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Banco Santander S.A. (SAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Banco Santander S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · ES · ISIN ES0113900J37

Broad data Sep 17, 2026

Banco Santander S.A.

SAN · MC

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €8.02 · Strongly overvalued (−37%)

!Quality 60/100

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +14.7 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 34.1% net margin (TTM)

!High debt · generates free cash flow

·1.77% dividend yield

!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)

✓Wide moat 68/100

!Insider activity 30/100

!Weak on future: 23 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear €6.66 to bull €13.24 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 60/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €2.02 – €12.95 · fair‑value band €6.66 – €13.24 · the €12.74 price screens above the €8.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Banco Santander, S.A. provides various financial products and services to individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, large corporations, and public entities worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Retail & Commercial Banking, Digital Consumer Bank, Corporate & Investment Banking, Wealth Management & Insurance, and Payments. It offers demand and time deposits, mutual funds, and current and savings accounts; mortgages, consumer finance, loans, and various financing solutions; and project finance, debt capital markets, global transaction banking, and corporate finance services. The company also provides credit and debit cards, real estate loans, microfinance, and auto loans; corporate and investment banking services; advice on mergers and acquisitions; wealth, asset, and risk management services; and digital payments and technology solutions. In addition, it is involved in the securitization, leasing, management of portfolios, e-commerce, air transport, aircraft rental, software, consulting, fund and investment management, renewable energy, vehicle rental, insurance, advertising, marketing, telemarketing, automotive, agricultural, factoring, securities brokerage and investment, pension fund management, trade intermediary, venture capital fund, renting, restaurant, electricity production, IT, internet, and financial advisory and other activities; management, and other real estate activities; and purchase and sale of vehicles. Further, the company offers mobile and online banking services. Banco Santander, S.A. was formerly known as Banco Santander Central Hispano SA and changed its name to Banco Santander, S.A. in February 2007. The company was incorporated in 1856 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

Stock analysis

Banco Santander S.A. (SAN) currently trades at €12.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.02, implying the stock looks roughly 58.9% overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €10.08 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €12.74 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €3.75, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €6.66 (bear) to €13.24 (bull), the price of €12.74 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Banco Santander S.A. reported revenue of €120B in FY2025 versus €39.0B in FY2021, a compound +32.4%/yr. Reported net income was €14.1B in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €189B · P/E ratio 14.5 · P/S ratio 1.70 · EPS (TTM) €0.8800 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −37%, SAN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €6.66 Fair Value €8.02 Bull €13.24

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4755 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income €6.96 €8.82 €22.38 68

Gordon GGM €2.14 €4.45 €7.06 66

DDM Multi-Stage €2.14 €3.75 €4.67 66

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM €2.14 €4.45 €7.06 66

DDM Multi-Stage €2.14 €3.75 €4.67 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple €9.60 €12.79 €15.99 63

P/B Multiple €7.56 €10.08 €12.60 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) €3.60 €4.82 €7.20 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income €6.96 €8.82 €22.38 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 27

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 44

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 99

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 27

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 82

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 67

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 76

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 94

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+136.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+41.9%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+14.7%

Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.0%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.

+17.7%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+15.9%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 8%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 16%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

less than -40 %

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

−7.1%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

Forecast 2026 (sales)−47.3%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.2%

Projected 2028 (sales)+7.5%

Projected 2029 (sales)+6.7%

Projected 2030 (sales)+5.9%

SAN screens 59% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −18% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median

Return on assets 1% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 34% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 43% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 5% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 3.14× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.5× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.94× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 4.23× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 2.6× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 19.3× · Pricier than median

PEG 3.82× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 3

FUTURE (revenue growth)23 · sector 25

PAST (return on equity)52 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 48

DIVIDEND (yield)35 · sector 71

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM	$352.49	$192.16	−45%
Bank of America Corporation BAC	$59.52	$41.70	−30%
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939	¥10.85	¥13.69	+26%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398	¥8.11	¥10.93	+35%
HSBC Holdings HSBC	$101.83	$75.89	−25%
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288	¥6.88	¥12.94	+88%
Royal Bank of Canada RY	C$284.45	C$151.80	−47%
Bank of China Limited 601988	¥6.56	¥9.86	+50%
Wells Fargo & Company WFC	$89.72	$66.02	−26%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG	$23.71	$20.35	−14%

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Banco Santander S.A. · Fair Value
€8.02 −59%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAN" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Banco Santander S.A. · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">€8.02</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−59%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banco Santander S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAN

Frequently asked questions

Is Banco Santander S.A. (SAN) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.02 versus a price of €12.74, about −37% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of SAN?

Our model-based fair value for Banco Santander S.A. is €8.02 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €12.74.

What is the quality score of SAN?

Banco Santander S.A. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.02 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.66, optimistic scenario €13.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Banco Santander S.A. stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at €8.02, about −37% upside versus a price of €12.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €6.66, optimistic scenario €13.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

Banco Santander S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €47.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).

Does Banco Santander S.A. pay a dividend?

Banco Santander S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).

What growth is priced into Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Banco Santander S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.7 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAN use?

Our models discount Banco Santander S.A. at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Banco Santander S.A. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Banco Santander S.A. (SAN) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Banco Santander S.A. grew +14.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Banco Santander S.A. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 41.00 %: that much free cash flow Banco Santander S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco Santander S.A. it is €8.02 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of €12.74. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Banco Santander S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 17, 2026, SAN trades above its calculated fair value: price €12.74, fair value €8.02, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of SAN?

No. The price is what the market pays today (€12.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.02). For Banco Santander S.A. the two are €4.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Banco Santander S.A. worth?

The market values Banco Santander S.A. at about €189B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is €12.74; our models calculate a fair value of €8.02 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAN?

Our models span a range for Banco Santander S.A.: cautious scenario €6.66, base €8.02, optimistic €13.24 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price €12.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of SAN?

Banco Santander S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.8, P/B 1.9, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 19.3.

What is the PEG ratio of SAN?

The PEG ratio of Banco Santander S.A. is 3.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

Balance-sheet figures for Banco Santander S.A. (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 3.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is SAN from its 52-week high?

Banco Santander S.A. trades at €12.74, about 15% below its 52-week high of €11.13 and 92% above the low of €6.62 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.02 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Banco Santander S.A.?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corporation, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Banco Santander S.A. stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price €12.74, calculated fair value €8.02 (−37%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of SAN calculated?

We run Banco Santander S.A. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €8.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Banco Santander S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €12.74. Our model-based fair value is €8.02, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Banco Santander S.A. right now?

Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€6.66 to €13.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN) come from?

Earnings per share at Banco Santander S.A. grew +7.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin −11.7 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +15.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Banco Santander S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

The market capitalisation of Banco Santander S.A. is €189B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Banco Santander S.A. is 1.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

Earnings per share at Banco Santander S.A. are €0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

The dividend yield of Banco Santander S.A. is 1.8% (payout 25.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

The net margin of Banco Santander S.A. is 11.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Banco Santander S.A. is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco Santander S.A. is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

The operating margin of Banco Santander S.A. is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

Revenue at Banco Santander S.A. is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)?

Earnings per share at Banco Santander S.A. are growing +67.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Banco Santander S.A. (SAN) carry?

The net debt of Banco Santander S.A. is €368B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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