHerb, Ozone, Royale, High Wired, Effin', Miss Grass, Lowell Smokes, Flower by Edie Parker, 1906, AiroPro, and Miss Grass brands. It also owns, operates, and manages cannabis cultivation facilities and dispensaries. The company sells its products through company-owned retail stores, and third-party licensed retail cannabis stores. The company was formerly known as Ascend Wellness Holdings, LLC and changed its name to Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. in April 2021. Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Rochelle Park, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ascend Wellness Holdings reported revenue of $501M in FY2025 versus $332M in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$118M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 624 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.19 | ¥25.94 | -51% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,933 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹7,316 | ₹1,943 | -73% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,763 | ₹1,329 | -72% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,285 TWD | 221.01 TWD | -83% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,439 | ₹1,001 | -30% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,151 | ₹703.32 | -39% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,443 | ₹2,477 | +1% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,484 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,211 | ₹874.79 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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