Associated British Foods plc (ABF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · GB · Market cap 14.4B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +7.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 50% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£21.16). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (£21.16 to £38.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £10.57 – £24.47 · fair‑value band £21.16 – £38.45 · the £20.52 price screens below the £30.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Associated British Foods plc (ABF) currently trades at £20.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £30.76, implying the stock looks roughly 49.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Associated British Foods plc generated revenue of £19.4B at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 1.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.5%. Net debt stands at £2.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £21.16 (bear case) to £38.45 (bull case); at £20.52, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 50%, ABF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£29.64) versus Earnings-Based (£7.66). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Associated British Foods plc engages in the food, ingredients, and retail businesses worldwide. It operates through five segments: Retail, Grocery, Ingredients, Sugar, and Agriculture.
Full company description
Associated British Foods plc engages in the food, ingredients, and retail businesses worldwide. It operates through five segments: Retail, Grocery, Ingredients, Sugar, and Agriculture. The Retail segment is involved in buying and merchandising clothing and accessories through the Primark and Penneys retail chains, which offer women's, men's, and kidswear, as well as beauty, homeware, and accessories. The Grocery segment manufactures grocery products, including hot beverages, sugar, vegetable oils, balsamic vinegars, bread and baked goods, cereals, ethnic food and meat products to retail, wholesale, and foodservice businesses. The Ingredients segment manufactures yeast and bakery ingredients, specialty ingredients focused on enzymes, procession extracts, health and nutrition, and pharmaceutical delivery systems. The Sugar segment is involved in growing and processing sugar beet and sugar cane. The Agriculture segment manufactures specialty feed ingredients, premix, and compound animal feed; and other products and services for the agriculture sector. The company was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Associated British Foods plc operates as a subsidiary of Wittington Investments Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Associated British Foods plc reported revenue of £19.5B in FY2025 versus £13.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was £1.0B in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ABF renames UK bread arm after clinching Hovis deal
- Sugar woes sour ABF shares
- UK watchdog clears ABF’s deal to buy bread rival Hovis
- ABF’s Hovis takeover deal given go-ahead by competition watchdog
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 650 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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