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African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 16, 2026: fair value of African Rainbow Minerals Limited $1.72, price $11.07, upside -84.5%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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AR
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
African Rainbow Minerals Limited
AFBOF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $1.72 · Strongly overvalued (−84.5%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.70 – $15.00 · fair‑value band $1.29 – $2.15 · the $11.07 price screens above the $1.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
African Rainbow Minerals Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a diversified mining and minerals company in South Africa, Malaysia, and Switzerland. It explores for platinum group metals, nickel, coal, iron ore, copper, manganese ore, and chrome, as well as gold deposits.
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African Rainbow Minerals Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a diversified mining and minerals company in South Africa, Malaysia, and Switzerland. It explores for platinum group metals, nickel, coal, iron ore, copper, manganese ore, and chrome, as well as gold deposits. African Rainbow Minerals Limited was incorporated in 1933 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF) currently trades at $11.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.72, 84.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $11.20 per share, and 1 of the 10 models we run sit above the $11.07 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.3400, and 9 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.29 (bear) to $2.15 (bull), the price of $11.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
African Rainbow Minerals Limited reported revenue of 11.7B ZAR in FY2025 versus 19.7B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −12.2%/yr. Reported net income was 330M ZAR in FY2025, compounding −59.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 26.4 · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) $0.4200 · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% · Operating margin 12.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −84%, AFBOF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.3400 to $11.20). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.29
Fair Value $1.72
Bull $2.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$11.18
$10.39
$9.90
76
Gordon GGM
$6.95
$10.89
$15.10
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$6.95
$9.94
$13.16
67
All 10 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.6700
$1.49
$1.91
65
PEG = 1.0
$0.2400
$0.3400
$0.4500
57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$6.95
$10.89
$15.10
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$6.95
$9.94
$13.16
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.26
$1.68
$2.10
63
P/S Multiple
$1.26
$1.68
$2.10
58
P/B Multiple
$1.26
$1.68
$2.10
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$8.36
$11.20
$16.72
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$11.18
$10.39
$9.90
76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.9500
$1.36
$1.77
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
43
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
19/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
’14
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’17
’18
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’20
’21
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−39.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−39.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−39.1% vs −14.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.58% → −5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 439 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.10 SAR | 67.21 SAR | +10% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥17.08 | ¥19.15 | +12% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹588.95 | ₹647.85 | +10% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥57.18 | ¥29.56 | −48% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,116,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −42% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 521.00 | kr 464.45 | −11% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥35.19 | ¥38.71 | +10% |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$12.06 | C$4.46 | −63% |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥46.90 | ¥23.62 | −50% |
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹266.35 | ₹655.92 | +146% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.72 versus the last price from Jun 16, 2026 of $11.07, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFBOF?
Our model-based fair value for African Rainbow Minerals Limited is $1.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 16, 2026): $11.07.
What is the quality score of AFBOF?
African Rainbow Minerals Limited has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.29, optimistic scenario $2.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the African Rainbow Minerals Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.72, about −84% upside versus the last price from Jun 16, 2026 of $11.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.29, optimistic scenario $2.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
African Rainbow Minerals Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.8B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For African Rainbow Minerals Limited it is $1.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.07. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is African Rainbow Minerals Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AFBOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.07, fair value $1.72, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFBOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.72). For African Rainbow Minerals Limited the two are $9.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is African Rainbow Minerals Limited worth?
The market values African Rainbow Minerals Limited at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.07; our models calculate a fair value of $1.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFBOF?
Our models span a range for African Rainbow Minerals Limited: cautious scenario $1.29, base $1.72, optimistic $2.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFBOF?
African Rainbow Minerals Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.72 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for African Rainbow Minerals Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to African Rainbow Minerals Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is African Rainbow Minerals Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.07, calculated fair value $1.72 (−84%), Quality Score 41/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFBOF calculated?
We run African Rainbow Minerals Limited through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. African Rainbow Minerals Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 16, 2026 and stands at $11.07. Our model-based fair value is $1.72, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with African Rainbow Minerals Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF) come from?
Earnings per share at African Rainbow Minerals Limited grew +15.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin −7.2 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +17.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of African Rainbow Minerals Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
The market capitalisation of African Rainbow Minerals Limited is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of African Rainbow Minerals Limited is 0.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
Earnings per share at African Rainbow Minerals Limited are $0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
The net margin of African Rainbow Minerals Limited is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of African Rainbow Minerals Limited is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of African Rainbow Minerals Limited is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
The operating margin of African Rainbow Minerals Limited is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
Revenue at African Rainbow Minerals Limited is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF)?
Earnings per share at African Rainbow Minerals Limited are growing +231% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF) generate?
The free cash flow of African Rainbow Minerals Limited is −210M ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does African Rainbow Minerals Limited (AFBOF) hold?
African Rainbow Minerals Limited holds more cash than debt, 6.6B ZAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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