Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Agricultural Bank of China Limited $1.58, price $0.79, upside +100.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1498 – $0.8000 · fair‑value band $1.11 – $1.97 · the $0.7900 price screens below the $1.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments.
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Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans and advances, trade finance, deposit products, corporate wealth management services, and other corporate intermediary services. The Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit products, card business, and other personal intermediary services. The Treasury Operations segment conducts money market and repurchase transactions, debt instruments investments, precious metals transactions, and derivative transactions. It offers asset and fund management, financial leasing, life insurance, and investment banking services. It also provides inclusive finance, green finance, pension finance, digital and online financial services, and cross-border financial solutions, as well as services for rural revitalization. In addition, it provides demand, personal call, foreign currency call and time, time or demand optional, savings, agreed-term, and negotiated deposit accounts; certificates of deposit; and loans, including housing, consumer, personal auto, business, fixed asset, working capital, real estate, bonds, commercial drafts, entrusted syndicated loans, trade finances, guarantees and commitments, and loans with custody of export rebates accounts. In addition, it offers credit and debit cards, payment and settlement, private banking, cash management, custody, financial market, financial institution services, and trading. Further, it offers agro-related personal and corporate banking products and services; telephone, mobile, self-service, and SMS banking services; asset custodian services; and reinsurance. The company operates domestic and overseas branches, and representative offices. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF) currently trades at $0.7900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.58, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $1.60 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $0.7900 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.8700, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.11 (bear) to $1.97 (bull), the price of $0.7900 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Agricultural Bank of China Limited reported revenue of 1.4T CNY in FY2025 versus 556B CNY in FY2021, a compound +25.0%/yr. Reported net income was 291B CNY in FY2025, compounding +4.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $295B · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 1.32 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 21.5% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 100%, ACGBF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.11Fair Value $1.58Bull $1.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+133.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.7% vs 3.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 24%
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Agricultural Bank of China Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACGBF
Frequently asked questions
Is Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.58 versus a price of $0.7900, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ACGBF?
Our model-based fair value for Agricultural Bank of China Limited is $1.58 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.7900.
What is the quality score of ACGBF?
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.58 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.11, optimistic scenario $1.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Agricultural Bank of China Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.58, about +100% upside versus a price of $0.7900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.11, optimistic scenario $1.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
Agricultural Bank of China Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 601B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Agricultural Bank of China Limited pay a dividend?
Agricultural Bank of China Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Agricultural Bank of China Limited it is $1.58 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $0.7900. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Agricultural Bank of China Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, ACGBF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.7900, fair value $1.58, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACGBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.7900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.58). For Agricultural Bank of China Limited the two are $0.7900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Agricultural Bank of China Limited worth?
The market values Agricultural Bank of China Limited at about $295B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $0.7900; our models calculate a fair value of $1.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACGBF?
Our models span a range for Agricultural Bank of China Limited: cautious scenario $1.11, base $1.58, optimistic $1.97 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $0.7900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ACGBF from its 52-week high?
Agricultural Bank of China Limited trades at $0.7900, about 1% below its 52-week high of $0.8000 and 32% above the low of $0.5993 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Agricultural Bank of China Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Agricultural Bank of China Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $0.7900, calculated fair value $1.58 (+100%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACGBF calculated?
We run Agricultural Bank of China Limited through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Agricultural Bank of China Limited currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.7900. Our model-based fair value is $1.58, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Agricultural Bank of China Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF) come from?
Earnings per share at Agricultural Bank of China Limited grew +4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Agricultural Bank of China Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
The market capitalisation of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is $295B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is 6.2 (as of Jun 18, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is 1.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
Earnings per share at Agricultural Bank of China Limited are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
The dividend yield of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is 4.9% (payout 32.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
The net margin of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is 21.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
The operating margin of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is 59.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
Revenue at Agricultural Bank of China Limited is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF)?
Earnings per share at Agricultural Bank of China Limited are growing +5.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF) generate?
The free cash flow of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is 2.1T CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Agricultural Bank of China Limited (ACGBF) hold?
Agricultural Bank of China Limited holds more cash than debt, 396B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 28, 2026