Advanced Flower Capital Inc (AFCG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $78.4M
Advanced Flower Capital Inc
AFCG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from $6.23 to $5.28 (−15.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −6.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 90% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.05 – $8.86 · fair‑value band $4.93 – $5.79 · the $2.78 price screens below the $5.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Advanced Flower Capital Inc (AFCG) currently trades at $2.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.28, implying the stock looks roughly 89.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $2.7M. Revenue grew 10.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.9%. Net debt stands at $58.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.93 (bear case) to $5.79 (bull case); at $2.78, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 90%, AFCG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($6.12) versus Growth DCF ($1.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. originates, structures, underwrites, invests in, and manages senior secured loans and other types of mortgage loans and debt securities for established companies operating in the cannabis industry.
Full company description
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. originates, structures, underwrites, invests in, and manages senior secured loans and other types of mortgage loans and debt securities for established companies operating in the cannabis industry. It primarily originates loans structured as senior loans secured by real estate, equipment, cash flows, and licenses and/or other assets of the loan parties to the extent permitted by applicable laws and the regulations governing such loan parties. The company was formerly known as AFC Gamma, Inc. and changed its name to Advanced Flower Capital Inc. in October 2024. Advanced Flower Capital Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Advanced Flower Capital Inc reported revenue of $31.3M in FY2025 versus $38.1M in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$20.7M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Asset Management · 971 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fondul Proprietatea SA FP | $0.0420 | $0.0800 | +90% |
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,136 | $465.75 | -59% |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $124.56 | $16.35 | -87% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 423.70 | kr 847.40 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$62.45 | C$10.12 | -84% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $100.94 | $44.88 | -56% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 532.50 | kr 1,065 | +100% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹242.98 | ₹40.19 | -83% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 320.98 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹10,398 | ₹9,202 | -12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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