American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of American Financial Group, Inc. $13.53, price $16.77, upside -19.3%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.92 – $20.98 · fair‑value band $8.42 – $16.91 · the $16.77 price screens above the $13.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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American Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through Property and Casualty Insurance, Annuity, Run-Off Long-Term Care and Life, and Other segments.
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American Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through Property and Casualty Insurance, Annuity, Run-Off Long-Term Care and Life, and Other segments. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks and recreational vehicles, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other property coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, general liability, executive liability, professional liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets and customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for leasing and financing institutions, surety and fidelity products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers, as well as through employee agents. It also provides traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities to the retail, financial institutions, and education markets; and engages in the commercial real estate operations in Cincinnati, Whitefield, New Hampshire, Chesapeake Bay, Charleston, and Palm Beach. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock analysis
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) currently trades at $16.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.53, 19.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $13.18 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $16.77 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.45, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.42 (bear) to $16.91 (bull), the price of $16.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
American Financial Group, Inc. reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $842M in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.9B · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Free cash flow $1.4B · Net debt $93.0M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −19%, AFGE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.42Fair Value $13.53Bull $16.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 42 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.5% vs 7.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 13%
Compare American Financial Group, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Insurance” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Financials · 3207 stocks
Beats the sector median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)10.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 59
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Financial Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFGE
Frequently asked questions
Is American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.53 versus a price of $16.77, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFGE?
Our model-based fair value for American Financial Group, Inc. is $13.53 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.77.
What is the quality score of AFGE?
American Financial Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.53 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.42, optimistic scenario $16.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Financial Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.53, about −19% upside versus a price of $16.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.42, optimistic scenario $16.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does American Financial Group, Inc. pay a dividend?
American Financial Group, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.71% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Financial Group, Inc. it is $13.53 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $16.77. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Financial Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, AFGE trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.77, fair value $13.53, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFGE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.53). For American Financial Group, Inc. the two are $3.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Financial Group, Inc. worth?
The market values American Financial Group, Inc. at about $9.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $16.77; our models calculate a fair value of $13.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFGE?
Our models span a range for American Financial Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $8.42, base $13.53, optimistic $16.91 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $16.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Financial Group, Inc. (as of Oct 3, 2026): debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFGE from its 52-week high?
American Financial Group, Inc. trades at $16.77, about 8% below its 52-week high of $18.25 and 7% above the low of $15.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Financial Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Financials) we also value NRCP, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, CGABL, BOCHGR, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Financial Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $16.77, calculated fair value $13.53 (−19%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFGE calculated?
We run American Financial Group, Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. American Financial Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.77. Our model-based fair value is $13.53, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Financial Group, Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($8.42 to $16.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) come from?
Earnings per share at American Financial Group, Inc. grew +7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin +2.6 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of American Financial Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)?
The market capitalisation of American Financial Group, Inc. is $9.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the dividend yield of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)?
The dividend yield of American Financial Group, Inc. is 6.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)?
The net margin of American Financial Group, Inc. is 10.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Financial Group, Inc. is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) generate?
The free cash flow of American Financial Group, Inc. is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) carry?
The net debt of American Financial Group, Inc. is $93.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026