AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of AFC Gamma Inc $5.22, price $3.48, upside +50.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.02 – $8.72 · fair‑value band $3.89 – $6.87 · the $3.48 price screens below the $5.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Advanced Flower Capital Inc. originates, structures, underwrites, invests in, and manages senior secured loans and other types of mortgage loans and debt securities for established companies operating in the cannabis industry.
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Advanced Flower Capital Inc. originates, structures, underwrites, invests in, and manages senior secured loans and other types of mortgage loans and debt securities for established companies operating in the cannabis industry. It primarily originates loans structured as senior loans secured by real estate, equipment, cash flows, and licenses and/or other assets of the loan parties to the extent permitted by applicable laws and the regulations governing such loan parties. The company was formerly known as AFC Gamma, Inc. and changed its name to Advanced Flower Capital Inc. in October 2024. Advanced Flower Capital Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG) currently trades at $3.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.22, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $6.39 per share, and 4 of the 5 models we run sit above the $3.48 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.79, and 1 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.89 (bear) to $6.87 (bull), the price of $3.48 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AFC Gamma Inc reported revenue of $31.3M in FY2025 versus $38.1M in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$20.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $80.7M · P/E ratio 18.3 · P/S ratio 4.18 · EPS (TTM) $0.1900 · Dividend yield 7.2% · Net margin −66.0% · Return on equity −1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 50%, AFCG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.89Fair Value $5.22Bull $6.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−39.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
55.2% (2021) → −43.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+50% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−17% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)55% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.22 versus a price of $3.48, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AFCG?
Our model-based fair value for AFC Gamma Inc is $5.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.48.
What is the quality score of AFCG?
AFC Gamma Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.89, optimistic scenario $6.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AFC Gamma Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.22, about +50% upside versus a price of $3.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.89, optimistic scenario $6.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
AFC Gamma Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does AFC Gamma Inc pay a dividend?
AFC Gamma Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AFC Gamma Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFCG use?
Our models discount AFC Gamma Inc at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AFC Gamma Inc that is +7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AFC Gamma Inc grew +22.2 % a year. The price currently implies +7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AFC Gamma Inc (+7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.92 %: that much free cash flow AFC Gamma Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AFC Gamma Inc it is $5.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.48. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AFC Gamma Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AFCG trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.48, fair value $5.22, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFCG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.22). For AFC Gamma Inc the two are $1.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AFC Gamma Inc worth?
The market values AFC Gamma Inc at about $80.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.48; our models calculate a fair value of $5.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFCG?
Our models span a range for AFC Gamma Inc: cautious scenario $3.89, base $5.22, optimistic $6.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFCG?
AFC Gamma Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
Balance-sheet figures for AFC Gamma Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.8%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFCG from its 52-week high?
AFC Gamma Inc trades at $3.48, about 10% below its 52-week high of $3.86 and 72% above the low of $2.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AFC Gamma Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AFC Gamma Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.48, calculated fair value $5.22 (+50%), Quality Score 52/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFCG calculated?
We run AFC Gamma Inc through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. AFC Gamma Inc currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $3.48. Our model-based fair value is $5.22, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AFC Gamma Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of AFC Gamma Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
The market capitalisation of AFC Gamma Inc is $80.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AFC Gamma Inc is 4.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
Earnings per share at AFC Gamma Inc are $0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
The dividend yield of AFC Gamma Inc is 7.2% (payout 132%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
The net margin of AFC Gamma Inc is −66.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AFC Gamma Inc is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AFC Gamma Inc is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
The operating margin of AFC Gamma Inc is 54.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
Revenue at AFC Gamma Inc is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG)?
Earnings per share at AFC Gamma Inc are growing +172% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AFC Gamma Inc (AFCG) carry?
The net debt of AFC Gamma Inc is $58.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026