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AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A $20.23, price $12.36, upside +63.7%, quality 18 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US0323594087

AF AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A

AFSIA · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $20.23 · Strongly undervalued (+64%)
!Quality 18/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +25.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·2.75% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $9.28 to $33.98
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$14.40 $7.88 Fair Value $20.23 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.88 – $14.40 · fair‑value band $9.28 – $33.98 · the $12.36 price screens below the $20.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. operates as a specialty property and casualty insurance provider, offering insurance protection, warranty programs, risk management, and related services.

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AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. operates as a specialty property and casualty insurance provider, offering insurance protection, warranty programs, risk management, and related services. The company provides insurance products and services including general liability, product liability, commercial property and casualty insurance, workers' compensation, surety bond products, legal expense coverage, and commercial auto insurance for sectors such as taxi fleets. Specialized insurance solutions are available for executives, professionals, and financial institutions through divisions such as AmTrust Exec, AmTrust Pro, and AmTrust FI. The company delivers warranty programs, risk management services, and title and escrow services for residential customers, agents, and lenders. It works with agents and wholesale brokers to customize insurance packages and supports risk funding arrangements and program business clients through underwriting subsidiaries. The company serves clients including small local firms, middle market contractors, national home builders, land developers, privately- and publicly-held companies, professionals, financial institutions, small businesses, retailers, manufacturers, wholesalers, developers, business entities, and individuals across a wide range of industries. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in New York.

Stock analysis

AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA) currently trades at $12.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.23, implying the stock looks roughly 38.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $14.61 per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the $12.36 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.81, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $9.28 (bear) to $33.98 (bull), the price of $12.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2017 versus $2.7B in FY2013, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$349M in FY2017.

Key figures

Market cap $2.7B · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.9770 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin −6.0% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 64%, AFSIA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.28 Fair Value $20.23 Bull $33.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $8.48 $16.91 $25.60 67
DDM Multi-Stage $8.48 $14.61 $17.84 67
NCAV (Graham) $8.07 $10.81 $16.13 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.48 $16.91 $25.60 67
DDM Multi-Stage $8.48 $14.61 $17.84 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.07 $10.81 $16.13 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 18/100

Of which business quality 17 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 7
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.5%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.1% (2012) → −7.7% (2017)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2017 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 16 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +64% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.46× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.84× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.45× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)36 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)77 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)55 · sector 50

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Progressive Corporation PGR $206.94 $160.25 −23%
Chubb Limited CB $335.77 $234.73 −30%
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $362.01 $274.42 −24%
The Allstate Corporation ALL $229.50 $316.11 +38%
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥8.07 ¥9.25 +15%
PICC Property and Casualty Company 2328 HK$16.84 HK$18.92 +12%
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$254.29 C$167.46 −34%
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,260 C$3,226 +43%
Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF $165.83 $146.70 −12%
W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB $68.17 $47.08 −31%

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AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A · Fair Value
$20.23 +39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFSIA

Frequently asked questions

Is AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.23 versus a price of $12.36, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AFSIA?
Our model-based fair value for AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is $20.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.36.
What is the quality score of AFSIA?
AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.28, optimistic scenario $33.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.23, about +64% upside versus a price of $12.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.28, optimistic scenario $33.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A pay a dividend?
AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A it is $20.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.36. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AFSIA trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.36, fair value $20.23, a gap of about +64% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFSIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.23). For AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A the two are $7.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A worth?
The market values AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.36; our models calculate a fair value of $20.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFSIA?
Our models span a range for AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A: cautious scenario $9.28, base $20.23, optimistic $33.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFSIA?
AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFSIA from its 52-week high?
AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A trades at $12.36, about 14% below its 52-week high of $14.40 and 5% above the low of $11.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.36, calculated fair value $20.23 (+64%), Quality Score 18/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFSIA calculated?
We run AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $12.36. Our model-based fair value is $20.23, about +64% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (18/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($9.28 to $33.98). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA) come from?
Earnings per share at AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A grew −45.4 % a year from 2006 to 2017. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −42.6 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A

How large is the market capitalisation of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
The market capitalisation of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is 0.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
Earnings per share at AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A are $0.9770 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
The dividend yield of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is 2.8% (payout 34.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
The net margin of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is −6.0% (fiscal year 2017). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
The operating margin of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is −3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA)?
Revenue at AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA) generate?
The free cash flow of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is −$575M (fiscal year 2017). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A (AFSIA) carry?
The net debt of AmTrust Financial Services Inc Pref Series A is $694M (fiscal year 2017). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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