American Financial Group (AFGE) Fair Value & Analysis
Financials · US · Market cap $9.9B
American Financial Group
AFGE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from $17.54 to $17.71 (+1.0%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +2.3% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.92 – $20.98 · fair‑value band $13.28 – $22.14 · the $16.15 price screens below the $17.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
American Financial Group (AFGE) currently trades at $16.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.71, implying the stock looks roughly 9.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Net debt stands at $93.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.28 (bear case) to $22.14 (bull case); at $16.15, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at 100% fair-value upside, at 10%, AFGE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($12.76) versus Asset-Based ($5.28). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
American Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through Property and Casualty Insurance, Annuity, Run-Off Long-Term Care and Life, and Other segments.
Full company description
American Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through Property and Casualty Insurance, Annuity, Run-Off Long-Term Care and Life, and Other segments. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks and recreational vehicles, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other property coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, general liability, executive liability, professional liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets and customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for leasing and financing institutions, surety and fidelity products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers, as well as through employee agents. It also provides traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities to the retail, financial institutions, and education markets; and engages in the commercial real estate operations in Cincinnati, Whitefield, New Hampshire, Chesapeake Bay, Charleston, and Palm Beach. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Financial Group reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $842M in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Financials · 3352 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Insurance” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Financials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 540755 540755 | ₹356.55 | ₹713.10 | +100% |
| 500271 500271 | ₹1,498 | ₹416.36 | -72% |
| NRCP NRCP | 0.9400 PHP | 1.88 PHP | +100% |
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCKK | $12.00 | $24.00 | +100% |
| CGABL CGABL | $16.46 | $10.72 | -35% |
| Unum Group UNMA | $21.88 | $37.30 | +70% |
| Affiliated Managers Group MGR | $20.15 | $36.48 | +81% |
| LTG LTG | 14.30 PHP | 28.60 PHP | +100% |
| LLPC LLPC | £1.47 | £1.03 | -30% |
| Hercules Capital, Inc HCXY | $25.16 | $50.32 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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