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Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Adrian Resources Ltd $18.33, price $18.53, upside -1.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US

AR Adrian Resources Ltd logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Adrian Resources Ltd

ADLRF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $18.33 · Fairly valued (−1.1%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +16.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 90.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!7.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (10/13)
✓Wide moat 67/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.56 $6.85 Fair Value $18.33 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.85 – $18.56 · fair‑value band $13.12 – $22.91 · the $18.53 price screens above the $18.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust is a private equity firm specializing in management buyouts, growth capital, lower & middle market, later stage, industry consolidation, growth capital, and mature investments. The firm does not invest in turnarounds and start-ups.

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Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust is a private equity firm specializing in management buyouts, growth capital, lower & middle market, later stage, industry consolidation, growth capital, and mature investments. The firm does not invest in turnarounds and start-ups. It prefers to invest in the companies based in all industries except for those with a declining asset base, such as oil and gas resource companies, or any industry that carry the risk of obsolescence such as high tech and focuses on business services, professional services, information services, healthcare services, distribution & logistics, industrials, consulting services, consumer products and construction related services. The firm seeks to invest in companies raising capital for a partial liquidity, generational transfer, recapitalization, and growth and who do not want to give up control or chance the added risk that comes with high leverage levels. It prefers to invest in companies that are mostly individual or family controlled. The firm typically provides alternative financing for a diversified group of private businesses (Private Company Partners) in exchange for royalties or distributions from the Private Company Partners, with the principal objective of generating stable and predictable cash flows for dividend payments to its shareholders. It seeks to invest in the companies based in Canada, and The United States. It typically invests between $30 million and $150 million in companies with an enterprise values between $10 million and $400 million and EBITDA between $5 million and $50 million, historical EBITDA in excess of $10 million, and Low levels of debt and capital expenditure. The firm also makes small cap investments up to $20 million in private companies that have historical EBITDA in excess of $2 million. However, for larger companies, transactions can be structured to include additional investments. The firm seeks to invest in industries that do not experience large cyclical swings. It does not own any shares and does not require

Stock analysis

Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF) currently trades at $18.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.33, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.1%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $23.83 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $18.53 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.63, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $13.12 (bear) to $22.91 (bull), the price of $18.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Adrian Resources Ltd reported revenue of C$177M in FY2025 versus C$158M in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was C$90.8M in FY2025, compounding −10.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $846M · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 4.00 · EPS (TTM) $2.38 · Dividend yield 7.9% · Net margin 51.4% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −1%, ADLRF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.12 Fair Value $18.33 Bull $22.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6881 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $13.64 $14.26 $15.77 76
Graham-Dodd $9.53 $37.31 $50.63 64
P/E Multiple $17.87 $23.83 $29.79 63
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.53 $37.31 $50.63 64
Lynch FV $9.18 $13.12 $17.06 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $17.87 $23.83 $29.79 63
P/B Multiple $17.87 $23.83 $29.79 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.68 $11.63 $17.35 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $13.64 $14.26 $15.77 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.72% → 86%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 661 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −1.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14.9% · Above median
Return on assets 7.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 90.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 78.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 24.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.23× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.75× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.54× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)32 · sector 57
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)60 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 82

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Blackstone Inc BX $118.42 $52.29 −56%
KKR & Co KKR $96.67 $29.26 −70%
Brookfield Corporation BN $36.87 $13.45 −64%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $121.69 $197.23 +62%
State Street Corporation STT $181.34 $139.37 −23%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $493.00 $595.40 +21%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $122.01 $103.68 −15%
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $175.73 $123.42 −30%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $161.16 $317.27 +97%
Exor N.V EXO €70.55 €139.37 +98%

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Adrian Resources Ltd · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adrian Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADLRF

Frequently asked questions

Is Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.33 versus a price of $18.53, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ADLRF?
Our model-based fair value for Adrian Resources Ltd is $18.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.53.
What is the quality score of ADLRF?
Adrian Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.12, optimistic scenario $22.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adrian Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.33, about −1% upside versus a price of $18.53 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $13.12, optimistic scenario $22.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
Adrian Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $186M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Adrian Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Adrian Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adrian Resources Ltd it is $18.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $18.53. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adrian Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ADLRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.53, fair value $18.33, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADLRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.33). For Adrian Resources Ltd the two are $0.1988 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adrian Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Adrian Resources Ltd at about $846M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $18.53; our models calculate a fair value of $18.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADLRF?
Our models span a range for Adrian Resources Ltd: cautious scenario $13.12, base $18.33, optimistic $22.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $18.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADLRF?
Adrian Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adrian Resources Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADLRF from its 52-week high?
Adrian Resources Ltd trades at $18.53, at its 52-week high of $18.56 and 51% above the low of $12.28 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adrian Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adrian Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $18.53, calculated fair value $18.33 (−1%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADLRF calculated?
We run Adrian Resources Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Adrian Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $18.53. Our model-based fair value is $18.33, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adrian Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Adrian Resources Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
The market capitalisation of Adrian Resources Ltd is $846M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adrian Resources Ltd is 4.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
Earnings per share at Adrian Resources Ltd are $2.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
The dividend yield of Adrian Resources Ltd is 7.9% (payout 61.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
The net margin of Adrian Resources Ltd is 51.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adrian Resources Ltd is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adrian Resources Ltd is 11.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
The operating margin of Adrian Resources Ltd is 78.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
Revenue at Adrian Resources Ltd is growing +24.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF)?
Earnings per share at Adrian Resources Ltd are growing +61.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Adrian Resources Ltd is −$125M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Adrian Resources Ltd (ADLRF) carry?
The net debt of Adrian Resources Ltd is $257M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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